SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Well, we have been patiently watching and waiting for a pattern change....Today's 18z GFS shows what might just be the first signs of that. Here is a 500mb depiction of what would be a colder pattern shaping up for the east. Notice the ridge trying to develop out west and the eastern trough. Also, notice the SE Canada vortex that is in an ideal spot to provide us with a colder pattern. Also the model is trying to raise heights over southern Greenland. It would be nice if this type of pattern were to verify for the winter.

Now, here is the 850 map 24 hours before the 500mb map

[pcbjr]

The end of the run looks OK until the last 2 frames (which granted are way out here in la la land); the end of the run seem to be going more zonal (again) than anything else (IMHO):

[downeastnc]

It was around this time last November that we first started to see signs of a major blocking pattern setting up in early to mid Dec, interesting the time frame is almost exact to within a day or so. We had a teaser cold shot right after Thanksgiving then a warm up at the end of Nov first few days of Dec ( we are talking 65-70 type warmup) then we had a solid dusting to half inch of snow Dec 4th and the rest of the month was well historic.

[strongwxnc]

Good catch. Hard for me to comment on the pros or cons.

We are all looking long for a lock to come....

Well, we have been patiently watching and waiting for a pattern change....Today's 18z GFS shows what might just be the first signs of that. Here is a 500mb depiction of what would be a colder pattern shaping up for the east. Notice the ridge trying to develop out west and the eastern trough. Also, notice the SE Canada vortex that is in an ideal spot to provide us with a colder pattern. Also the model is trying to raise heights over southern Greenland. It would be nice if this type of pattern were to verify for the winter.

Now, here is the 850 map 24 hours before the 500mb map

[WeatherNC]

Just took a gander at the 0z/12z GGEM & GFS ens means in fantasy range, and not yet seeing a signal of the pattern flip. Both are latching onto neg anomalies from the Gulf of Alaska extending over towards the East Siberian Sea. There is some hint of heights building south of Greenland around the 27th, namely on the globals ens mean over the past 4 runs. When the change does start showing up, don't be surprised to see it disappear/appear frequently for about the first week, as they are often pushed pack compared to what the guidance shows initially. My thinking is that if we do see a break in this for the first half of Dec, it should start becoming more consistent in the long range by Thanksgiving.

[WidreMann]

Look at the 12z Euro at 10 days:

you can't get much worse than that.

[pcbjr]

Look at the 12z Euro at 10 days:

you can't get much worse than that.

Nope, not at all:

[MillzPirate]

Look at the 12z Euro at 10 days:

you can't get much worse than that.

you could....... it could be January 13th instead.... might as well get this out of our system now

[WeatherNC]

Look at the 12z Euro at 10 days:

you can't get much worse than that.

We are all aware of the SE ridge flexing on the EC @ day 10, no need to muck up this thread with the graphics. Lets keep it to the pattern change, because that is obviously not it. The Nov disco thread is open for complaints last I checked, thanks Mann.

[pcbjr]

We are all aware of the SE ridge flexing on the EC @ day 10, no need to muck up this thread with the graphics. Lets keep it to the pattern change, because that is obviously not it. The Nov disco thread is open for complaints last I checked, thanks Mann.

Done deal! (And sorry)

[LithiaWx]

Small glimmer of hope in the long range. The PNA show a steady rise from the current strong -PNA right now on the 18Z GFS Ensemble. You see a small tick upwards on the Euro 12Z Ensemble also. The NAO will be headed positive for the short term but then appears to start going negative. Small glimmers of hope, but the next 10 days look nasty with a big -PNA.

[WidreMann]

We are all aware of the SE ridge flexing on the EC @ day 10, no need to muck up this thread with the graphics. Lets keep it to the pattern change, because that is obviously not it. The Nov disco thread is open for complaints last I checked, thanks Mann.

There is no pattern change. We can speculate that at some point this winter there will be a pattern change, but there is currently no credible data suggesting a pattern change any time over the next two to three weeks, to say nothing of December.

[BullCityWx]

There is no pattern change. We can speculate that at some point this winter there will be a pattern change, but there is currently no credible data suggesting a pattern change any time over the next two to three weeks, to say nothing of December.

You're right

[WeatherNC]

There is no pattern change. We can speculate that at some point this winter there will be a pattern change, but there is currently no credible data suggesting a pattern change any time over the next two to three weeks, to say nothing of December.

Not sure anyone is suggesting it to happen in the next two to three weeks, especially considering the lag sometimes associated with a flip. Even you know it is coming though, trillion dollars to a donut we don't have a 590dm H5 ridge parked off the EC of FL for the next four months.. I agree on there not being any credible evidence as to when although now seems about the right time to start the disco considering what happened last year, and some similarities between the Novembers.

