JoMo Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 yeah they both came around to a similar solution with the retrograding low. Might be the start of the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Heh... 'bout fainted when I saw that. Look at that gorgeous ridge pumping the sweet stuff straight dooooown.... then again... it's the 10 day op Euro... maybe it has the right idea just a few days early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 The 12Z GFS is trending to what the Euro has suggested for a couple of days now. There does appear that signs of a +PNA regime may be setting up, albeit weak and suggestion of another robust upper low in the SW. My hunch is we'll need to watch the trends as the guidance flip flops along in the next several days, but there may be a chance of some significant snow in the Rockies and perhaps the Front Range into the Plains as well depending on the storm track. The GFS would offer the first real cold shot of the year, if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Looks like a good setup for cold for most of the central section of the CONUS, with very good chances of significant snow in the midwest the next couple of weeks. The question is how far north the ridging is gonna set up shop... The farthest north, the colder the air, but the higher probabilities of lower heights in the NW (classic -EPO), or is it going to be a more +PNA/-WPO pattern, which would favor the central 3rd of the nation? So far models think the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 It looks like the first weekend in December will bring a rather strong cold front into the Intermountain West/Plains region. The does appear to be a brief warm up for Wednesday/Thursday before that stronger front arrives. The fly in the ointment will be another cut off Upper Low in the Desert SW and just how fast that feature ejects E. If the low is progressive as the overnight GFS suggests, then a brief cold shot could be expected. The problem is the GFS has been a bit too progressive with the pattern of late and that tends to give some attention to the Euro/Canadian evolutions. That said, all the guidance has struggled with anything beyond 3 days, so we'll just have to see how things play out. It does appear we will have a brief 'warm up' on Thursday before the strong front passes. What remains to be seen, is what happens with that upper air disturbance to our W for next weekend... HPC Morning Update: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 911 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 VALID 12Z THU DEC 01 2011 - 12Z SUN DEC 04 2011 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE THAT LINGERING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE ERN US/CANADA THU EXITS INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AS POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY PROGRESSES FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO ERN US THU-SAT...BRINGING WITH IT A SHOT OF COLDER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL THEN ERN STATES. MEANWHILE... UNSETTLING AND COOLING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN US THU SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST SOLUTION SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT ALOFT THOUGH LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE EXTENT OF DIGGING OF SUBSEQUENT NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING NERN PAC/CANADIAN WEST COAST RIDGE. AMPLIFIED FLOW INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES LEADS TO DIGGING MAIN TROUGH ENERGY THROUGH THE W-CENTRAL US FRI-SUN. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTERACTION WITH THE SWRN CLOSED LOW NEXT WEEKEND AND MORE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 06Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES INSTEAD ALLOW A MORE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH INTACT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL THEN NRN TIER OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US...WITH LESS SWRN SYSTEM INTERACTION. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NERN PAC LATE WEEK SEEMS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH IN MOST GUIDANCE TO LEAN ON A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW SOLUTION DOWNSTREAM. ACCORDINGLY...UPDATED HPC PRELIM SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR BUT NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE OOZ ECMWF AND MITIGATES SOME OF THE LESS PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES CONSISTENT WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTY OVER TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Had to chuckle at this. 838 FXUS02 KWBC 271834 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 133 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 VALID 12Z WED NOV 30 2011 - 12Z SUN DEC 04 2011 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE THAT LINGERING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE ERN US/CANADA THU EXITS INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AS POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY PROGRESSES FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO ERN US THU-SAT...BRINGING WITH IT A SHOT OF COLDER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL THEN ERN STATES. MEANWHILE... UNSETTLING AND COOLING CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN US THU SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST SOLUTION SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT ALOFT THOUGH LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE EXTENT OF DIGGING OF SUBSEQUENT NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING NERN PAC/CANADIAN WEST COAST RIDGE. CAN YOU DIG IT? AMPLIFIED FLOW INCLUDING RECENT ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND UKMET/CANADIAN SAYS YES AND THAT LEADS TO DIGGING MAIN TROUGH ENERGY THROUGH THE W-CENTRAL US FRI-SUN. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTERACTION WITH THE SWRN CLOSED LOW NEXT WEEKEND AND MORE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM SOLUTIONS LIKE RECENT GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INSTEAD ALLOW A MORE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH INTACT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL THEN NRN TIER OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US...WITH LESS SWRN SYSTEM INTERACTION. