Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Monthly and yearly snowfall for Chicago. Decade averages at the bottom of the chart. Official sites/locations (1884 to present), as per the Chicago NWS site. October 1884 to January 1, 1887: Roanoke Building (formerly Major Block), SE Corner Madison and LaSalle Street January 1, 1887 to February 1, 1890: Chicago Opera House, SW Corner Clark and Washington February 1, 1890 to July 1, 1905: Auditorium Theater, NE Corner Wabash and Congress July 1, 1905 to December 31, 1925: U.S. Court House, 219 S Dearborn St January 1, 1926 to June 30, 1942: University of Chicago (Rosenwald Hall), 58th St and University Ave July 1, 1942 to January 17, 1980: Midway Airport (South Terminal Building), 6200 South Cicero Ave January 17, 1980 to March 7, 1985: O’Hare International Airport (International Terminal Building) March 7, 1985 to January 18, 1989: O’Hare International Airport (Hardstand Operational Building) January 19, 1989 to February 1, 1996: O’Hare International Airport (O’Hare Corporate Tower, Rosemont) February 1, 1996 to present: O’Hare International AP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Season snowfall amounts from 1884-85 to 2010-11. Season snowfall ranges and number of times of each occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I thought I would entertain a few more statistics to go along with this... 16.7% of Cases: 9-24" 16.7% of Cases: 24-29" 15.9% of Cases: 29-34" 18.3% of Cases: 34-41" 15.1% of Cases: 41-52" 17.5% of Cases: More than 52" We're going to use the LCL and UCL of the mean to determine an average snowfall range from this data set, which is going to be 34" and 40" respectively. With that being said... 47 Years--Above Average 18 Years--Average 62 Years--Below Average Going to get rid of 1880-1890 decade, not a full decade of data.. So, we should expect (by rounding) 4 years above average, 1 year @ about average, and 5 years below average per decade. Good decades were 1960-1970 and 1970-1980, bad were 1910-1920/1920-1930/1930-1940/1940-1950, rest were about normal. Longest streak of below average winters: 1918/1919-1924/1925 (7) Longest streak of above average winters: 1973/1974-1979/1980 (7) About 1/2 the time, below average winters will occur consecutively (14/29 below average periods). About 1/4 of the time, there will be 3 or more below average winters consecutively (7/29 below average periods) About 1/4 of the time, above average winters will occur consecutively (7/27 above average periods) A little over 1/5 of the time, there will be 3 or more above average winters consecutively (5/27 above average periods) So, if we look at what is happening currently, we are at 4 consecutive above average snowfall years (1 period). Looking back, this streak has only been matched or beaten three other times.. 1) 1893/94-1896/97: 4 2) 1958/59-1962/63: 5 3) 1973/74-1979/80: 7 Anyway, I'm done for tonight. These are just little numbers I liked to play around with. They really don't have too much importance to anyone unless you find statistics interesting. Later, I might try to see how much correlation there is between benchmarks (e.g. how many times does above average snow in "x" month lead to above average snow for the year). Also, I might try and see how well different STATISTICAL forecasting methods work on Chicago's snowfall. Looking at the graph of the data, I think a model that incorporates seasonality (such as Holt-Winters) may actually do "okay". By all means, it will not come close to what can be done by meteorologists, but it may be interesting nonetheless. And as a final disclaimer, I am just doing this for fun. The weather has a mind of its own and I don't necessarily think we can explain it using this sort of analysis. But, I am a numbers guy, and thus I like to organize data in this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow, thanks for the info/work Keener. Very interesting statistical look at things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow..didn't realize you had almost no snow in 2001... Crazy. 1978 was a monster...probably never see that again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 O'Hare Airport snowfall data. ORD became the official site for Chicago in January 1980, but records began there in 1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 9" in 2001? Holy smokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 9" in 2001? Holy smokes Yep, 9.8" technically, of course that's just the yearly total. The seasons "surrounding" it look a bit better...2000-01 with 39.2" and 2001-02 with 31.3". 