CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Previous discussion. Continued here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 GFS ensembles still pretty cool in the LR.. much slower to retrograde the PNA ridge than the op is, but they still do manage to retrograde it late in the run post 300. I think this is what Wes has been talking about in the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Just hit 62 here but that'll about do it as we have a gentle breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 GFS ensembles still pretty cool in the LR.. much slower to retrograde the PNA ridge than the op is, but they still do manage to retrograde it late in the run post 300. I think this is what Wes has been talking about in the main forum. All the models retrograde this, that's what we were saying this morning. The question is whether or not the ridge is a flat top, or more amplified. The GFS ensembles keep it a little more amplified, and the pattern at the end of the run has shades of Dec '07 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 All the models retrograde this, that's what we were saying this morning. The question is whether or not the ridge is a flat top, or more amplified. The GFS ensembles keep it a little more amplified, and the pattern at the end of the run has shades of Dec '07 imo. Yes agree, More of a gradient look that should yield some SWFE chances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The new GFS gets an actual cold shot in here now days 6 to 11 roughly so that is a plus, albeit dry except LES, which could nail Kevin on his trek west or home. A lot hinges on that southwest cutoff. If that opens up no telling what may happen ...could still have a big storm somewhere. The op GFS doesn't have much respect for it and just crushes that energy. Just hit 62 here but that'll about do it as we have a gentle breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 All the models retrograde this, that's what we were saying this morning. The question is whether or not the ridge is a flat top, or more amplified. The GFS ensembles keep it a little more amplified, and the pattern at the end of the run has shades of Dec '07 imo. Yep plenty of chances for snow as long as the SE ridge doesn't get exceptionally amplified. It does like like all the models want to retrograde that PNA ridge though and develop a -PNA +EPO in the long range post 300hrs. It's a matter of timing when this occurs (most likely between D10 and D15) and then how amplified the SE ridge ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Yep plenty of chances for snow as long as the SE ridge doesn't get exceptionally amplified. It does like like all the models want to retrograde that PNA ridge though and develop a -PNA +EPO in the long range post 300hrs. It's a matter of timing when this occurs and then how amplified the SE ridge ends up being. Plenty is overdoing it I think. There's a total lack of systems on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I don't think that sw energy is just gonna bury itself and never be a player, or get squished like the GFS shows. Now for all I know it phases and cuts inside, but I have my doubts about the storm-less look. Plenty is overdoing it I think. There's a total lack of systems on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 We certainly don't need that SE ridge on muscle milk to dampen our chances at some winter precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Plenty is overdoing it I think. There's a total lack of systems on most models. If we do end up with a gradient pattern though that would probably change due to the temperature gradient... op GFS does have an example of one such storm in the LR D12-14.. just an example of what could happen in such a pattern. Op GFS is too warm but ensembles would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 I don't think that sw energy is just gonna bury itself and never be a player, or get squished like the GFS shows. Now for all I know it phases and cuts inside, but I have my doubts about the storm-less look. The ensemble mean doesn't always pic up those specific chances either. Just look at the 06z ensembles on E-wall. Every mode perturbation has something different. Put that on a smoothed out mean, and it won't show much. What I like to look for, is any trough shown on a model(could be a storm chance) , or a rather sharp ridge that sticks out due north into New England (could be a CAD signal). Maybe it will be dry, but I doubt it will be, especially if that trough sets up in the southwest towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I thought the GFS and it's ensembles were fine. Some cold, lifting out, and not a return to the severe torch. The GOAK ridging wants to wax and wane. Gradient pattern signal as we move into mid December on the ensembles, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I just read Wes's thread about the Rossby wave train...how bout we stick a fork in ourselves...cause we're done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I just read Wes's thread about the Rossby wave train...how bout we stick a fork in ourselves...cause we're done! Wes's posts are for the mid atlantic..they have nothing do with New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 All my long range statements are wags as I think most are from others. We still don't know enough about the various forcing to really know for sure what is going to happen past day 5. However, this pattern blows and until we see signs of high latitude blocking your and my neck of the woods aren't going to see much snow. For new england, the pattern is not that bad. They can survive, ji can't without a negative ao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Once we get Kev's locked accumulating snow event this coming week things should get better and that should set the pattern straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Heads up: this pattern is very similar to the ones in both December 2007 and 2008 when SNE cashed in on SWFEs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I personally see nothing in these images NOT to like..Would suggest much colder weather then what the area was receiving prior..From the Northern Mid Atlantic on Northeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Heads up: this pattern is very similar to the ones in both December 2007 and 2008 when SNE cashed in on SWFEs And these might be hard to see on ensembles, except when realizing the potential looking at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The pattern is fine. Weenies will be consoled once we have a well defined storm in the models to track. That's the only thing missing at this point ... which could be the topic of another discussion ... the pattern gets cold, but with such a tight gradient, model guidance can't amplify any disturbances in the flow around toward New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I just read Wes's thread about the Rossby wave train...how bout we stick a fork in ourselves...cause we're done! "being done" calls in late November FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Lot of cold air getting dumped into the upper mid west at the end of the Euro op run 498dm right at the border.... ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I personally see nothing in these images NOT to like..Would suggest much colder weather then what the area was receiving prior..From the Northern Mid Atlantic on Northeast! 1.5 weeks away FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I tried. And these might be hard to see on ensembles, except when realizing the potential looking at H5. When I opened the thread, all I saw was the back and forth with Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Thats one sweet euro run today IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Thats one sweet euro run today IMHO. endless summer ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The pattern is fine. Weenies will be consoled once we have a well defined storm in the models to track. That's the only thing missing at this point ... which could be the topic of another discussion ... the pattern gets cold, but with such a tight gradient, model guidance can't amplify any disturbances in the flow around toward New England There's plenty to track it's just not the stuff some want to see here. All weather is interesting and eventually the rubber band snaps and we'll get the below normal weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 BTW the December 7th threat is right where we want it on the GFS right now. Similar to 07 and 08, it originates from energy over the SW US and tracks toward the Ohio Valley. However we have this massive trough over the Northeast that shreds anything coming our way. We get a weak surface reflection to our southeast before it's swept away. My guess is that the trough becomes a little less overbearing over the next few days, and also slides west a little, while the southeast ridge becomes a little stronger. This could end up being a SWF overrunning event for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 1.5 weeks away FTL And when does MET winter start? December 1st? And when does it begin to step down temperature wise to more seasonal? Looks to be right after the storm lifts into the great lakes ... According to all the ensemble guidance the pattern is changing to a more colder pattern..EVEN if just seasonal temps- that will be able to get the snow chances involved if we have storms within the time frame to track etc...Winter has not yet begun and yet we see people all over from New England to the Northern Mid Atlantic to the Mid Atlantic already cancelling winter! Makes no sense at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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