tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 per 12z gfs outside elevations over 1000 ft and pocs everyone is pretty much rain...might be some wet flakes in mixed in the lehigh valley at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Real tough to get anything frozen below 1000 ft in October....but I do remember October 10, 1979 in Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I sure hope euro wunder sticks around for the winter season this. Other than freezing up sometimes, it is amazing that all of those maps are for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Verbatim on the 12z GFS at KPNE everything below 900mb is warm. And not just slightly, pushing 4-5 C. It seems like we (well you guys anyway) see an event like this every October/November. Cold rain for most, one small band of heavy precip will lead to dynamic cooling with an inch or two in a very small area. Higher elevations might cash in though. I hope Mike has his grill cam ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Verbatim on the 12z GFS at KPNE everything below 900mb is warm. And not just slightly, pushing 4-5 C. It seems like we (well you guys anyway) see an event like this every October/November. Cold rain for most, one small band of heavy precip will lead to dynamic cooling with an inch or two in a very small area. Higher elevations might cash in though. I hope Mike has his grill cam ready to go. yea its torched from the surface to 900mb...skew t for phl and abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 ^funny we're talking about torches with +5 at the surface in October (which is 10 celsius below average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ^funny we're talking about torches with +5 at the surface in October (which is 10 celsius below average) in terms of wanting snow, its a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 fwiw, this is the snowiest part of the 2nd storm on the euro. Im curious as to how the euro generates its snowfall predictions. Cause if you take the snowfall off coolwx for places like kabe, you would think some accumulating snow based off the 12z gfs, when in fact its all rain. I wonder if its based off temps/850/thickness or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 12z is up now...i'm guessing less than an hour after they run? Yeah, I saw it at 320 pm, great bookmark to add, esp once we get to EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 fwiw, this is the snowiest part of the 2nd storm on the euro. Im curious as to how the euro generates its snowfall predictions. Cause if you take the snowfall off coolwx for places like kabe, you would think some accumulating snow based off the 12z gfs, when in fact its all rain. I wonder if its based off temps/850/thickness or what. The raw GFS takes PHL down to 33 at hour 126 and takes ABE below freezing. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KABE.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KPHL.txt (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 the big key here will be intensity and column cooling/dynamic cooling. Seems like 850's for the latter part of the storm will be cold enough to support snow, but 925 down has a nice warm pocket. You're going to need the precip intensity to pick up to cool the column down to the surface to have any chance on the coastal plain/lower elevations. Its possible, but being on the backside of the low when cold air rushes in, it's a lot to ask for. (as is any snow chances in october).. i doubt any accums allentown south and east, but wouldnt rule out some wet flakes. Still a week out, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On accuwx pro, just saw a snowfall forecast of 12-18".. Henry M posted, even he isn't buying it lol. What would cause the euro to go bonkers like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 My only synopsis of this storm is that it will an elevation snow for the Poconos with an occasional wet flakes and sleet for the Lehigh Valley. There is just not enough dry cold air in place to assure the entire column of air will be cooled for frozen precip I am glad see many of you are leaning this way for this storm. What concerns me is that the Rockies are starting to get an early jump with their snow pack with this storm too. More areas of snow pack in the Rockies into the upper midwest usually leads to much colder temps for us in the late November and December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The raw GFS takes PHL down to 33 at hour 126 and takes ABE below freezing. http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_KABE.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KPHL.txt (time sensitive) 99% of the precip is gone by then.. the link you posted shows abe goes below after 126, when all the precip leaves...even by 132 when they are close to or below its still to warm in the other layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 6abc, 49 saturday with rain and a wet flake NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 he will have a snow map by wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On accuwx pro, just saw a snowfall forecast of 12-18".. Henry M posted, even he isn't buying it lol. What would cause the euro to go bonkers like that? If that 12 to 18 inches came to fruition, it would be almost as damaging as Irene. Many leaves have not fallen off the trees and the tree felling problem and down power lines would be incredible suffice to say even with the snow plowing issues with municipalities and PADOT not be ready for this type of storm. I really hope they are not pushing these totals as gospel to the public and private businesses as this would be very irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 99% of the precip is gone by then.. the link you posted shows abe goes below after 126, when all the precip leaves...even by 132 when they are close to or below its still to warm in the other layers For Philly, it's probably not going to matter...it's very likely to be rain. At ABE the warmest the bottom layer of the atmos gets is +2.4...you get enough QPF in that and temps will drop in response. thicknesses there were 532 at 120. Snow is do-able in Allentown. My point is that it's pretty close in setup up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If that 12 to 18 inches came to fruition, it would be almost as damaging as Irene. Many leaves have not fallen off the trees and the tree felling problem and down power lines would be incredible suffice to say even with the snow plowing issues with municipalities and PADOT not be ready for this type of storm. I really hope they are not pushing these totals as gospel to the public and private businesses as this would be very irresponsible. If anyone wants some lolz check out DT's facebook page. Some huge posts over there. I think the upper elevations of Chester, Montco and Bucks and northwest from there could see some flakes in the air if precip is heavy enough but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If anyone wants some lolz check out DT's facebook page. Some huge posts over there. I think the upper elevations of Chester, Montco and Bucks and northwest from there could see some flakes in the air if precip is heavy enough but that's about it. You must be referring to what he has for the 12 Z ECM snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You must be referring to what he has for the 12 Z ECM snowfall? Yep, no reason for him to put up that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z GFS.... aaaaand it's gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Oh.. you guys... My weenie is rising again though after a long summer. I personally don't expect anything more than a chance of big wet flakes mixed in (I think something similar occurred in October or Early November 2009). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You must be referring to what he has for the 12 Z ECM snowfall? No way THAT'S happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Real tough to get anything frozen below 1000 ft in October....but I do remember October 10, 1979 in Philly Only have to go back to 2008 here locally, pics from Levittown near the Turnpike Bridge at only 25' in elevation. A few miles west & 250' back at the house had 1.2" and few miles NW of the house & 350' in Warminster they had over 2". Also had a coating back in late Oct 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Only have to go back to 2008 here locally, pics from Levittown near the Turnpike Bridge at only 25' in elevation. A few miles west & 250' back at the house had 1.2" and few miles NW of the house & 350' in Warminster they had over 2". Also had a coating back in late Oct 2002. Ah yes, the day after game 5 of the WS had to be called for rain, they had a snow delay. I was not very popular that day in school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Saturday 43° F | 32° F Chance of Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Saturday 43° F | 32° F Chance of Rain Friday night for Tamaqua. Chance Snow Lo 33 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Friday night for Tamaqua. Chance Snow Lo 33 °F pic's with new ride in snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Only have to go back to 2008 here locally, pics from Levittown near the Turnpike Bridge at only 25' in elevation. A few miles west & 250' back at the house had 1.2" and few miles NW of the house & 350' in Warminster they had over 2". Also had a coating back in late Oct 2002. Yup. Remember that event clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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