Does anyone ever forecast a mild winter in the east?

[blizzard1024]

I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen

all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold.

This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC

they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter

in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning.

[Quixotic1]

I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen

all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold.

This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC

they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter

in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning.

How 'bout from an amateur?

[Stebo]

I don't think it will be a mild winter for the entire East Coast, but I could see areas South of DC down into the Southeast ending up above normal due to the SE ridge and the lack of significant/continual blocking.

[blizzard1024]

I don't think it will be a mild winter for the entire East Coast, but I could see areas South of DC down into the Southeast ending up above normal due to the SE ridge and the lack of significant/continual blocking.

You missed my point...I simply asked if anyone on this board....Met or Amateur...is forecasting a mild winter in the east. I agree with you that La Nina pumps up

the southeast ridge and tips the scales toward mild in the southeast. But it all depends on the NAO/AO which is nearly impossible to predict. My point is that

it seems that everyone always goes for a colder and snowy winter than normal... especially in the Great Lakes and northeast. Is someone forecasting a mild winter in the

northeast..I'll rephrase it.

[Rainshadow]

You missed my point...I simply asked if anyone on this board....Met or Amateur...is forecasting a mild winter in the east. I agree with you that La Nina pumps up

the southeast ridge and tips the scales toward mild in the southeast. But it all depends on the NAO/AO which is nearly impossible to predict. My point is that

it seems that everyone always goes for a colder and snowy winter than normal... especially in the Great Lakes and northeast. Is someone forecasting a mild winter in the

northeast..I'll rephrase it.

I can't formally outlook, but run an analog series to show what has historically happened in the past for the PHL area based on enso state and fall temps. I don't know if an exactly normal (based on 1981-2010 normals) result qualify, but here is the link:

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1146219

[skierinvermont]

I'm forecasting a pretty mild winter in the eastern 2/3s of the U.S.

Most of New England I would forecast near average. Slightly below in the northern plains. +2-4 PHL to Dallas. +0-2 Providence to Kansas City. February could be the cold month.

[usedtobe]

The CWG forecast normal temps for the winter for DC. CPC forecast warm across the southeast and equal chances across the rest of the east. I thought this year was more of a crap shoot than most years and last year, I thought temps would be warmer than normal which was wrong. Judah Cohen is forecasting above normal temps over the east.

[donsutherland1]

I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen

all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold.

This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC

they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter

in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning.

My view is that the East will generally be on the warm side of normal for the December-February timeframe, though some brief even harsh cold shots are plausible.

-2nd year La Niña: 1954-55, 1971-72, 1974-75 probably offer the best ideas. Given the observed warming since then, one can probably count on temperatures running perhaps a half-degree above the levels of those winters.

- Absence of persistent and severe blocking: It appears that the prolonged period of general strong blockiness ended during the summer. The AO has been mainly positive especially in October and November. The AO made the last two winters remarkable in the East. I don't see that kind of blocking this time around. 2001-02.might offer some insight into the blocking this time around.

-Absense of any cold SSTAs off the East (predominant trough west/east ridge look).

[ORH_wxman]

Chuck forecasted a couple torch winters in the past.

[SnowGoose69]

I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen

all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold.

This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC

they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter

in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning.

I did this year, I did not post it on this site because of issues with disseminating it on a public forum but I mentioned my departures for NYC and the total snow forecast for the winter roughly around +2 or so and 15-16 inches total in the NYC forum some time in early October. My main reasoning was that I thought the NAO would average positive and that last winter the atmosphere may still have had a carry over from the high end moderate El Nino from 2009-2010 which could have very well resulted in the ease at which we got the -NAO and AO in a relatively strong La Nina (something that really had never been seen before). This year I felt the true La Nina impacts were going to show themselves and without a -NAO La Ninas tend to be pretty poor for the Northeast, at least the NYC area and snow. There were quite a few people who went with a mild winter forecast in either 2006-2007 or 2007-2008 I believe, that may have been the one year where I recall seeing the most agreement across the board.

