Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Looks pretty good overall. You're a bit warmer than me but that could certainly verify if the AO/NAO don't cooperate. I guess you're thinking we get some decent snow in March or April? March. Not that I factored it in, but we're a little overdue for a decent March snowfall. Decent of course being relative to LAF's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 March. Not that I factored it in, but we're a little overdue for a decent March snowfall. Decent of course being relative to LAF's standards. That being what T-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 That being what T-2"? In March, lately, yeah. Regardless, I'm thinking a 3-5" type storm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 from JB.. "Euro weeklies NOT in line with my thinking. Lots of work in front of me as they are opposite of cold pdo, warm amo, 2nd yr nina analogs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Full outlook from Deedler is posted...great read. http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2011/11/another-la-nina-rides-in-for-winter.html EDIT: Actually it's not his full outlook yet, just the macroscale discussion. Still a great read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Full outlook from Deedler is posted...great read. http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2011/11/another-la-nina-rides-in-for-winter.html EDIT: Actually it's not his full outlook yet, just the macroscale discussion. Still a great read. Thanks for linking that. A very good read indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 from JB.. "Euro weeklies NOT in line with my thinking. Lots of work in front of me as they are opposite of cold pdo, warm amo, 2nd yr nina analogs" In short they trap all the cold air in AK/W.Canada/PAC NW. Very toasty in the east and or east of the Rockies. The coldest of air basically stays in W.Canada/AK and briefly visits the PAC NW/N.Rockies/N.PLains week 1. Horrible pattern if you are looking for cold and snow east of the Rockies outside of the N.Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 In short they trap all the cold air in AK/W.Canada/PAC NW. Very toasty in the east and or east of the Rockies. The coldest of air basically stays in W.Canada/AK and briefly visits the PAC NW/N.Rockies/N.PLains week 1. Horrible pattern if you are looking for cold and snow east of the Rockies outside of the N.Plains. How far ahead are the Euro weeklies showing this warm weather? Certainly hope the pattern turns to winter around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 In short they trap all the cold air in AK/W.Canada/PAC NW. Very toasty in the east and or east of the Rockies. The coldest of air basically stays in W.Canada/AK and briefly visits the PAC NW/N.Rockies/N.PLains week 1. Horrible pattern if you are looking for cold and snow east of the Rockies outside of the N.Plains. How have the weeklies been doing lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 How have the weeklies been doing lately? Also, how far do the weeklies go out? Just a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 How far ahead are the Euro weeklies showing this warm weather? Certainly hope the pattern turns to winter around Thanksgiving. They go out till Dec 12th. Do know they have not exactly been stellar this fall and have changed week to week so i would not worry too much. See what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Brett Anderson at Accuweather summarizes the weeklies on a regular basis and as Harry said, they have flip flopped a lot this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Bill Deedler's Complete Outlook Check it out, very, very detailed analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Bill Deedler's Complete Outlook Check it out, very, very detailed analysis. Good stuff. I wonder when/if DTX will be releasing an outlook.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Bill Deedler's Complete Outlook Check it out, very, very detailed analysis. His analog Nina winters that match best with the current solar cycle...1890-91, 1903-04, 1917-18, 1964-65, and 2010-11. Well other than 1890-91...yes please. Once again, a very well written and reasoned outlook. Well done Mr. Deedler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 John Dee - REGION 2 – The Southeast Midwest: Overall, I think these areas are in for an average to colder than average winter. Snowfall looks to also be average to above average, which means some snow storms and periods of good snow play, but also includes thaws and periods where there just is not enough snow on the ground to play in- even in the dead of winter. As a rule of thumb, I think the further south you go, the more prone you will be to see above precip, but also average temps occur. My worry is that folks in the southern ½ of WI and portions of northern IL that have seen well above average snowfall the past few years will think of those as being average. So if average conditions occur this season, they will be thought of as being below average. Keep in mind that average snowfall for many areas of southern WI and northern IL is 40-50", not 60-80". