turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Up to 42 °F and sunny! Doesn't get much better this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yes, 12z Euro, I'll take the one inch of snow you're giving the western suburbs of Milwaukee Wednesday morning, but I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yes, 12z Euro, I'll take the one inch of snow you're giving the western suburbs of Milwaukee Wednesday morning, but I'll believe it when I see it. It doesn't show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The 00z EURO actually has something that looks alot like the Feb 5-6th 2008 storm. Even the 00z GGEM looks nice around the 19-20th I got dumped on by that storm. Wet snow, 31°-32° throughout most of the storm. 15" total. Torching good today, up to 42°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 6z GFS is infuriating. Makes sure the D7 s/w over the SW stalls until the cold air over the Lakes has moved out. Then it ejects out as a rainstorm. F U GFS. 12z ECMWF does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yeah, just looked that up, craziness! Hope to some day see a storm like the January blizzard of '78, with hurricane force winds and everything. Now the blizzard of '78, THAT was a changeover event. From rain and upper 30s to heavy snow and temps plummeting to the single digits in hours. You know whats REALLY funny though? The official total on Jan 26/27, 1978 was only 8.2" at DTW. The snow depth post storm was 15", and it was certainly a true blizzard, but not even 9" of snowfall officially (there were a few inches of snow on Jan 25th before the storm hit actually, so the 3-day total was 10.1"). Its funny because the 1978 storm lives on in SUCH lore in this area, yet for Detroit officially, it doesnt even make the top 40 largest snowstorms list! Just goes to show you there is a lot more to a storm than just total snowfall amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yeah, that winter can serve as a reminder that winter can be backloaded, even with a relatively crappy December. I believe that February offered up four storms in the 6-14" range for S Wisconsin. I'm not sure how bad that Dec was, however. Not to disappoint Bing Crosby, but if you look at history a lot more winters seem to be backloaded than frontloaded in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 In the meantime while things are quiet and I'm bored to tears, my next project is going to be a look back at the winter of 1977-78. Coming soon to a sub-forum near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Now February 5th-6th, 2008 is definitely a personal favorite of mine. Only 3-5" fell in Detroit proper (amounts dropped off significantly south of here and increased significantly north of here), which isn't impressive, but the amazing part about it was that all the snow fell in 2 hours. It was also technically an overachiever, since intially only 1-2" was expected. Much better storm locally than the GHD storm, President's Day 2011 storm and New Year Eve storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It is 49 at the airport here. Dang. I hope I don't lose my driveway mat again. It is a good thing I never forked out $45 for a snowmobile trail permit. As long as it stays like this it won't be worth the money. We need 5 feet of snow to cover up all the big sharp rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Now February 5th-6th, 2008 is definitely a personal favorite of mine. Only 3-5" fell in Detroit proper (amounts dropped off significantly south of here and increased significantly north of here), which isn't impressive, but the amazing part about it was that all the snow fell in 2 hours. It was also technically an overachiever, since intially only 1-2" was expected. Much better storm locally than the GHD storm, President's Day 2011 storm and New Year Eve storm IMO. Same here, although for a different reason (long duration, foot and a half accumulation storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Blowtorch warmth up here in northern Michigan today. Got to 45 in Gaylord...with lots of upper 40s nearby. Traverse City made it to 49, with Alpena at 48 (tying the record for the date). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Now February 5th-6th, 2008 is definitely a personal favorite of mine. Only 3-5" fell in Detroit proper (amounts dropped off significantly south of here and increased significantly north of here), which isn't impressive, but the amazing part about it was that all the snow fell in 2 hours. It was also technically an overachiever, since intially only 1-2" was expected. Much better storm locally than the GHD storm, President's Day 2011 storm and New Year Eve storm IMO. That storm was extremely scenic in that it went from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow, so there were icicles and snow pasted on every tree branch. The change from ice to snow was quick and the snow was heavy, with a good inch+ in the first hour, but it didnt all fall in just the 2 hours. We had 2.9" imby with 2.6" at DTW. It buried the Flint area, but despite this storm and the New Years storm, it was very hard to complain about something in that winter! Yes, Feb 6, 2008 was an overachiever, but I have to ask, how on earth did that beat out Presidents Day 2011 for you!? Presidents day was forecast at 1-3" and we got 10", including a period of 2-3"/hr snowfall rates and thunder and lightning. For me I would personally rank the storms you mentioned, for mby... Presidents Day 2011 GHD 2011 Feb 6, 2008 Jan 1, 2008 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Blowtorch warmth up here in northern Michigan today. Got to 45 in Gaylord...with lots of upper 40s nearby. Traverse City made it to 49, with Alpena at 48 (tying the record for the date). Wow I didnt even realize it was getting that warm up there! 36 and sunny here, still dusting of snow in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Blowtorch warmth up here in northern Michigan today. Got to 45 in Gaylord...with lots of upper 40s nearby. Traverse City made it to 49, with Alpena at 48 (tying the record for the date). Weird how that works... its 34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Just for giggles and since we're 2 weeks away...what's everyone's prediction for their backyard on Christmas day? I'm in a bit of a doom and gloom mood today, so I'm going with a high of 48º and partly sunny. We'll revisit later to take out the trash. I'll be bold and say 1-2" of snow on the ground, near 30° for a high! I've seen several surprise snow systems before give the area a white Christmas, when it looked like there was no hope days beforehand. Looks like a high of 43° for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That storm was extremely scenic in that it went from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow, so there were icicles and snow pasted on every tree branch. The change from ice to snow was quick and the snow was heavy, with a good inch+ in the first hour, but it didnt all fall in just the 2 hours. We had 2.9" imby with 2.6" at DTW. It buried the Flint area, but despite this storm and the New Years storm, it was very hard to complain about something in that winter! Yes, Feb 6, 2008 was an overachiever, but I have to ask, how on earth did that beat out Presidents Day 2011 for you!? Presidents day was forecast at 1-3" and we got 10", including a period of 2-3"/hr snowfall rates and thunder and lightning. President's Day was good (8" here), but mostly the first few hours of it. It was the second half