[usedtobe]

My view is that the East will generally be on the warm side of normal for the December-February timeframe, though some brief even harsh cold shots are plausible.

-2nd year La Niña: 1954-55, 1971-72, 1974-75 probably offer the best ideas. Given the observed warming since then, one can probably count on temperatures running perhaps a half-degree above the levels of those winters.

- Absence of persistent and severe blocking: It appears that the prolonged period of general strong blockiness ended during the summer. The AO has been mainly positive especially in October and November. The AO made the last two winters remarkable in the East. I don't see that kind of blocking this time around. 2001-02.might offer some insight into the blocking this time around.

-Absense of any cold SSTAs off the East (predominant trough west/east ridge look).

Don, that sounds like a good forecast. If you're right this will be a bad snow year for the PH and DC croowds. I wish I had made your forecast. I don't like the really strong positive ao we're seeing. It can switch but will need help from a ssw event or for some other mechanism to weaken the polar vortex. The northern Annular mode this year looks strongly postive. I'm still hoping we can squeeze out one month with a negative nao later in the winter but December looks lost to me.

[donsutherland1]

Don, that sounds like a good forecast. If you're right this will be a bad snow year for the PH and DC croowds. I wish I had made your forecast. I don't like the really strong positive ao we're seeing. It can switch but will need help from a ssw event or for some other mechanism to weaken the polar vortex. The northern Annular mode this year looks strongly postive. I still hoping we can squeeze out one month with a negative nao later in the winter but December looks lost to me.

Thanks Wes. I agree that things don't look too good for the AO/NAO.

I believe NYC will join the DCA-PHL misery crowd this year.

If there's any consolation, I don't think things will be as bad as they were during some of the 1990s' blow-torch winters.

Very best wishes always.

[Chicago WX]

Chuck forecasted a couple torch winters in the past.

He forecasted 2006-07 to be the warmest winter on record I seem to recall. It was a good call until February happened.

I'm just a dumb weenie, but I went with a warm December for my area (central Indiana), then a cooler Jan and Feb for this winter. I'm not so sure about the cooler Jan or Feb at this point, but we'll see.

[Analog96]

I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen

all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold.

This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC

they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter

in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning.

CPC does not "always go mild." What they do is far worse! They just plaster 3/4 of the map in EQUAL CHANCES every year.

[isohume]

CPC does not "always go mild." What they do is far worse! They just plaster 3/4 of the map in EQUAL CHANCES every year.

Haha...that's an exaggeration.

[OKpowdah]

There have been plenty of warm winter outlooks in the past

[WxMidwest]

The CWG forecast normal temps for the winter for DC. CPC forecast warm across the southeast and equal chances across the rest of the east. I thought this year was more of a crap shoot than most years and last year, I thought temps would be warmer than normal which was wrong. Judah Cohen is forecasting above normal temps over the east.

I remember Judah going warm last year, then needed to change it. This is one of the reasons he was experimenting with a autumnal snow advancement index (as is snowfall area in Northern Hemisphere/Eurasia). The Weekly Snowfall Area for Week #45 (2011) according to recent data from Rutgers snow Lab is Ranked #2 behind 1973 since records have been taken in 1966. I dunno how this will play out, but if the stratospheric temps (70hPa), which have been close to all time low line for 45-60 days, may just snap back up in a big fashion.

[Rainshadow]

I remember Judah going warm last year, then needed to change it. This is one of the reasons he was experimenting with a autumnal snow advancement index (as is snowfall area in Northern Hemisphere/Eurasia). The Weekly Snowfall Area for Week #45 (2011) according to recent data from Rutgers snow Lab is Ranked #2 behind 1973 since records have been taken in 1966. I dunno how this will play out, but if the stratospheric temps (70hPa), which have been close to all time low line for 45-60 days, may just snap back up in a big fashion.

I was under the impression (maybe wrong) that October NH snow/ice cover was more important as a pattern setter than November's. Not to imby this but this has been the case for PHL wrt seasonal snows, greater percentage of above normal (regardless of Nov) snows when October NH snow/ice cover was above average. BTW lowest percentage when both were below average. The winter 1973-4 PHL average temperature was 35.4F which is exactly the current 1981-2010 normal. Snowfall was 20.8", current normal 22.4".