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I think 67-68 is a better analog than any of them. 67-68 has alot going for it with QBO/Nina and solar/PDO it is so so. Strange how it all works though because despite all of that pattern wise ( Nov this year vs Nov 67 ) it is not even in the same ball park. That year had a Warm west/cold east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I didn't use 67-68 because '66-67 went from a decent El Nino to pretty much a Neutral pattern then La Nina in 67-68. Didn't fit the criteria I was looking at..mainly a La Nina to neutral and then back to La Nina. Timing was also an issue, tired to find ones that also peaked in the winters and died during the spring summer. I will say some of my analogues were not close to our recent trend but I also did a subset of the ones that fit and included SC with it (I will post that on blog soon). Though the exact numbers and monthly timing was not perfect, the mid 70s rank up there for the past several years and I feel we are now mimicking 74-75 as one of the better fits. What did you show for that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I didn't use 67-68 because '66-67 went from a decent El Nino to pretty much a Neutral pattern then La Nina in 67-68. Didn't fit the criteria I was looking at..mainly a La Nina to neutral and then back to La Nina. Timing was also an issue, tired to find ones that also peaked in the winters and died during the spring summer. I will say some of my analogues were not close to our recent trend but I also did a subset of the ones that fit and included SC with it (I will post that on blog soon). Though the exact numbers and monthly timing was not perfect, the mid 70s rank up there for the past several years and I feel we are now mimicking 74-75 as one of the better fits. What did you show for that winter? My SOI fix is quite similar though the winter in the Lakes (and much of the country) was also back end loaded with the 500MB shifting to more of a colder regime Jan-Mar for us. Overall, the winter was normal for temps and above snow with Nov-Dec '74 relatively mild...we had our big snowstorm 12/1/74 then but rest of month, non-eventful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 SnowDay.us final winter outlook... http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx Zone 4 : This portion of the country, the Ohio Valley, eastern Lakes and the northeastern United States will be the second hardest hit this winter, potentially crippling snowstorms slated for the Ohio Valley and the northeastern United States. I am expecting at least 1-2 major block buster blizzards to track through the Ohio Valley and the eastern Great Lakes states this winter, with ice storm risk over the warm front in the northeastern United States as the storm system moves through Michigan. This winters snowfall will be much greater in the Ohio Valley then last winter, due to the much above average soil moisture conditions this fall, this is a huge deal when it comes to the winter precip, and I am expecting MUCH above average precipitation totals this winter. Another storm track will be from Colorado, the Colorado Low pressure system will lay a spread the wealth significant accumulating in this area. Another storm track will be from the Alberta Clipper, that will lay a quick hitting 3-7" snowfall and strong winds and a strong push of arctic air behind it. The other big storm track will be a Nor'Easters, that will hit hard the northeast, particulary from Washington DC to New York City to Boston to eastern Maine, but I am expecting DC to miss more snowstorm this winter then the last couple. Washington DC looks to get more ice and a sleet mixture with storm systems this winter with major blizzards possible north of DC more so in the New York City area on north. Temperatures will be below average for the entire winter in general, but I am expecting there to be several episodic periods of warmth and ridging in the northeastern United States as the western United States trough develops. There will be quite a few fluctuations in temperatures this winter, some days will be MUCH above average and then the next day could be MUCH below average in temperatures, wont be a strong pattern for anymore then 2-3 weeks this winter at a time, but when it does come, expect major storm systems to dump lots of snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Checking out mild Novembers in my analogue years>>>>> http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2011/11/analogue-yearsmild-or-warm-novembermild.