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NERN PAC LATE WEEK SEEMS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH IN MOST GUIDANCE TO LEAN ON A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW SOLUTION DOWNSTREAM. ACCORDINGLY...HPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR BUT NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE OOZ ECMWF AND MITIGATES SOME OF THE LESS PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES CONSISTENT WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTY OVER TIME. VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 haha wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 There is a lot of chatter this morning from WFO's regarding the medium range. It does appear that some very chilly air will spill S into the Intermountain West/S Plains as the northern stream storm taps that very cold air mass that brought record cold to Alaska. A very potent U/L will dive S into Arizona which looks to set the stage for a Winter Storm, depending on how guidance evolves. Areas from N MX/TX into OK could see a significant winter weather event, if the ensembles are correct. WFO's has far S as Midland/Odessa/San Angelo/Dallas/Ft Worth made mention of some possible wintry weather this morning. While it is still several days out and guidance has been poor beyond the 3 day range, it will be something to monitor and perhaps require its own thread depending on future model evolutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Euro keeps a very stable pattern, with ridges in both coasts and deep troughing from the Rockies to the Plains. Second shot of artic air is even colder in the latest run, though it's centered a bit west of what is progged for the 1st shot early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Its the end of an era! So long GOES 11 and Welcome GOES 15. http://www.nnvl.noaa...5F-sHoo.twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 12Z Euro is suggesting a potent winter storm for the Southern/Central Rockies into the Plains next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 LC says we're in an active panhandle hooker B pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Accuweather is on board. Cancel the storm. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/a-stormy-week-before-christmas/58851 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Who is LC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Who is LC? Larry Cosgrove http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The day 4-5 differences in how the globals handle the Pacific are incredible. Leads to massive downstream differences in trough development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 8, 2012 Author Share Posted January 8, 2012 The GFS has trended a bit further S with the upper low track which is what the Euro and Canadian had been suggesting as we have been discussing in the Texas thread. For the medium range, the U/L to our W off California now has the look that the Euro solution has been suggesting and a strong Canadian front diving S into the Plains as a potent Winter Storm develops in the northern stream near the Great Lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 The 12Z Op GFS continues to suggest a potent storm crossing the Great Basin/Southern Rockies/Plains near the 25th. It will be interesting to follow this event in the days ahead as it has the potential to be a major weather news event for late January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 The 12Z Euro is further S with the 5H low and a bit stronger as well. It will be interesting to follow this potential severe weather event in the coming days as it has wide spread ramifications as much of the region warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 18z GFS is further south and has some nasty kinematics/thermodynamics coming into place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 B_I and I were chatting yesterday and we feel we dropped the ball lately and have fragmented our sub forum so much we missed out on the Moderate Risk in our far eastern area of our own sub forum. All other regions have a place to discuss Medium Range and Obs and perhaps this thread will help us all to become familiar with our folks across our very vast region. We have some quality Red Tags that can offer some great insight and as we saw with Wes (usetobe), they do want to participate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 As SRain said, this is a place for everyone in the region to come together and discuss general weather, obs, patterns, etc. I hope this is a start to where everyone in the disparate weather regions of this forum can get to know each other better. We are responding to some recent advice from other members as well as our own belief that we just have too many fractured sub discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 well, being out in the field today...started off with almost 100% sunshine...and then around noon-ish we lost the sun...quickly...the clouds raced in and the ceiling lowered...definitely looks like snow out there...dreading it snowing on our work area...i need to check noaa and check out the forecast and see if they hoisted any winter weather watches/warnings for the elevated area where i'm working... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 looks like this storm will be getting its act together after it passes through my area...the best dynamics will be TX and eastward...it was chilly today, especially since the end of last week we hit the lower 60's in ABQ...let me tell you, that felt wonderful...but today it was in the upper 40's in the city, proper...probably about 10 degrees colder at my field sites...i'm hoping for no precip on my work area...but i know Sandia Mtn Ski Area could use some fresh snow...they had about a 40inch base when i rolled into town around 12 days ago and it'a been nothing but sunshine for most part since then... gotta go check out noaa and see what watches and warnings have been hoisted...do i even want to know??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 western and central mtns of NM: 2-8inches at 7000ft+...so that's not bad...but i'd like the 60's to come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 western and central mtns of NM: 2-8inches at 7000ft+...so that's not bad...but i'd like the 60's to come back What range are you working in...and what part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 What range are you working in...and what part? Currently i'm working in Water Canyon, which is on the south side of Mt Taylor...which is just NE of Grants, NM... if you google map it, the closest town is encinal, nm...then if you zoom in you can follow a road that goes into the canyon...the road we take is west of Encinal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 well, to my surprise...i just woke up and it is pouring in ABQ...pretty sure no one was expecting that to happen...i can only imagine what's going on in my work area...need to find some highway cams so we can check out road conditions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 I see ABQ has changed over to -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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