The Seven Pillars Of October

[Rainshadow]

Tony, what are the break points for middle third between cold and warm in November?

The cold/normal/warm cut offs are 45.3F/normal/47.5F. November has warmed so much over the last decade and with dropping the 1970s, the new November "normal" is 47.6F. This may start messing Mark up too, he uses November min temps as a predictor in his regression equations. I think for this fall I'm going to widen the net and include any above the long term median Novembers. If I don't, I'll just have 1998-9.

[tombo82685]

up to 1.7 positive departure for the month right now.

[Rainshadow]

up to 1.7 positive departure for the month right now.

Yup November is not going to be cold. I went back this am and looked at some close to nina but non technically nina winters that followed nina winters (like 2008-9) that I may add to the "list". I think I'll be posting the analog series on the 27th or 28th. Just came back from Home Depot, passed on the salt because all they had were sodium bags, bought a half cord log rack, so this probably translates into a "warm", snowy winter.

[Rainshadow]

Meh, I did 95% of the analog work on shift today, not very exciting. Well last year proved to take the snow part with a grain of salt, or given how much snow fell, with bags and bags of salt.

[Rainshadow]

This is pretty much doomed for failure, exactly normal in the world of weather is almost always a statistical anomaly.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE EMBARKING ON THE SOJOURN AS TO HOW THE CURRENT
ENSO STATE AND FALL TEMPERATURES HAVE RELATED TO ENSUING WINTERS IN
THE PAST IN PHILADELPHIA.

AS THE LAST TWO WINTERS HAVE PROVEN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO) CAN THOROUGHLY TRUMPED THE PACIFIC ENSO STATE. BOTH A
STRONG EL NINO AND MODERATE LA NINA WERE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
COLDER AND QUITE SNOWY WINTERS. NAO SEASONAL OUTLOOKS REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO VERIFY. WHILE ITS RARE TO HAVE THREE CONSECUTIVE
STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WINTERS IN A ROW, WE GET INTO A HEAP OF
TROUBLE WHEN WE START ANY METEOROLOGICAL SENTENCE WITH "WE
NEVER..."

LOOKING GLOBALLY THIS AUTUMN, OCTOBER NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC AND
EURASIAN SNOW COVER LAGGED VS THE PAST TWO OCTOBERS. IT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN NOVEMBER. THE NUMBER OF RECURVING NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS (A PAPER ABOUT HEAT REDISTRIBUTION BY
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ROBERT HART AT FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY) THAT
REACHED 40N WAS WITHIN THE NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. WE ARE ENTERING
THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO) THAT
NORMALLY FAVORS MORE STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS AND THUS HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE NEWFOUNDLAND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
POOL (A METHOD OF TRYING TO OUTLOOK THE NAO) AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL
PRIOR TO THE RUSH OF THE PAST HURRICANE SEASON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A
CLOSER TO NEUTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER. THE INDIAN OCEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE, A FLIP FROM LAST WINTER. THE PACIFIC DECADAL
OSCILLATION REMAINS NEGATIVE (WARMEST WATER RELATIVE TO NORMAL IN
THE WESTERN PACIFIC). THIS NORMALLY WOULD NOT FAVOR A PREVAILING
COLDER POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION (PNA). THE
LATEST WEEKLY ENSO READING IS IN THE WEAK LA NINA CATEGORY. NEARLY
ALL GLOBAL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE OUTLOOKING EITHER A
WEAK OR MODERATE LA NINA FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER. MOST HAVE IT AS
AN EARLY NEGATIVE PEAK WEAKENING (OR WARMING) AS THE WINTER
PROGRESSES.

