MJO812 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/WINTER1112/WINTER1112version1.htm I think a lot of people will like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 95-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 easy to follow, good job dt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 nicely done. He does note that it hinges on several factors occuring and if they don't occur or occur differently, then the midwest may be the jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 nicely done. He does note that it hinges on several factors occuring and if they don't occur or occur differently, then the midwest may be the jackpot area. It always comes down to the NAO and PNA. I just hope the NAO is mostly negative and the PNA is positive this winter. I know the PNA tends to be negative during la nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 the MEI index says we are in La Nina now while the oni index says we started the fall to La Nina...last year at this time there already was a strong La Nina and the winter was great...La Nina winters usually have one great 15-30 day period when it's very cold and snowy...I think the la nina could peak between -0.7 and -0.9 on the oni index...That would put 2011-12 close to these years enso index for DJF... 1956-57...-0.5 1961-62...-0.4 1962-63...-0.6 1964-65...-0.8 1966-67...-0.4 1967-68...-0.7 1971-72...-0.7 1974-75...-0.6 1983-84...-0.4 1984-85...-0.9 1985-86...-0.5 1995-96...-0.7 2005-06...-0.7 2008-09...-0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 if we can get the most recent super slow closed low to come back around in jan/feb, that would be super! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 why is this thread so quiet? that's very close to a full fledged "woof!" from DT. DT's re-curving hurricane correlation is pretty interesting and compelling. one thing about DT, he never wears snow goggles... whether consciously or subconsciously, he's never a wishful thinker. i definitely perked up in my chair reading his outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisant Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 DT and JB have been yammering about the re-curving for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 DT and JB have been yammering about the re-curving for a while now. JB should be happy with all the recurves (Alhough his impact forecast busted horribly) so now he can get his cold and snowy winter and the weenies will be running to his site with 10's and 20's in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 JB should be happy with all the recurves (Alhough his impact forecast busted horribly) so now he can get his cold and snowy winter and the weenies will be running to his site with 10's and 20's in hand. You're one of them, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You're one of them, LOL. Takes one to know one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Takes one to know one... you follow them, it puts you far ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 you follow them, it puts you far ahead. Agree-makes sense to read a bunch of people--JB has his pros and cons as does DT...I like to read and follow a bunch of mets to get different opinions on forecasts/etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Is JB's site a pay site now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Is JB's site a pay site now? Yup...it's monthly or yearly-you get 2 free months if you do yearly...I did the yearly package right before Irene--only to see him bust horribly..."skyscraper windows to blow out" and AC's worst storm since 44 (verification was close to nothing in AC!-other than a rainy noreaster) Joe D'leo writes some nice columns on the site too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yup...it's monthly or yearly-you get 2 free months if you do yearly...I did the yearly package right before Irene--only to see him bust horribly..."skyscraper windows to blow out" and AC's worst storm since 44 (verification was close to nothing in AC!-other than a rainy noreaster) Joe D'leo writes some nice columns on the site too... so nothing has changed, he is still a hype artist who is often wrong and seldom right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 so nothing has changed, he is still a hype artist who is often wrong and seldom right. I like him for long term pattern recognition--he's often horrible on individual storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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