1921 with 9.7" and 1922 with 8.3" were just as awful, looking at just yearly totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Wow, thanks for the info/work Keener. Very interesting statistical look at things. No problem bud! I had a little extra time last night so I thought why not BTW, I don't mean to be a stickler or anything, but I think there is something wrong about 1885 in your first table. The only reason I even caught it was because this morning for a brief moment I thought I had used annual snowfall instead of seasonal. Then I realized I was using the second table and was relieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 00-01 was front loaded with the December to Remember...after that naso much. And we know about 01-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 No problem bud! I had a little extra time last night so I thought why not BTW, I don't mean to be a stickler or anything, but I think there is something wrong about 1885 in your first table. The only reason I even caught it was because this morning for a brief moment I thought I had used annual snowfall instead of seasonal. Then I realized I was using the second table and was relieved. You're right..I short changed 1885 unfortunately. Fixed now. Thanks for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 00-01 was front loaded with the December to Remember...after that naso much. And we know about 01-02. Yeah, not only was the snow total for December amazing, but they received more snow in March than January and February combined! Nice work guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Great work guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Midway AP 3 SW COOP and O'Hare season snowfall since 1958-59. I used the Midway COOP for consistency and available data purposes. You'll note that some of the snowfall totals may be different than what the official totals were when MDW was Chicago's official site (up until 1979-80). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 List of 10"+ snowstorms at the official sites for Chicago throughout recorded history. Information found via the Chicago NWS site. I also thought it'd be interesting to see how much each storm was worth versus the season snowfall of the respective storms and years. That's the info provided in the last column as a percentage. There were 2 seasons that featured three 10"+ snowstorms in Chicago in the same winter: 1895-96 and 1969-70 There were 3 seasons that featured two 10"+ snowstorms in Chicago in the same winter: 1894-95, 1929-30, and 1977-78 The closest back-to-back 10"+ snowstorms was March 25-26, 1970 and April 1-2, 1970. The longest period without a 10"+ snowstorm, officially, was from February 10-11, 1981 to January 1-3, 1999. Looking at the decades...the 1890's had the most 10"+ snowstorms with 7, followed by the 1970's with 6. The 1940's and 1980's had the least, with one each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 List of 10"+ snowstorms at the official sites for Chicago throughout recorded history. Information found via the Chicago NWS site. I also thought it'd be interesting to see how much each storm was worth versus the season snowfall of the respective storms and years. That's the info provided in the last column as a percentage. There were 2 seasons that featured three 10"+ snowstorms in Chicago in the same winter: 1895-96 and 1969-70 There were 3 seasons that featured two 10"+ snowstorms in Chicago in the same winter: 1894-95, 1929-30, and 1977-78 The closest back-to-back 10"+ snowstorms was March 25-26, 1970 and April 1-2, 1970. The longest period without a 10"+ snowstorm, officially, was from February 10-11, 1981 to January 1-3, 1999. Looking at the decades...the 1890's had the most 10"+ snowstorms with 7, followed by the 1970's with 6. The 1940's and 1980's had the least, with one each. Wow, I must say I was shocked to see an 18 year gap between 10"+ snowstorms from 1981 to 1999. I know 90 miles north in Milwaukee there were several good storms in the '90s; one in December 1990, three or four in February 1994 alone (not all 10"+, but 6"+). You'd think Chicago would've cashed in well on at least one of those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wow, I must say I was shocked to see an 18 year gap between 10"+ snowstorms from 1981 to 1999. I know 90 miles north in Milwaukee there were several good storms in the '90s; one in December 1990, three or four in February 1994 alone (not all 10"+, but 6"+). You'd think Chicago would've cashed in well on at least one of those storms. ORD didn't have any 10"+ storms in that period, but MDW had five. Of course ORD was the official site during that timeframe, thus not on the list. Regardless, that stretch (early 80's through the late 90's) was overall a pretty bad run of winters at ORD. April 4-5, 1982 MDW: 10.5" ORD: 9.4" January 9-10, 1987 MDW: 10.4" ORD: 8.5" February 10-11, 1988 MDW: 10.8" ORD: 9.1" February 22-23, 1994 MDW: 10.6" ORD: 9.1" March 9, 1998 MDW: 10.9" ORD: 6.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 ORD didn't have any 10"+ storms in that period, but MDW had five. Of course ORD was the official site during that timeframe, thus not on the list. Regardless, that stretch (early 80's through the late 90's) was overall a pretty bad run of winters at ORD. April 4-5, 1982 MDW: 10.5" ORD: 9.4" January 9-10, 1987 MDW: 10.4" ORD: 8.5" February 10-11, 1988 MDW: 10.8" ORD: 9.1" February 22-23, 1994 MDW: 10.6" ORD: 9.1" March 9, 1998 MDW: 10.9" ORD: 6.5" Probably mostly lake enhancement events then, I assume? That'd be most likely why MDW had some 10" events that ORD did not have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Probably mostly lake enhancement events then, I assume? That'd be most likely why MDW had some 10" events that ORD did not have. Maybe, maybe not. Some of those are close enough to each other that it could be just luck of the draw, gradient type snows, lake enhancement, or some bad(under) measuring at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 