AS FOR OUR OWN BACKYARD, THIS PAST OCTOBER, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE,
FELL WITHIN THE "NORMAL" THIRD OF ALL OCTOBERS. THIS NOVEMBER WILL
FALL INTO THE "WARM" THIRD OF ALL NOVEMBERS, RANKING SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE 10TH WARMEST. THE LA NINA STATE AND THE OCTOBER AND
NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES LEFT US WITH SLIM ANALOG PICKINGS.
TO HAVE AT LEAST FOUR ANALOGS, WE EXPANDED OUR POOL TO INCLUDE
WINTERS WITH NEGATIVE (COLDER) ENSO VALUES, EVEN IF THEY DID NOT
REACH THE FORMAL NINA DEFINITION. MOST OF THE ANALOGS WERE THE
SECOND OR LATER WINTER SEASONS IN A STRING OF MULTIPLE WINTER NINA
SEASONS. MOST ALSO HAD ABOVE NORMAL NOVEMBER NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
SNOW AND ICE COVER.

FOR BETTER OR WORSE THIS IS THIS WINTER`S VERSION OF OUR PHIL FAB
FOUR:

SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
              AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL*  PCPN

1945-6         29.8     33.8     34.5     32.7       19.0    7.18
1998-9         42.0     35.0     38.0     38.3       12.8    8.66
1999-0         39.9     32.1     37.5     36.5       21.3    8.23
2008-9         35.9     29.1     37.1     34.0       23.2    9.12

AVG            36.9     32.5     36.8     35.4       19.1    8.30
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

* THIS INCLUDES THE 0.3" THAT FELL IN OCTOBER. OUR RESEARCH HAS
ALWAYS BEEN TEMPERATURE BASED. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS DECEMBER
WILL BE AS COLD AS DECEMBER 1945. SINCE NATURE REALLY DOES NOT
RECOGNIZE MONTHS (AS WE DO), WE WOULD VIEW THIS AS AN INDICATION OF
A COLD STRETCH OR MONTH DURING DECEMBER AND OR JANUARY THIS UPCOMING
WINTER. AS A REMINDER THE SNOWFALL GOES ALONG FOR THE RIDE WITH THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WINTER ANALOGS. WE SHOULD HAVE RETIRED AFTER THE
WINTER OF 2008-9 WHEN WE CAME WITHIN HALF AN INCH OF THE ACTUAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNT. DURING THE LAST TWO WINTER SEASONS, THE SNOWFALL
PART FAILED MISERABLY.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA WINTERS TEND TO
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL. THE WEAKER THE NINA, THE COLDER AND
SNOWIER THE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED. LARGER SNOWS (6 INCHES OR GREATER
SINGLE EVENTS AS MEASURED AT PHL) ARE CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE OF NEARLY ONE PER SEASON IN WEAK NINA WINTERS. UNDER MOST
CIRCUMSTANCES, THEY AVERAGE LESS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM IN
MODERATE OR STRONGER NINA WINTERS. LAST WINTER PROVED THERE ARE
EXCEPTIONS. IT WAS THE SNOWIEST MODERATE OR STRONG LA NINA ON
RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA.

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COOLER THAN NORMAL AND EITHER WETTER OR
DRIER THAN NORMAL.

WE WANT TO WISH EVERYONE A VERY HAPPY AND HEALTHY WINTER SEASON.

[Grothar]

This is pretty much doomed for failure, exactly normal in the world of weather is almost always a statistical anomaly.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE EMBARKING ON THE SOJOURN AS TO HOW THE CURRENT
ENSO STATE AND FALL TEMPERATURES HAVE RELATED TO ENSUING WINTERS IN
THE PAST IN PHILADELPHIA.

AS THE LAST TWO WINTERS HAVE PROVEN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO) CAN THOROUGHLY TRUMPED THE PACIFIC ENSO STATE. BOTH A
STRONG EL NINO AND MODERATE LA NINA WERE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
COLDER AND QUITE SNOWY WINTERS. NAO SEASONAL OUTLOOKS REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO VERIFY. WHILE ITS RARE TO HAVE THREE CONSECUTIVE
STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WINTERS IN A ROW, WE GET INTO A HEAP OF
TROUBLE WHEN WE START ANY METEOROLOGICAL SENTENCE WITH "WE
NEVER..."

