powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 84 hour NAM... American models are still warm for snow in NNE except Vim Toot area. Good layer of sleet and ZR though south/under the H85 0C line. coming closer to some of those EURO and GGEM runs... that vort digs pretty far south and comes out well south of SNE. There's only so far north that low can go with the vorticity evolving as the models have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Thought it was time to get a specific thread going for Wednesdays storm. Unfortunately for most, it looks as thought this thing will track to far west to give any appreciable winter precip to the area. Looks like the SLP will track over the area, warm sectoring most of us. Maybe some sneaky wrap-around snow showers on T-Day will brighten some spirits around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The SREF solution seems plausible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The SREF solution seems plausible to me. I guess if we have a strong enough H to the N but there is nothing preventing it from lifting out allowing a more northward progression of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I guess if we have a strong enough H to the N but there is nothing preventing it from lifting out allowing a more northward progression of the storm. The flow over se Canada is confluent so it can only go so far north I think. Maybe it's something where a WF snakes into se mass, but I think it may be a cold rain for many. Hopefully some flakes on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The flow over se Canada is confluent so it can only go so far north I think. Maybe it's something where a WF snakes into se mass, but I think it may be a cold rain for many. Hopefully some flakes on the backside. Models are only going to be able to shove this storm into the cold air so far before it shift the system ENE, 06z Gfs was weaker with the low and had shifted it SE on its last run, We will see if this is a trend or a burp run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Portions of Maine could really get a beating from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The flow over se Canada is confluent so it can only go so far north I think. Maybe it's something where a WF snakes into se mass, but I think it may be a cold rain for many. Hopefully some flakes on the backside. Yeah, there is definitely some confluence over SE Canada per the models. I'm wondering if it's being overdone on the SREF's there. Looks to me like the H scoots off to the E as the storm rolls in and tracks into the weakness of that ridging to the N. I think it may come down to the overall intensity/phasing that occurs. The weaker the better obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Portions of Maine could really get a beating from this one. vim toot!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Models are only going to be able to shove this storm into the cold air so far before it shift the system ENE, 06z Gfs was weaker with the low and had shifted it SE on its last run, We will see if this is a trend or a burp run this run has been a lot more amplified through 48 hrs.. i think the 6z gfs was a blip.. nothing else is quite that flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Yeah, there is definitely some confluence over SE Canada per the models. I'm wondering if it's being overdone on the SREF's there. Looks to me like the H scoots off to the E as the storm rolls in and tracks into the weakness of that ridging to the N. I think it may come down to the overall intensity/phasing that occurs. The weaker the better obviously. I was either thinking SREFs, or something where the WF snakes into RI and se mass up to BOS or something....secondary rides along that front. GFS now shoves this into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 GFS wants no part of that s.w up in Ontario, while the euro phases it even on the 00z run. Quite different at 500mb, but lets see what the 12z euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 this run has been a lot more amplified through 48 hrs.. i think the 6z gfs was a blip.. nothing else is quite that flat. Yes it is, Low tracked further north and west, Mtns and northern maine would get smoked verbatium with some mixing. Its actually, The furthest north of any run so far as it pushed the 540 thickness well into central maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 vim toot!!! Time for the Tooter to get his rocketship gassed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 What a disaster run downpours right up into NNE.. the farthest north resorts (Jay, Saddleback, sugarloaf) might get .5" qpf frozen before the flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 GFS probably too far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I'm hoping for a little front end S/IP before the deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 One word. Ew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 GFS probably too far nw. Yup. Mountains get plastered, powderfreak gets naked, J. Spin jumpstarts his voyage to 200" and the ski resorts rejoice. I'm cool with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Yup. Mountains get plastered, powderfreak gets naked, J. Spin jumpstarts his voyage to 200" and the ski resorts rejoice. I'm cool with that. Something other than what we have right now would be nice, haha. I'm at our Mountain Ops building looking at weather stations that are showing 48F at 1,600ft and 36F at 3,900ft... those are just ugly temps haha. Even some frontside snow/IP would be welcomed. Something to break up the torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 You may well get dumped this week, but given the disaster after that... any snow will begin a rapid meltdown. Probably best not to even consider opening the mountain for a good two weeks. Something other than what we have right now would be nice, haha. I'm at our Mountain Ops building looking at weather stations that are showing 48F at 1,600ft and 36F at 3,900ft... those are just ugly temps haha. Even some frontside snow/IP would be welcomed. Something to break up the torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Euro really shoves this into CNE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Euro really shoves this into CNE as well. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Euro really shoves this into CNE as well. How much for Philly? This is a shift north from 00z, yes? I can accept hvy hvy NCP ... still early to expect every storm to produce snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The W. Maine ski areas like Sugarloaf and Saddleback look to be the only places that benefit from this one. You may well get dumped this week, but given the disaster after that... any snow will begin a rapid meltdown. Probably best not to even consider opening the mountain for a good two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The W. Maine ski areas like Sugarloaf and Saddleback look to be the only places that benefit from this one. And then they will just torch shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 10"+ for the dense population centers in northern Aroostook County. I still think I have a chance to start off as a little frozen, but it would be a quick flip regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 How much for Philly? This is a shift north from 00z, yes? I can accept hvy hvy NCP ... still early to expect every storm to produce snow here. Yeah a little shift nwd. Still thinking it probably won't warm sector that much of New England, but who cares...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Yeah a little shift nwd. Still thinking it probably won't warm sector that much of New England, but who cares...lol. The folks up in the county do......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The NAM is the only model that really gets the northern stream involved. Amazing how it drops the S/W into southern WV while the GFS keeps it along the ST Lawrence. And still the surface low position isn't that much different. Edit: GFS is a lot faster at the surface. Although the track along the front and oinly about 100 miles NW of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.