February 22-23, 1994 March 9, 1998 Maps from the N. IL snow thread from a while back. The other three events from the 80's are partially done, but won't be finished until I have a good amount of free time once again. '94: '98: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Maps from the N. IL snow thread from a while back. The other three events from the 80's are partially done, but won't be finished until I have a good amount of free time once again. Perfect, thanks for posting those. Can't wait for the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'm less than 40 miles from ORD near the Wisconsin State line and often the northern suburbs cash in on the bigger snows. Since I started measuring seasonal snowfall in 1998-99, there's been only two winters where there wasn't a 10"+ snowfall - '01-'02 and '02-'03. Both winters were below normal for snowfall. Most years there's been 2 10"+ snowfalls, with the last 4 winters having 3 or even 4 big snows in the far northern suburbs! Midway gets more lake effect snow than ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Do you have the original data set? It looks like you made those tables from excel, or a similar program. If I could get the original data set (with all the months), I may play around with some numbers and add some more stuff to this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Do you have the original data set? It looks like you made those tables from excel, or a similar program. If I could get the original data set (with all the months), I may play around with some numbers and add some more stuff to this thread. I made with the first table (with all the monthly data) from a Numbers spreadsheet (I'm on a Mac). Is that what you mean? It converts to Excel, but for some reason I can't link/post it on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I made with the first table (with all the monthly data) from a Numbers spreadsheet (I'm on a Mac). Is that what you mean? It converts to Excel, but for some reason I can't link/post it on here. Yep. Also, I have both, so whatever original format it was in, it will work. You can email it to me if you don't mind. I'll pm you my address Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 There have been 44 Januaries since 1885 that have been +3.0º or higher over the longterm January average temperature in Chicago (24.1º). Nine of those Januaries, despite the overall warmth, produced double digit snowfall totals. This January will be the 10th time that has happened...as ORD sits at 12.0" of snow for the month through yesterday and is a lock to finish +3 or higher with respect to temperatures. 1898: 28.7º.....15.9" 1907: 27.8º.....10.9" 1908: 28.6º.....13.2" 1914: 32.5º.....14.8" 1939: 31.6º.....24.7" 1941: 28.1º.....10.7" 1967: 28.8º.....28.9" 1998: 29.5º.....11.0" 2002: 31.9º.....15.5" 2012: 29.4º.....12.0" (thru 1/28) Three of those Januaries produced a 10"+ snowstorm, including #1 on the all time biggest snowstorm list. January 30, 1939: 14.9" January 26-27, 1967: 23.0" January 30-31, 2002: 12.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 There have been 44 Januaries since 1885 that have been +3.0º or higher over the longterm January average temperature in Chicago (24.1º). Nine of those Januaries, despite the overall warmth, produced double digit snowfall totals. This January will be the 10th time that has happened...as ORD sits at 12.0" of snow for the month through yesterday and is a lock to finish +3 or higher with respect to temperatures. 1898: 28.7º.....15.9" 1907: 27.8º.....10.9" 1908: 28.6º.....13.2" 1914: 32.5º.....14.8" 1939: 31.6º.....24.7" 1941: 28.1º.....10.7" 1967: 28.8º.....28.9" 1998: 29.5º.....11.0" 2002: 31.9º.....15.5" 2012: 29.4º.....12.0" (thru 1/28) Three of those Januaries produced a 10"+ snowstorm, including #1 on the all time biggest snowstorm list. January 30, 1939: 14.9" January 26-27, 1967: 23.0" January 30-31, 2002: 12.0" Amazing that snowfall is near average this month, given this winter! lol 14.1" here this month is about right. UGN temperatures are +5 for the month about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Lowest season snowfall totals through the end of January in Chicago's recorded history. The 2011-12 total is 13.9" currently. 1943-44.....3.6" 1899-00.....3.8" 1936-37.....3.8" 1889-90.....4.0" 1905-06.....5.7" 1988-89.....6.3" 1912-13.....6.5" 1922-23.....7.0" 1898-99.....7.1" 1948-49.....7.3" 1982-83.....7.5" 1931-32.....7.7" 1921-22.....7.8" 1923-24.....8.0" 1930-31.....8.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Top 20 snowiest and least snowiest Februaries in Chicago's recorded history. Plus, the list of official 10"+ snowstorms that have occurred in February. February snowfall breakdown by decade. Includes average for each decade and the high and low mark of each decade. Side note: there have been only two times that back-to-back Februaries have each produced 20"+ of snowfall...1900 (22.6") and 1901 (21.1")...2010 (22.5") and 2011 (29.0"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If you're into snow futility, the next thing to shoot for is a sub 20" winter. It hasn't happened since 1948-1949 and has only happened 9 times in over 125 years of records. Current total at ORD is 13.9. Long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.