mattie g Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I just googled "December 5th coincidence," per Ian's suggestion in the trainwreck thread. The pictures of the 5 Dec 09 storm made me more than a bit nostalgic. I'm kind of dreading the two-year anniversary of 19-20 Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I just googled "December 5th coincidence," per Ian's suggestion in the trainwreck thread. The pictures of the 5 Dec 09 storm made me more than a bit nostalgic. I'm kind of dreading the two-year anniversary of 19-20 Dec. Awww come on, 12/19 is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Awww come on, 12/19 is awesome Happy Anniversary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Happy Anniversary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Oh...what the interwebs can teach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 New December forecast: Compared to the old one: That's what happens when you don't get blocking and allow the Pacific to have more of an influence. More (somewhat basic) discussion on the blog, but it's not anything most of you haven't heard already: http://madusweather.com/2011/11/december-2011-temperature-forecast-final/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i love you mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I just googled "December 5th coincidence," per Ian's suggestion in the trainwreck thread. The pictures of the 5 Dec 09 storm made me more than a bit nostalgic. I'm kind of dreading the two-year anniversary of 19-20 Dec. Nahhh, don't dread the anniversary of 19-20 Dec 2009! Good memories, one to add to all the other storms in one's experience. It almost seems that a fair number of people tend to "overlook" that storm when talking about winter 2009-10, focusing more on the February ones (or the period late January through mid February). Those certainly had more sheer impact in many ways in the DC area, but the December event was quite substantial and the first "big one" in many years here (I got 20.0" where I'm at). Yes, 5 Dec 2009 makes one nostalgic, it was a prelude of what that winter would bring. Sort of like 5 Dec 2002, I remember that one pretty well, leading into what was also a great winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Dec 19th storm is one of my all time faves. One of my best friends was getting married on the 19th and I saved his day by driving him to the hotel during the height of the storm (he couldn't get out of his parking lot). Took me 4 hours to go from Rockville to Columbia. Absolute chaos on the road. Cars stranded everywhere on 495 and 95. Total driving free for all. My sububan kicked the storm's azz. One of my favorite drives ever. I ended being the hero of the day at the reception and felt like a million bucks. I would love a redux but I don't think a 2' storm is in our cards this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Dec 19th storm is one of my all time faves. One of my best friends was getting married on the 19th and I saved his day by driving him to the hotel during the height of the storm (he couldn't get out of his parking lot). Took me 4 hours to go from Rockville to Columbia. Absolute chaos on the road. Cars stranded everywhere on 495 and 95. Total driving free for all. My sububan kicked the storm's azz. One of my favorite drives ever. I ended being the hero of the day at the reception and felt like a million bucks. I would love a redux but I don't think a 2' storm is in our cards this year. I got married on the 19th too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 New December forecast: Compared to the old one: That's what happens when you don't get blocking and allow the Pacific to have more of an influence. More (somewhat basic) discussion on the blog, but it's not anything most of you haven't heard already: http://madusweather.com/2011/11/december-2011-temperature-forecast-final/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 "Now lookin at the the picture funny" Dir Dir Dir lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Do you think when that girl looks at a map she can see people waving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322695966[/url]' post='1155474']New December forecast: Compared to the old one: That's what happens when you don't get blocking and allow the Pacific to have more of an influence. More (somewhat basic) discussion on the blog, but it's not anything most of you haven't heard already: http://madusweather....forecast-final/ Lol. Not sure about your new map either. At least the gradient in the east which I think should be reversed if anything. I'd take the under in new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Lol. Not sure about your new map either. At least the gradient in the east which I think should be reversed if anything. I'd take the under in new england. The upcoming pattern for December would probably favor the colder anomalies the further north you go over the lakes and NE...but it can be tricky with that cutoff moving east in week 1...that could definitely skew the typical temperature response in this long wave pattern. New England could start off very warm in week 1. After week 1, I think you'll probably start to see a more typical gradient pattern in La