of it (deformation snow) that was more or less disappointing since the large scale ascent failed to come together, most of the snow fell with the front-end thumping/WAA, thus it was largely a steady moderate snow. I didn't get the extreme snowfall rates or thunder/lighting either, though it was obviously all around me since people in the NW suburbs reported it too. February 5th-6th meanwhile was the 2nd heaviest convective non-thundersnow snow I've ever seen (IMO it's hard to beat non-stop 1.5"-2.5" snowfall rates in that short amount of time), behind New Years Eve (I've only seen synoptic thundersnow twice, one of which I only saw the flash of lightning without thunder, and I've seen it once with lake effect snow). Also, I pretty much expected that one (President's DAy 2011) to overachieve. The trend towards a snowier solution began a couple days prior. The EURO and the NOGAPS always had us getting hit pretty good, they were just outliers initially. EDIT: Out of all 4, I would rank it (President's Day 2011 storm) 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Just read the Marquette NWS forecast discussion for the end of the week storm. They said good possibility for a major ice storm. Ice storms are a rarity here. Good thing I chopped that one Spruce tree in my yard that was leaning pretty badly. Any weight on the tree would of took it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 DVN sums it up pretty good in the new AFD. SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS OFFER VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIVE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS WAVE TO GENERATE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ANCHORED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFS HOWEVER...FILLS THIS LOW AND EJECTS A SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT SKIES WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT IS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION. ..KUHL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Wow you got 3"? Just under an inch here that has settled to half an inch. Northern burbs owned this snowfall. But of course our wonderful models had us high and dry with the best snow SOUTH OF TOLEDO. Well, the best snow was well south of Toledo. If you look at the visible satellite, you can still see the narrow swath of snow on the ground from Fort Wayne to a few counties south of Toledo that the models had hinted at for a few days. It's just that the models did not pick up on the northward extent of the precip shield in Michigan until later in the game on Thursday, but they were right in predicting where the heaviest band would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 At least the pattern looks to start getting more active with time. Better it to be stormy and mild then cold and suppressed. I think this could end up being a winter that brings a couple of good storms with just cold enough air to create a couple of good storms. Have to admit that the other morning having some white on the lawn did look nice. As sparty would say about summer...it will get hot in time same goes for winter, the cold and snow will come.Just weird considering that all that arctic sea ice melt would have caused more blocking....the cold air will keep fleeting. And with the AO status, when it does tank it's gonna get wicked cold somewhere in the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I think you are the first person that actually posted stats to back up reasoning for a below average season for your location. So props for looking up stats. Havent done so for DTW, wouldnt matter anyway as they are above normal, but im wondering if lack of LES plays into it in CLE? Have to disagree with the last line, long ways to go before late December and wont know til it happens. Do agree though that a majority of the "regular public" like their snow for Christmas. I cant STAND that line you ALWAYS hear from winter-haters "id like it to snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas day then melt and get warm on the 26th". its very logical too, Dec 26th is only a month BEFORE the dead of winter lol. Yeah, most winter haters just want the Norman Rockwell Christmas scene and then be done with it. I'd say that fits the bill for a good chunk of the general public. Front loaded winters here tend be the ones that end up with normal to above normal snow. Makes sense, early season cold spells over the warmest lake temps produce the most amount of snow early in the season. A warmer second half of winter keeps the lakes from freezing and produces even more snow. Dry early starts to winter just cool the lake down without producing snow and then if the pattern switches in January with an arctic blast, the lake freezes over and significantly hampers snow chances. This is why you'll see the stats for above average snowfall winters lean heavily in favor of front loaded winters here, with late start winters mostly having an uphill battle catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The pattern is just god awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Anyone know how Lake Michigan's temps are faring? Close to average by now? I know they were warmer during most of the fall due to the warm summer, but you would hope the last week or two of at least near normal temps for early December cooled them off to the point they won't make a big difference in precip type except for those right along the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 They just shut down the buoy on L Mich ...on Dec 5th it was still 46F. Maybe 43F now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Anyone know how Lake Michigan's temps are faring? Close to average by now? I know they were warmer during most of the fall due to the warm summer, but you would hope the last week or two of at least near normal temps for early December cooled them off to the point they won't make a big difference in precip type except for those right along the lake. Still probably warm enough for ptype issues in any given storm for now. 42-45 on the west side, still >45 on the east. Of course I don't know what's considered normal for this time of year either. I know that's over 2 days old, so it might be cooler now. I'm not sure if the updates only come every 48 or 72 hours or something, but that's what's displayed on the NWS Lake Michigan page. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/greatlakes/?c=tmp&l=lm&p=a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Blowtorch warmth up here in northern Michigan today. Got to 45 in Gaylord...with lots of upper 40s nearby. Traverse City made it to 49, with Alpena at 48 (tying the record for the date). Its been a terrible start to the winter in northern lower. Is it just me or has this been one of the latest starts ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Up to 42 °F and sunny! Doesn't get much better this time of year. Sure it could be 15 degrees and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 They just shut down the buoy on L Mich ...on Dec 5th it was still 46F. Maybe 43F now? Yeah, based on the map you displayed it looks like sections of the near-shore waters are nearly down to 40F now, which is a pretty good dip from 46. Obviously Bowme and Downtown will have p-type issues with storms that occur with temps in the 30-34F range. Still, considering we probably won't get our next sig snow until 7-10 days, by then hopefully it is not a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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