ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I decided to start a new thread since the other one turned into a current and future weather thread. Lets keep this one strictly to the pattern ahead and keep the banter/obs/current wx in a different thread.... Back to next week. One thing all models agree on is a transient cold shot, the further north you are, the deeper the cold will be. Its a gradient but it looks like most if not all of New England will get into the cold reasonably well for a couple of days. As it turns out, there will be a system coming out of the OH Valley around the time this cold air is in place...particularly next Wednesday on 11/23. The long wave pattern is terrible for a snow event and November climo anyway makes it that much tougher. But there is a chance that this could be perfectly timed and thread a needle to give us an accumulating snow event. As you can see highlighted on the 12z Euro map above, there is no blocking at all so this will have to be well timed and well placed. The trough on the Euro is positively tilted which keeps the system from cutting west of us which would happen in a no blocking pattern if it was more neutral/neg tilted. You can see two pieces of energy...the northern stream north of the Great Lakes out ahead of the southern stream a bit...this helps keep the system progressive and south enough for snow in southern New England. Its a fine line because if it gets more suppressed, the system will shear out and become almost nothing, and if it is less suppressed, it will be warmer and west. So this is a long shot for a significant snow event...however that doesn't mean there won't be a bit of snow or mixed precip from it. Beyond that cooldown and "threat", the pattern looks to go back to very mild as a deep western trough digs in and the AK vortex strengthens in conjunction with a +NAO...that spells a torch for us. Perhaps things relax a bit as we head into early December but it still does not look favorable for sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 A lot of things are going to need to come together at the right time as you mentioned last week to get a snow storm, Certainly not impossible but not a slam dunk either is right, But this is one of those sneaky storms that have been mentioned that could happen, We will see over the next few days as the pattern still remains like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 About a 1 in 3 chance of this happening. Signal has been there for a few days now....hopefully it doesn't run up Ray's fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I decided to start a new thread since the other one turned into a current and future weather thread. Lets keep this one strictly to the pattern ahead and keep the banter/obs/current wx in a different thread.... Back to next week. One thing all models agree on is a transient cold shot, the further north you are, the deeper the cold will be. Its a gradient but it looks like most if not all of New England will get into the cold reasonably well for a couple of days. As it turns out, there will be a system coming out of the OH Valley around the time this cold air is in place...particularly next Wednesday on 11/23. The long wave pattern is terrible for a snow event and November climo anyway makes it that much tougher. But there is a chance that this could be perfectly timed and thread a needle to give us an accumulating snow event. As you can see highlighted on the 12z Euro map above, there is no blocking at all so this will have to be well timed and well placed. The trough on the Euro is positively tilted which keeps the system from cutting west of us which would happen in a no blocking pattern if it was more neutral/neg tilted. You can see two pieces of energy...the northern stream north of the Great Lakes out ahead of the southern stream a bit...this helps keep the system progressive and south enough for snow in southern New England. Its a fine line because if it gets more suppressed, the system will shear out and become almost nothing, and if it is less suppressed, it will be warmer and west. So this is a long shot for a significant snow event...however that doesn't mean there won't be a bit of snow or mixed precip from it. Beyond that cooldown and "threat", the pattern looks to go back to very mild as a deep western trough digs in and the AK vortex strengthens in conjunction with a +NAO...that spells a torch for us. Perhaps things relax a bit as we head into early December but it still does not look favorable for sustained cold. Without blocking wouldn't this tend to want to go west up into SE Canada? That being said there doesn't look like much of SE ridge there. But the trend since late summer has been for big qpf events quite regularly so if I had to bet I'd go wetter and warmer. I think we would like it to phase and go west of us and maybe that will finally give us a chance to get some blocking to develop to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 this is one of those cases where the fast progressive flow will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Without blocking wouldn't this tend to want to go west up into SE Canada? That being said there doesn't look like much of SE ridge there. But the trend since late summer has been for big qpf events quite regularly so if I had to bet I'd go wetter and warmer. I think we would like it to phase and go west of us and maybe that will finally give us a chance to get some blocking to develop to our NE. Without blocking, you are pretty much just at the mercy of the strength and tilt of the shortwave...if its stronger and less positively tilted, it will run west with no resistance. Euro keeps it south because the northern stream kind of suppresses it and keeps it positive tilt. Nothing is going to help this pattern as long as that AK vortex is there, so there would probably be no use in having this phase into a bomb and run through the lakes. We'd still torch eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 We should be rooting for that trough because the pattern would argue for something to come into SNE. That s/w timing and keeping the storm south is almost the perfect scenario right now. Any further north or south and you introduce mix/rain or nothing at all, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 nice work, Will. definitely walking a fine line there. not exactly how you'd draw it up in the playbook. interesting evolution. the system almost "manufactures itself" into a snow event. looks like when the energy dives down and cuts off out west the northern stream portion is left to escape and flatten heights over the northern tier and cool things off in just advance of the same energy as it ejects out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Without blocking wouldn't this tend to want to go west up into SE Canada? That being said there doesn't look like much of SE ridge there. But the trend since late summer has been for big qpf events quite regularly so if I had to bet I'd go wetter and warmer. I think we would like it to phase and go west of us and maybe that will finally give us a chance to get some blocking to develop to our NE. Doesn't the shorter wavelength make a difference as well? Blocking = cutter repellant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 nice work, Will. definitely walking a fine line there. not exactly how you'd draw it up in the playbook. interesting evolution. the system almost "manufactures itself" into a snow event. looks like when the energy dives down and cuts off out west the northern stream portion is left to escape and flatten heights over the northern tier and cool things off in just advance of the same energy as it ejects out of the SW. Yeah the cold air seeping in is almost like a backdoor front. Northeast is the coldest. That would also tend to favor a bit of a CAD setup which means a warmer solution could mean some icing