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November 2011 Obs/Forecasting Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
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Posted

Trouble is the ensemble mean doesn't much like the idea and keeps slightly above normal heights over the southeast in that time frame. It doesn't seem to like the gfs.

Indeed. The mean looks like it has the same idea (trying to phase the northern and southern stream s/w's) at 276-300, but then it totally loses it. The individual ensemble members all seem to have the same players on the field, but handle everything a bit different. About 3 look similar to the Op in timing and phasing, some have the northern stream s/w outrun the southern stream or have a kicker come in and prevent a phase, some leave all the southern energy back in the 4 corners. Most do have some solid N-Atlantic ridging for most of the run however.

Worth keeping an eye on it...since there's nothing else to watch except perhaps post-frontal flurries in a week's time.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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I challenge you to find something good in the latest runs. Good meaning signs of a sustainable good pattern.

I challenge you to find a long range model that is correct 25% of the time at day 7-10 or beyond.

If someone posts a long range solution that is cold or snowy, it is scoffed at. Yet, when the long range looks bad it's somehow given more validity.

The long range (anything beyond 5 days) now, for a change, is at least showing some possible seasonable cold. That's a step in the right direction.

It may not work out. It may. Either way, what happens or doesn't happen won't be because a computer said it would.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

this might last for one run +pna -nao

post-4-0-45109600-1322594369.gif

Hey, nice look there! At least for the next 8 hours or so.

I challenge you to find a long range model that is correct 25% of the time at day 7-10 or beyond.

If someone posts a long range solution that is cold or snowy, it is scoffed at. Yet, when the long range looks bad it's somehow given more validity.

The long range (anything beyond 5 days) now, for a change, is at least showing some possible seasonable cold. That's a step in the right direction.

It may not work out. It may. Either way, what happens or doesn't happen won't be because a computer said it would.

I 100% agree with you about models @ 5+ days out. The odds of a solution being really accurate become really slim pretty quickly. My challenge was more for the large scale pattern and not any one system in particular. Every run of the ensembles has been showing a +AO/NAO and the +pna being very short lived before going back to negative. The models are half decent at forecasting these 3 indices in the lr even at 14 days out. IMO- there is next to no chance at a solid threat to track over the next 15 days.

Even before I start to analyze a model run, I'll hit these three links first so my expectations are proper:

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif

I'm not knowledgable enough to get into the mjo, epo, and all that stuff but these 3 indices are a great place to start when looking into long range potential.

I'll never rule out a perfect little setup that sneaks something our way but I think we're stuck in a particularly bad longer term pattern if you want snow. The only thing that could make it worse is if the se ridge becomes stable and bulges on us. It's really not bugging me at all though because most of us have lived here quite a while and were very used to this kind of stuff. I'd much rather have a patter like this delay the onset of good winter weather than cost us 4-6 weeks in the heart of it.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Hey, nice look there! At least for the next 8 hours or so.

I 100% agree with you about models @ 5+ days out. The odds of a solution being really accurate become really slim pretty quickly. My challenge was more for the large scale pattern and not any one system in particular. Every run of the ensembles has been showing a +AO/NAO and the +pna being very short lived before going back to negative. The models are half decent at forecasting these 3 indices in the lr even at 14 days out. IMO- there is next to no chance at a solid threat to track over the next 15 days.

Even before I start to analyze a model run, I'll hit these three links first so my expectations are proper:

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif

I'm not knowledgable enough to get into the mjo, epo, and all that stuff but these 3 indices are a great place to start when looking into long range potential.

I'll never rule out a perfect little setup that sneaks something our way but I think we're stuck in a particularly bad longer term pattern if you want snow. The only thing that could make it worse is if the se ridge becomes stable and bulges on us. It's really not bugging me at all though because most of us have lived here quite a while and were very used to this kind of stuff. I'd much rather have a patter like this delay the onset of good winter weather than cost us 4-6 weeks in the heart of it.

during the "good" winters, those ensembles for the AO and NAO are always too high....this year, the exact opposite

bastids

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Hey, nice look there! At least for the next 8 hours or so.

I 100% agree with you about models @ 5+ days out. The odds of a solution being really accurate become really slim pretty quickly. My challenge was more for the large scale pattern and not any one system in particular. Every run of the ensembles has been showing a +AO/NAO and the +pna being very short lived before going back to negative. The models are half decent at forecasting these 3 indices in the lr even at 14 days out. IMO- there is next to no chance at a solid threat to track over the next 15 days.