[valkhorn]

Look at the 12z Euro at 10 days:

you can't get much worse than that.

Widre's definition of bad - warm for his back yard

Widre's definition of good - cold for his backyard

With something like that it wouldn't be too terrible for me, west TN, and Arkansas. So, how come widre's version of the southeast is only his backyard?

There is no pattern change. We can speculate that at some point this winter there will be a pattern change, but there is currently no credible data suggesting a pattern change any time over the next two to three weeks, to say nothing of December.

Only because short term models aren't very reliable when you get out that far. I pointed out the possibility of a zonal pattern for November long before you ever did, but I don't go posting everywhere to show how right I am. My original thought was for a good front to move through around the southeast on the 12th. Here in Knox, we did have this, and it was below normal for a couple of days. We're having another front later next week. This doesn't mean I'm completely right though - not at all. I thought something in mid November would be much colder than it has been.

However, I, unlike you, have realized that Knoxville isn't the entire southeast, and there are some spots that didn't get as cold as we did. Hell, two days before I'm climbing Mt. Leconte this weekend, it's going to be 15/35 up there. That's certainly below normal up there for this time of year, and is still in the south east, and is still in the current pattern we're in.

You certainly paint with a broad brush.

[WidreMann]

Widre's definition of bad - warm for his back yard

Widre's definition of good - cold for his backyard

With something like that it wouldn't be too terrible for me, west TN, and Arkansas. So, how come widre's version of the southeast is only his backyard?

Actually, it is terrible for you. Did you look at the 850s (warmest in the country is a tongue up into AR and W TN)? Did you look at the screaming jet across the EPAC? No. You just wanted to continue your silly war against me.

Only because short term models aren't very reliable when you get out that far.

Sure, but the trends are clear.

I pointed out the possibility of a zonal pattern for November long before you ever did, but I don't go posting everywhere to show how right I am. My original thought was for a good front to move through around the southeast on the 12th. Here in Knox, we did have this, and it was below normal for a couple of days. We're having another front later next week. This doesn't mean I'm completely right though - not at all. I thought something in mid November would be much colder than it has been.

So you didn't really make a coherent forecast. Neither did I, but I'm not fighting a war against you.

However, I, unlike you, have realized that Knoxville isn't the entire southeast, and there are some spots that didn't get as cold as we did. Hell, two days before I'm climbing Mt. Leconte this weekend, it's going to be 15/35 up there. That's certainly below normal up there for this time of year, and is still in the south east, and is still in the current pattern we're in.

You certainly paint with a broad brush.

Keep fighting that strawman.

[FallsLake]

So when the pattern does change,,,,,,,we do have a nice build up of snow cover in Siberia. This will definitely help when we get cross polar flow after the pattern flip.

**Everybody know the old saying "better to have one in the hand that two in the bush"; in our case it would be better to have a cold pattern now with no end in sight to a -NAO. But I would be just as worried as I am now that the pattern would then flip around mid December and lock though the first half of January.

[Mr Bob]

Not sure anyone is suggesting it to happen in the next two to three weeks, especially considering the lag sometimes associated with a flip. Even you know it is coming though, trillion dollars to a donut we don't have a 590dm H5 ridge parked off the EC of FL for the next four months.. I agree on there not being any credible evidence as to when although now seems about the right time to start the disco considering what happened last year, and some similarities between the Novembers.

Yes but the thread is based on an 18Z Operational GFS 384hr map....we either have a forecast disco thread or we dont and we certainly should be smarter than to have a thread based on the silliest of all forecast parameters....

[burgertime]

Are we seriously so desperate we're willing to take one run of the 18z GFS out past 300 hours? I mean just saying. I agree with Widre this is grasping at straws big time. Hopefully next week the patterns in the LR starts to break down, but nothing this week is saying we'll see true cold weather until at least after Thanksgiving. Might just be one of those winters.

[burgertime]

Yes but the thread is based on an 18Z Operational GFS 384hr map....we either have a forecast disco thread or we dont and we certainly should be smarter than to have a thread based on the silliest of all forecast parameters....

+1...nothing against the OP, but this easily could have been in the November thread.

[burgertime]

You don't know what's 'terrible' or 'good' for me. You don't know what I like and don't regarding the weather. Right now, I'm loving the warmth because it's easier to run outside, and for November that's great. And, in spite of that Euro at 10 days, in 4 the highest elevations may not get above freezing - which is below normal for this time of year.

It's not a silly war. It's not a war. I just call them like I see them, and if you're just trying to call something based on your back yard (which you do all the time because you will only be happy if it snows there), then I call you out on it.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.