LOOKING GLOBALLY THIS AUTUMN, OCTOBER NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC AND
EURASIAN SNOW COVER LAGGED VS THE PAST TWO OCTOBERS. IT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN NOVEMBER. THE NUMBER OF RECURVING NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS (A PAPER ABOUT HEAT REDISTRIBUTION BY
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR ROBERT HART AT FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY) THAT
REACHED 40N WAS WITHIN THE NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. WE ARE ENTERING
THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO) THAT
NORMALLY FAVORS MORE STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS AND THUS HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE NEWFOUNDLAND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
POOL (A METHOD OF TRYING TO OUTLOOK THE NAO) AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL
PRIOR TO THE RUSH OF THE PAST HURRICANE SEASON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A
CLOSER TO NEUTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER. THE INDIAN OCEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE, A FLIP FROM LAST WINTER. THE PACIFIC DECADAL
OSCILLATION REMAINS NEGATIVE (WARMEST WATER RELATIVE TO NORMAL IN
THE WESTERN PACIFIC). THIS NORMALLY WOULD NOT FAVOR A PREVAILING
COLDER POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION (PNA). THE
LATEST WEEKLY ENSO READING IS IN THE WEAK LA NINA CATEGORY. NEARLY
ALL GLOBAL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE OUTLOOKING EITHER A
WEAK OR MODERATE LA NINA FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER. MOST HAVE IT AS
AN EARLY NEGATIVE PEAK WEAKENING (OR WARMING) AS THE WINTER
PROGRESSES.

AS FOR OUR OWN BACKYARD, THIS PAST OCTOBER, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE,
FELL WITHIN THE "NORMAL" THIRD OF ALL OCTOBERS. THIS NOVEMBER WILL
FALL INTO THE "WARM" THIRD OF ALL NOVEMBERS, RANKING SOMEWHERE
AROUND THE 10TH WARMEST. THE LA NINA STATE AND THE OCTOBER AND
NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES LEFT US WITH SLIM ANALOG PICKINGS.
TO HAVE AT LEAST FOUR ANALOGS, WE EXPANDED OUR POOL TO INCLUDE
WINTERS WITH NEGATIVE (COLDER) ENSO VALUES, EVEN IF THEY DID NOT
REACH THE FORMAL NINA DEFINITION. MOST OF THE ANALOGS WERE THE
SECOND OR LATER WINTER SEASONS IN A STRING OF MULTIPLE WINTER NINA
SEASONS. MOST ALSO HAD ABOVE NORMAL NOVEMBER NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
SNOW AND ICE COVER.

FOR BETTER OR WORSE THIS IS THIS WINTER`S VERSION OF OUR PHIL FAB
FOUR:

SEASON     	DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
          	AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG 	SNOWFALL*  PCPN

1945-6     	29.8 	33.8 	34.5 	32.7   	19.0    7.18
1998-9     	42.0 	35.0 	38.0 	38.3   	12.8    8.66
1999-0     	39.9 	32.1 	37.5 	36.5   	21.3    8.23
2008-9     	35.9 	29.1 	37.1 	34.0   	23.2    9.12