Even before I start to analyze a model run, I'll hit these three links first so my expectations are proper:

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif

I'm not knowledgable enough to get into the mjo, epo, and all that stuff but these 3 indices are a great place to start when looking into long range potential.

I'll never rule out a perfect little setup that sneaks something our way but I think we're stuck in a particularly bad longer term pattern if you want snow. The only thing that could make it worse is if the se ridge becomes stable and bulges on us. It's really not bugging me at all though because most of us have lived here quite a while and were very used to this kind of stuff. I'd much rather have a patter like this delay the onset of good winter weather than cost us 4-6 weeks in the heart of it.

I hear you on the indices. I'm not knowledgable enough to even be talking about those either, but I will have to point out that those forecasts are computer modeled as well.

I'm just glad to see any sort of "improvement" in the pattern. That ridge along the west coast is a tiny step toward the "better" pattern, in my know nothing opinion. I don't ever expect to look at the models and see a "great" solution, and if I did see it, I wouldn't believe it. I just try to enjoy what little positives that are there, when they are there. I feel like we are going to "cool" down, and I see that as a positive first step.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

during the "good" winters, those ensembles for the AO and NAO are always too high....this year, the exact opposite

bastids

I know what you mean! You figure they could just tune up the programming a little and increase accuracy.

I really like using those forecasts to indentify changes and trends. When it looks like a bunch of spaghetti you know not to focus too much on the LR but when things are clustered it gives pretty good insight to where we are headed.

I'm waiting for the first indications that positive ao/nao pattern is breaking down. I'm hoping we see the obvious trend downward in the forcasts somewhere in the next 15 days or so. Then maybe.....just maybe.....they flip negative and stay for a while. It's quite unusual for them to both be positive for so long. Heck, it's been since mid to late august for god sakes.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

12z ens not far off of the op, need that ridging a little further west

post-4-0-50046700-1322602229.gif

No the mean isn't and is a nice step in the right direction though the pacific looks kinda bad with the low heights over AK and the higher than normal ones stretching e-w to the south. That's a positive epo which is a change from the negative epo the models ahd been showing recently.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

12z GFS doesn't quite buy the 0z Euro's idea of a Miller B bomb, but keeps some hope alive for anafrontal flurries after the big cold front on the 6th. December 5th-ish rule invoked?

berk is on it.. which means it probably wont happen ;)

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I was thinking this morning that the early season snowfall we had has given an overall "mood" that would not normally be present on this calendar date. I would venture that normally on Nov. 30, we wouldn't be too upset about a warmish pattern. Granted, if this were Dec. 30, it would be a different story, but I think that early snow threw us a bit out of a "normal" mindset.

Oh, BTW, someone start a new thread tonight so that we can remove this "hex" we have on us. :P

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

The folks in new England are depressed about the pattern...does note bode well for us

they were depressed in 09/10 when they all hit average (and most were above average) snowfall simply because we were getting jackpoted (not all in the NE thread, but the usual suspects)

why do you care? they live in a different world climo-wise and, at least at this point, their biatching now is probably equivalent to our biatching if we were faced with the current pattern in early JAN (and we would all be biatching)

anyway, you were whining in mid-JAN 2010 about the winter; I seriously doubt they were worried about your complaining then

we'll get snow of consequence in JAN/FEB if we miss it in DEC so get over it and start practicing your scale modes on the guitar!

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RodneyS

RodneyS

Posted
Posted

The final precipitation totals (in inches) for each of those months were as follows:

November 2005: 1.92

November 2001: 0.55

November 1964: 1.42

November 1931: 1.01

November 1918: 1.48

November 1917: 0.53

November 1878: 3.03

November 1874: 2.08

Average, 8 years: 1.50

So, the average of those eight years is very similar to what would be expected based on multiplying 16 (the number of days remaining in November) by the average of .093 inches of precipitation per day that has occurred in DC in November during 1871-2010. Let's see how close we come to that average this year.

And the answer is that we exceeded the 1.50 inch average by 0.44 inch.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Monthly climo numbers through yesterday. They should be pretty close to the final since we don't expect any precip today and temps will probably end up near climo.

DCA: +2.9F, -1.12"

BWI:+4.2F, -0.73"

IAD: +2.7F, -1.11"

RIC: +3.1F, +1.05"

So much for my idea of ending up within 1F of normal by month's end :arrowhead: . The last 10 days just torched with double digit positive anomalies and consistently overperformed the models by a few degrees.

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