[Ji]

Roger Smith FTW

[Quixotic1]

Most of the forecasts I've seen, went below climo for temps and above for precip and quite a few of them based it upon getting the blocking. One of the few exceptions I can think of was Roger Smith's forecast, though he went below for February. A lot of folks appear to be gunshy about calling "winter cancel" after last year's -AO/NAO ruined a bunch of forecasts which is understandable. If it does work out Roger's way, then kudos to him for going against the grain.

"Roger Smith FTW"

Ji, you beat me to it.

[Analog96]

Haha...that's an exaggeration.

3/5?

[nwohweather]

I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen

all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold.

This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC

they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter

in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning.

I never have but I'm only 19 and been legit forecasting since winter of 07-08. Really each one of these winters have been big and even the El Nino was 5" above average

[OSUmetstud]

looks like about 1/2 the US is covered in equal chances this year from the CPC.

[isohume]

3/5?

I wouldn't hazard a guess. Unless someone has calculated the avg spatial percentage of CPC's outlooks, I guess we wont know an actual number. However, based on my casual observations of their maps the past few years, there are times when large areas of the CONUS are EC and others where relatively little is EC.

[Lee]

I remember Judah going warm last year, then needed to change it. This is one of the reasons he was experimenting with a autumnal snow advancement index (as is snowfall area in Northern Hemisphere/Eurasia). The Weekly Snowfall Area for Week #45 (2011) according to recent data from Rutgers snow Lab is Ranked #2 behind 1973 since records have been taken in 1966. I dunno how this will play out, but if the stratospheric temps (70hPa), which have been close to all time low line for 45-60 days, may just snap back up in a big fashion.

There must be something to the "just October" data because if the year you're showing to back up your point is any proof; UGGHH!

One of the least snowy ever around here, and mild throughout the east.

http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.pl

I have a buddy(B.S. natural sciences) that has been looking @ the same thing and still thinks it will lead to a cold winter. '73-74 was a strong first year nina as most on here know, so, who knows, maybe the scales can still be tipped but, I'm in doubt. I've always thought with a nina the sooner we can get blocking going, the better as this would halt the nina from overwhelming the pattern. Because, once that has happened it is usually pretty hard to get decent, dominate blocking established.

This may be why aquiring the above normal snowfall in siberia early makes the difference.

[Lee]

looks like about 1/2 the US is covered in equal chances this year from the CPC.

The one they made in October had more EC as they also had the SE with it.

[isohume]

The one they made in October had more EC as they also had the SE with it.

That's not surprising, considering it was a month earlier.

[QVectorman]

I remember Judah going warm last year, then needed to change it. This is one of the reasons he was experimenting with a autumnal snow advancement index (as is snowfall area in Northern Hemisphere/Eurasia). The Weekly Snowfall Area for Week #45 (2011) according to recent data from Rutgers snow Lab is Ranked #2 behind 1973 since records have been taken in 1966. I dunno how this will play out, but if the stratospheric temps (70hPa), which have been close to all time low line for 45-60 days, may just snap back up in a big fashion.

It's the snowfall in Siberia for October...Not autumn and Northern Hemisphere. His SAI is based on snow advancement south of 60N equatorward during October.

[NJwinter23]

I was under the impression (maybe wrong) that October NH snow/ice cover was more important as a pattern setter than November's. Not to imby this but this has been the case for PHL wrt seasonal snows, greater percentage of above normal (regardless of Nov) snows when October NH snow/ice cover was above average. BTW lowest percentage when both were below average. The winter 1973-4 PHL average temperature was 35.4F which is exactly the current 1981-2010 normal. Snowfall was 20.8", current normal 22.4".

Tony,

This year should be a very interesting case since we seemed to recover dramatically from below normal snow cover to above average at the turn of the month/first week of November. The Eurasian side specifically with the whole October snow/AO theory

[easternsnowman]

With the people forecasting a mild winter I now feel comfortable we will have a cold one...lol!