EDIT: Also, that's the Euro at 10 days. That's where I'd want it to be anyway if I wanted cold - because like the GFS at 384, if it shows it, it probably won't happen. (said like a true weenie)

How does posting a map that shows a lack of real cold for pretty much the entire eastern half of the US focusing in on his backyard? You never gave any real arguments that said he was wrong. So outside of just attacking him what tells you from that Euro map that cold is coming?

[BullCityWx]

You don't know what's 'terrible' or 'good' for me. You don't know what I like and don't regarding the weather. Right now, I'm loving the warmth because it's easier to run outside, and for November that's great. And, in spite of that Euro at 10 days, in 4 the highest elevations may not get above freezing - which is below normal for this time of year.

It's not a silly war. It's not a war. I just call them like I see them, and if you're just trying to call something based on your back yard (which you do all the time because you will only be happy if it snows there), then I call you out on it.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.

EDIT: Also, that's the Euro at 10 days. That's where I'd want it to be anyway if I wanted cold - because like the GFS at 384, if it shows it, it probably won't happen.

I thought this guy got 5 posted?

[Lookout]

I thought this guy got 5 posted?

He has been.

Regardless, folks need to watch the back and forth and be more civil.

[BullCityWx]

He has been.

Regardless, folks need to watch the back and forth and be more civil.

He doesn't seem like he's here in good faith.

[WeatherNC]

Yes but the thread is based on an 18Z Operational GFS 384hr map....we either have a forecast disco thread or we dont and we certainly should be smarter than to have a thread based on the silliest of all forecast parameters....

Agree, the discussion should have been started with more substance than simply a 384hr op map. The period in question does not cover November, and I can see why one would want a separate outlet. When focusing on the extended, i.e. a potential pattern flip, there is little to go on besides teleconnections and climate models t-stepped into fantasy range. I have never been a fan of using the operational GFS in picking up on changes heading into winter, the ens mean, when there is continuity with previous runs can provide insight though. That being said, I will keep this thread open if anyone wants to further the discussion as long as it remains civil and constructive.

[appstate00]

This is what Henry Margusity of Accuweather just posted in his blog:

1. From my point of view, this is one of the best Novembers I have seen in a long time across the eastern half of the country, and it's not going to change anytime soon. The NAO is expected to remain high through the end of the month then the plummet starts and winter hits the East in early December. The Euro Monthlies come out tomorrow, so it will be interesting to see what they are showing for the month of December.

[GaWx]

You don't know what's 'terrible' or 'good' for me. You don't know what I like and don't regarding the weather. Right now, I'm loving the warmth because it's easier to run outside, and for November that's great.

Valkhorn has a good point here. Not every SE BB member wants it cold almost all the time in fall/winter, which is unrealistic for the SE, regardless. Some never want it cold. Of course, that's also unrealistic. Personally, I don't have a problem whatsoever with the typical mild SE interludes, even if they're long interludes. That's what I love about the SE. I went to the beach yesterday and loved it. It was very pleasant. Mild interludes are treated almost as evil, which is laughable. I could never see myself living up north with the almost neverending cold. That being said, the typical warm periods make it that much more exciting when it finally does get cold here. Make no mistake about it, I love it when the cold finally gets here.

[WidreMann]

This is what Henry Margusity of Accuweather just posted in his blog:

1. From my point of view, this is one of the best Novembers I have seen in a long time across the eastern half of the country, and it's not going to change anytime soon. The NAO is expected to remain high through the end of the month then the plummet starts and winter hits the East in early December. The Euro Monthlies come out tomorrow, so it will be interesting to see what they are showing for the month of December.

If they're anything like the weeklies, many of us will be disappointed.

[WidreMann]

Valkhorn has a good point here. Not every SE BB member wants it cold almost all the time in fall/winter, which is unrealistic for the SE, regardless. Some never want it cold. Of course, that's also unrealistic. Personally, I don't have a problem whatsoever with the typical mild SE interludes, even if they're long interludes. That's what I love about the SE. I went to the beach yesterday and loved it. It was very pleasant. Mild interludes are treated almost as evil, which is laughable. I could never see myself living up north with the almost neverending cold. That being said, the typical warm periods make it that much more exciting when it finally does get cold here. Make no mistake about it, I love it when the cold finally gets here.

The common expectation on the board is that "good pattern" means cold and stormy and "bad pattern" means warm and dry. Playing these semantic games to try to elicit a "gotcha" is pathetic.

[Cold Rain]

I have a suggestion about these threads. Feel free to take it or leave it.

Why don't we have a current month obs thread and then a general discussion/pattern analysis/medium/long range-focused thread that's not specific to a particular month? That way, we can keep the obs and imby posts separate from the weather analysis stuff.

Regarding specific threats, they could have their own threads (but this could get out of control if there are a lot of threats or the dates of a particular threat change) OR they could be lumped into the general analysis thread.

I think that would provide just a bit more structure and clean things up a little.