Nina...but how long that lasts is up in the air. The northern plains should get very cold at least for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322709551[/url]' post='1156000']The upcoming pattern for December would probably favor the colder anomalies the further north you go over the lakes and NE...but it can be tricky with that cutoff moving east in week 1...that could definitely skew the typical temperature response in this long wave pattern. New England could start off very warm in week 1. After week 1, I think you'll probably start to see a more typical gradient pattern in La Nina...but how long that lasts is up in the air. The northern plains should get very cold at least for a time. Yes...I am kind of assuming a +NAO/-EPO/-PNA pattern in the means but that is a guess. Months can be hard if you have something dominate the pattern for 10+ days and skew everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yes...I am kind of assuming a +NAO/-EPO/-PNA pattern in the means but that is a guess. Months can be hard if you have something dominate the pattern for 10+ days and skew everything. That recipe can become a fairly common La Nina look for sure with a classic gradient in the Northeast / Lakes. If at any time mid-December the PV decides to retreat, it will be hard to find cool anomalies anywhere in the CONUS. However, I don't think that this occurs like in 1999 and if it does, it wouldn't be a long stretch. What an annoying forecast for December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Happy Meteorological Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Lol. Not sure about your new map either. At least the gradient in the east which I think should be reversed if anything. I'd take the under in new england. The month-long anomalies are a bit of a stretch for sure (especially compared to a lot of other forecasts with the reversed - more typical - warm pattern in the eastern U.S.), but what I was trying to do was actually capture a blend of two different patterns. I believe the models are too cold along the East Coast during the first third of the month as the pattern gets a boost from the warm phases of the MJO to go along with the -PNA/+AO/+NAO pattern. While that's going on, some of the cooler air continues to seep into the Southeast from the central U.S. After all that, the Southeast ridge tries to hold for a bit before some of the medium-range signals begin to relax. From there it's just a matter of seeing which signal wants to try to dominate during the second half of the month. PNA looks to relax near mid-month, but you've still got a +AO/+NAO signal lingering which should battle the typical Nina climo in the Northeast. As has been said before, it's all about the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 As has been said before, it's all about the timing. You're right about that. Not that I really know all that much but I was surprised at how November went. And also about what the first 2 weeks of Dec look like. I envisioned something completely different. I was totally sold on the NAO switching negative in early December and staying that way for the balance of the month. I guess there's hope for that in the latter half but I'm second guessing that already. I'm starting to envision this long lived current pattern breaking down really slowly or potentially being the dominent pattern throughout the winter. I'm starting to wonder if we end up with an overall positive NAO / AO for the DJF timeframe too. We've had a heck of a run the last couple of years. It almost seems like the switch got flipped in late August and we are in a new regime now. The only reason I'm starting to feel this way is because I've chased so many pattern flips over the last 5-6 years that just never materialize. And when they do they are overall short lived before returning to the previous dominent pattern. I'm not saying the winter will be a bust either. A neutral or positive NAO will keep a progressive pattern that will bring it's chances. We could easily pull off a couple of really nice events even when the major indices aren't favorable. Met input on these thoughts would be great because what the heck do I know? My post is just a wag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 New December forecast: Compared to the old one: That's what happens when you don't get blocking and allow the Pacific to have more of an influence. More (somewhat basic) discussion on the blog, but it's not anything most of you haven't heard already: http://madusweather....forecast-final/ On the bright side, central Montana was consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 December should end up looking alot like 1967 I think, the Similarities between the September-October periods in 1967 and 2011 globally are pretty neat, I'll post a composite below on this post once I can get home to my PC. Edit: Ok here it is, the baseline periods make the temperature profiles between the two look off, but in reality they're very close. September/October 1967 September/October 2011 Not perfect, but December 1967 looked like this: (below) PV was clearly weaker in 1967 it looks but was strong in November (1967), but the -PNA, North Atlantic Ridge, and +AO are all present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 