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 New Euro = Good News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Can anyone give me their impressions of 93-94 winter? Just wondering; that's a top 10 winter for both Madison and Milwaukee, and looking at NCDC's archive of snowstorms, it looks like it was a very active January and February in the area with a solid storm (6-12 inches) just about every week during those months. I would take a scenario like that over one or two big storms but little else significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Checking out mild Novembers in my analogue years>>>>> http://weatherhistor...vembermild.html Im not sure if this statement is true or False but what I can remember every time at least in recent years its been a mild November we have big snows DEC through April. 1998/99, 2007/08, 2008/2009. Those were huge Snow years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Can anyone give me their impressions of 93-94 winter? Just wondering; that's a top 10 winter for both Madison and Milwaukee, and looking at NCDC's archive of snowstorms, it looks like it was a very active January and February in the area with a solid storm (6-12 inches) just about every week during those months. I would take a scenario like that over one or two big storms but little else significant. Seems MSN and MKE were in a good spot that winter. Snowfall totals from a few other sites below...nothing overwhelming for most. MSP: 55.7" ORD: 41.8" RFD: 51.5" GRR: 76.5" LAN: 50.3" MKG: 132.5" DTW: 45.8" FNT: 44.6" Of course I'll always remember that winter for the cold stretch in January, my freshman year at Purdue. Jan 14, 1994: 16.0....-6.0 Jan 15, 1994: -3.0....-13.0 Jan 16, 1994: 16.0....-11.0 Jan 17, 1994: 17.0....-7.0 Jan 18, 1994: -7.0....-19.0 Jan 19, 1994: 0.0....-22.0 Jan 20, 1994: 15.0....-12.0 Jan 21, 1994: 17.0....-15.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Seems MSN and MKE were in a good spot that winter. Snowfall totals from a few other sites below...nothing overwhelming for most. MSP: 55.7" ORD: 41.8" RFD: 51.5" GRR: 76.5" LAN: 50.3" MKG: 132.5" DTW: 45.8" FNT: 44.6" Of course I'll always remember that winter for the cold stretch in January, my freshman year at Purdue. Jan 14, 1994: 16.0....-6.0 Jan 15, 1994: -3.0....-13.0 Jan 16, 1994: 16.0....-11.0 Jan 17, 1994: 17.0....-7.0 Jan 18, 1994: -7.0....-19.0 Jan 19, 1994: 0.0....-22.0 Jan 20, 1994: 15.0....-12.0 Jan 21, 1994: 17.0....-15.0 Jan 1994 Cold Outbreak video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Jan 1994 Cold Outbreak video I always feel a little bad for the reporter on the street in conditions like that, like that guy in the video. Awesome cold stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I always feel a little bad for the reporter on the street in conditions like that, like that guy in the video. Awesome cold stretch. The best cold stretch EVER. We only hit that day up here -5 for the high and -22 for the low. Me and brother at the time drove down a Road with the windows rolled down with temp gauge in my blazer reading -14 at 7:00pm at night. Yes it was stupid but I was only 17 and at the time I was a weather fanatic I had to try it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Im not sure if this statement is true or False but what I can remember every time at least in recent years its been a mild November we have big snows DEC through April. 1998/99, 2007/08, 2008/2009. Those were huge Snow years. The trough shifted east with time and allowed more Arctic air to plunge into the central US and gin-up some nice storms for the central/east. It makes sense that the sharper temperature conflict & created baroclinic zone with the still mild Gulf would do its part in storm creation especially over the MidWest & Lakes east across the Ohio Valley/East coast. I found the stormy times trended 1) mid-late season and 2) early & late. I can either scenario for the Lakes. The cold blasts could be too strong and shift a charged-up storm track just south/east of SE MIch early in the season OR we are in the "zone" ;-) That's probably why my snow patterns reflected both scenarios with mid-late the strongest. However, and I stated in WO, the snow amounts were all over the board and those two subtle trends (1 & 2 ) showed up. This is gonna be a tuff winter to forecast mainly because of the strong northern Pacific jet (acting more like a "northern El Nino" - so to speak with the fast zonal flow). We need that Ridge development and then WHERE? -Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Seems MSN and MKE were in a good spot that winter. Snowfall totals from a few other sites below...nothing overwhelming for most. MSP: 55.7" ORD: 41.8" RFD: 51.5" GRR: 76.5" LAN: 50.3" MKG: 132.5" DTW: 45.8" FNT: 44.6" Of course I'll always remember that winter for the cold stretch in January, my freshman year at Purdue. Jan 14, 1994: 16.0....-6.0 Jan 15, 1994: -3.0....-13.0 Jan 16, 1994: 16.0....-11.0 Jan 17, 1994: 17.0....-7.0 Jan 18, 1994: -7.0....-19.0 Jan 19, 1994: 0.0....-22.0 Jan 20, 1994: 15.0....-12.0 Jan 21, 1994: 17.0....-15.0 Probably the most impressive part of that is the high of -7. That is not easy to do around here. I remember getting a couple days off from school...the only time I can recall school being cancelled due to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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