in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well ... clearly the operational Euro is having trouble during a -PNA transition into +PNA. Cannot elaborate for the moment but I'd also be on the watch for an Archembault scenario between D6 and the end of the month White T-G afterall ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Another nice thing to see is another trough/cold shot on the Euro post day 10..All we've been hearing is Dec 1-10 will be hard on torch with no cold anywhere. GFS/EURO ens and now both ops are putting an end to that idea. Hopefully they're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Another nice thing to see is another trough/cold shot on the Euro post day 10..All we've been hearing is Dec 1-10 will be hard on torch with no cold anywhere. GFS/EURO ens and now both ops are putting an end to that idea. Hopefully they're right I will consider it a minor miracle if Dec 1-10 as a whole comes in below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I will consider it a minor miracle if Dec 1-10 as a whole comes in below average. Minor is putting it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Get some snow up this way please! We need it for the ski resorts, haha. I'm really hoping this can get up into NNE, not going to lie even though I know this is all about snow for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Get some snow up this way please! We need it for the ski resorts, haha. I'm really hoping this can get up into NNE, not going to lie. I for one, would be devastated if you didn't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Get some snow up this way please! We need it for the ski resorts, haha. I'm really hoping this can get up into NNE, not going to lie even though I know this is all about snow for SNE. Well I'm not sure how much good it will do since we are going to torch again after this transient cold shot. Most of what falls will probably melt within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah the cold air seeping in is almost like a backdoor front. Northeast is the coldest. That would also tend to favor a bit of a CAD setup which means a warmer solution could mean some icing in the interior. dec 03 lite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I will consider it a minor miracle if Dec 1-10 as a whole comes in below average. Not saying that at all. Just that it's nice to see some cold shots in what many were calling 10-14 days of unabated torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It looks like the ensembles sort of start off warm, but continue the trend of trying to push the storm south, like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well I'm not sure how much good it will do since we are going to torch again after this transient cold shot. Most of what falls will probably melt within a week. Another oak obliterater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Not saying that at all. Just that it's nice to see some cold shots in what many were calling 10-14 days of unabated torch I don't remember anyone calling for a wall to wall torch. In fact, I believe several of us had said that on the mean, we will be warm, but that didn't mean we couldn't get transient cold shots. I think the main point that has been emphasized is that any cold will be transient...and we warm right back up. Lack of sustained cold is what has been the theme on this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I will consider it a minor miracle if Dec 1-10 as a whole comes in below average. Eh, I'd be carecful there. Both agencies show an upward correction of over 2SD in the PNA with a few additional members flagging a collapse in the AO/NAO. Momentum is an issue there two. Those three factors don't eliminate a significant change potential imho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It looks like the ensembles sort of start off warm, but continue the trend of trying to push the storm south, like the op. Next week that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Eh, I'd be carecful there. Both agencies show an upward correction of over 2SD in the PNA with a few additional members flagging a collapse in the AO/NAO. Momentum is an issue there two. Those three factors don't eliminate a significant change potential imho - Even with the upward tick of the PNA, Canada is pretty mild. We got to flush that airmass out first. Maybe it happens during the 1st week, but I think it may take a while to establish a colder airmass over southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Eh, I'd be carecful there. Both agencies show an upward correction of over 2SD in the PNA with a few additional members flagging a collapse in the AO/NAO. Momentum is an issue there two. Those three factors don't eliminate a significant change potential imho - The monster AK vortex well make any -NAO pretty useless I think...as Canada gets flooded with mild air. We might be able to be more seasonal in temps if we get a NAO block and a little bit of ridging over the west coast, but the source region being torched makes me fairly confident we won't be seeing a lot of negative departures in early December. Of course, maybe the AK vortex gets shuffled out faster than guidance currently has it...if that is the case, then we would see a very different pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I don't remember anyone calling for a wall to wall torch. In fact, I believe several of us had said that on the mean, we will be warm, but that didn't mean we couldn't get transient cold shots. I think the main point that has been emphasized is that any cold will be transient...and we warm right back up. Lack of sustained cold is what has been the theme on this pattern. Hard to say that for Dec 1-10 right now though Will. Changes are occurring at day ten-15 which puts us Dec 1. I am having a real hard time believing weeklies or anything over day 7 right now. Torching this week, next week has been the main theme since two weeks ago, now it appears we end up pretty much average for the next 7 day period. Certainly it is not beyond reason that more substantial change erupts Dec 1 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Hard to say that for Dec 1-10 right now though Will. Changes are occurring at day ten-15 which puts us Dec 1. I am having a real hard time believing weeklies or anything over day 7 right now. Torching this week, next week has been the main theme since two weeks ago, now it appears we end up pretty much average for the next 7 day period. Certainly it is not beyond reason that more substantial change erupts Dec 1 on. I hope the pattern changes by Dec 1, but I don't see any reason for it to in any significant manner. If we had the MJO ripping around to phase 6/7 and they were still trying to show an AK vortex, I'd be more skeptical...but it seems there is pretty solid support for low heights to remain over AK through at least the first week of Dec. Doesn't mean we can't get a snow event anyway as the Euro showed us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I for one, would be devastated if you didn't get it. Haha I know... most of you guys would be. The worst part is in these bad-looking snow patterns, the civil wars between regions can get tense... between NNE and SNE or the coast and the east slope, etc. I wish we could just get a parade of storms to blanket everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well I'm not sure how much good it will do since we are going to torch again after this transient cold shot. Most of what falls will probably melt within a week. Yeah, its one of those patterns. Hopefully the mountains can start to attempt to build some sort of snowpack though. I don't even care about down in town, I just want something to stay up on the mountain. Oh well, its flurrying outside now with a burst of light snow a little bit ago. I guess we have to take whatever we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.