12z GFS looks craplousy. Still a chance for post-frontal flurries on the 6th. Then back to summer. Good thing the GFS has been horrible in the mid-to-long range lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS looks decent up just NE of here for next week but it's probably wrong / will trend north. We're due for some torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 12z GFS looks craplousy. Still a chance for post-frontal flurries on the 6th. Then back to summer. Good thing the GFS has been horrible in the mid-to-long range lately. meh, when the GFS is horrible, it's never in our favor for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322758292[/url]' post='1156817']December should end up looking alot like 1967 I think, the Similarities between the September-October periods in 1967 and 2011 globally are pretty neat, I'll post a composite below on this post once I can get home to my PC. Edit: Ok here it is, the baseline periods make the temperature profiles between the two look off, but in reality they're very close. September/October 1967 September/October 2011 Not perfect, but December 1967 looked like this: (below) PV was clearly weaker in 1967 it looks but was strong in November (1967), but the -PNA, North Atlantic Ridge, and +AO are all present. The PAC in November 1967 was markedly different from this year. Not saying you will be wrong, but not sure why at this point, September October mean much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm an Eskimo and I've already written this winter off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The PAC in November 1967 was markedly different from this year. Not saying you will be wrong, but not sure why at this point, September October mean much I could be 100% dead wrong and it wouldn't be surprising to anyone of I am . I personally think September and October matter because, in my opinion, the longer scale similatities show how the climate machine is behaving overall in the whole term, and that while months may be different the net signal might turn out similarly. Obviously I'm not just looking at 1967/68 alone, but the reason I like it so much is because of how markedly similar the QBO configuration really is (mixed layer), as well as the Sun, PDO, 2nd yr Nina, and IOD. For the first time ever, I have the guts to go agaist La Nina climo this yr, I think February 2012 will be ridiculously cold, for at least the 1st 2 weeks of the month before we flip warm maybe towards the middle/end. I favored the warm December this year all along but still think we see some change towards the very end of the month in the AO and/or NAO as the AAM pulse shifts into new representation, though nothing huge until at least the middle of January. It's just an amateur prediction on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I could be 100% dead wrong and it wouldn't be surprising to anyone of I am . I personally think September and October matter because, in my opinion, the longer scale similatities show how the climate machine is behaving overall in the whole term, and that while months may be different the net signal might turn out similarly. Obviously I'm not just looking at 1967/68 alone, but the reason I like it so much is because of how markedly similar the QBO configuration really is (mixed layer), as well as the Sun, PDO, 2nd yr Nina, and IOD. For the first time ever, I have the guts to go agaist La Nina climo this yr, I think February 2012 will be ridiculously cold, for at least the 1st 2 weeks of the month before we flip warm maybe towards the middle/end. I favored the warm December this year all along but still think we see some change towards the very end of the month in the AO and/or NAO as the AAM pulse shifts into new representation, though nothing huge until at least the middle of January. It's just an amateur prediction on my part. You know what? I've been kind of quietly thinking the same. I am thinking the end of the winter will be the best chances for storms, which isn't typically La Nina climo. The past few years has been nothing but "CLIMO" We all know 2009-2010's strong El Nino was totally opposite. It's been a few crazy years that didn't quite follow what's "supposed" to happen. I'm no expert in long range at all, but I am agreeing this won't be a typical La Nina. Warm and not so snowy start to some possible good chances and colder inJanuary and February. Likely average to just below average snow, but we could get that ONE big storm that dumps a good amount. You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I caught the tail end of a news bit on WTOP this am in the car. Some guy with a last name Crum or Krum or something was saying that there will be at least 3 noreasters this winter and that Frederick County MD will be prepared for big snows. I was like "wut?". Anyone else catch that on the news? I wish I heard the beginning of the bit because publicly saying something like that when the odds are seriously against it is kinda risky. Edit: I just checked WTOP's site and this was on the front page: http://www.wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2635291 Wut!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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