AVG            36.9 	32.5 	36.8 	35.4   	19.1    8.30
1981-2010 NML  37.5 	33.0 	35.7 	35.4   	22.4    9.24

* THIS INCLUDES THE 0.3" THAT FELL IN OCTOBER. OUR RESEARCH HAS
ALWAYS BEEN TEMPERATURE BASED. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS DECEMBER
WILL BE AS COLD AS DECEMBER 1945. SINCE NATURE REALLY DOES NOT
RECOGNIZE MONTHS (AS WE DO), WE WOULD VIEW THIS AS AN INDICATION OF
A COLD STRETCH OR MONTH DURING DECEMBER AND OR JANUARY THIS UPCOMING
WINTER. AS A REMINDER THE SNOWFALL GOES ALONG FOR THE RIDE WITH THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WINTER ANALOGS. WE SHOULD HAVE RETIRED AFTER THE
WINTER OF 2008-9 WHEN WE CAME WITHIN HALF AN INCH OF THE ACTUAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNT. DURING THE LAST TWO WINTER SEASONS, THE SNOWFALL
PART FAILED MISERABLY.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA WINTERS TEND TO
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL. THE WEAKER THE NINA, THE COLDER AND
SNOWIER THE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED. LARGER SNOWS (6 INCHES OR GREATER
SINGLE EVENTS AS MEASURED AT PHL) ARE CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE OF NEARLY ONE PER SEASON IN WEAK NINA WINTERS. UNDER MOST
CIRCUMSTANCES, THEY AVERAGE LESS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM IN
MODERATE OR STRONGER NINA WINTERS. LAST WINTER PROVED THERE ARE
EXCEPTIONS.[b][u] IT WAS THE SNOWIEST MODERATE OR STRONG LA NINA ON
RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA[/u][/b].

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COOLER THAN NORMAL AND EITHER WETTER OR
DRIER THAN NORMAL.

WE WANT TO WISH EVERYONE A VERY HAPPY AND HEALTHY WINTER SEASON.

I am sure glad he stated the La Nina pattern was in only Philly because those just to the north and west of Philly would highly disagree with the underline synopsis. What happens in Philly, stays in Philly. The La Nina pattern last year sucked for those in the Lehigh Valley and southern and western Poconos. Frankly I do not care what is going on right now because the winter patterns have not even evolved right now. When the final winter pattern does evolve in the next two weeks, then better weather forecasting can be made for our area. Until then, the models will show everything including a heat wave and a record arctic front for PA

[Rainshadow]

I am sure glad he stated the La Nina pattern was in only Philly because those just to the north and west of Philly would highly disagree with the underline synopsis. What happens in Philly, stays in Philly. The La Nina pattern last year sucked for those in the Lehigh Valley and southern and western Poconos. Frankly I do not care what is going on right now because the winter patterns have not even evolved right now. When the final winter pattern does evolve in the next two weeks, then better weather forecasting can be made for our area. Until then, the models will show everything including a heat wave and a record arctic front for PA

Continuous snowfall records in Allentown have been kept since the mid 1920s while Philadelphia's go back into the mid 1880s, so there were likely some snowier Ninas prior to the mid 1920s in Allentown. Given that, the 38.9" of snow that fell in Allentown last winter, while less than Philadelphia (44"), was the third snowiest la nina on record since the mid 1920s and the snowiest moderate or strong la nina on record for Allentown.

[Rainshadow]

When Mark does his regression equation work, I'll post it. I think he's going to come in with a winter average colder than me based on what I know of his predictors.

Til then, in map form:

[phlwx]

Good stuff tony. Not surprised 99-00 and 08-09 popped up as two of the analogs.

Funny thing is none of the winters were particularly snowy but you do generally get one solid cold(er) month.*

*colder doesn't mean colder than average, as 98-99 can attest...but it does mean one of the months is much colder than the others...whether it be December (45) or January (the others)

[Rainshadow]

Good stuff tony. Not surprised 99-00 and 08-09 popped up as two of the analogs.

Funny thing is none of the winters were particularly snowy but you do generally get one solid cold(er) month.*

*colder doesn't mean colder than average, as 98-99 can attest...but it does mean one of the months is much colder than the others...whether it be December (45) or January (the others)

Yup, would think down the road there will be a qbo/sswa effect. If it comes sooner than later, it would gel the Atlantic to be more receptive to sustaining a -nao. As for snow, with a normal that is relatively low, one hit or just miss can make/break a boatload of winters.

[Rainshadow]

Below is the link to Mark's conditional winter outlook. Based on normal climo we would be within 0.1F of each other. We have never been this close before, which likely means expect anything but.

http://www.erh.noaa....nd2011_2012.pdf

[Animal]

Seems we may have a winner

1998-9 42.0 35.0 38.0 38.3 12.8 8.66