Analog years: 1950-51, 1964-65, 1968-69, 1970-71, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09. Thankfully, the weakest of the list are 1999-00 and 2001-02. I base this on late Sept early October SSTA of the Pacific AND the Atlantic as well as other factors. ENSO sometimes doesn't add up well but so be it. Here is the winter composite (dec-march) using those years. Winters overall are average. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Research