WxUSAF Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 TD13/Lee looks like it could give us widespread 2"+ rainfalls next week as the moisture gets pulled northward along the stalling cold front and the remnant low stalls over the Apps. 12z GFS brings Katia as close to our area as any forecast yet. Would certainly bring high surf, beach erosion and a blustery day to Ocean City, verbatim. Discuss! Edit...updated thread title since TD13 was upgraded to TS Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hopefully Katia finishes off SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hopefully Katia finishes off SNE. Then they won't steal all our snow this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hopefully Katia finishes off SNE. Hopefully not cause its the best area to live in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Tue/Wed just a rainy mess again per the 12z Euro. Wundermap out to 126 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 5 inches at iAd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MORE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM LEE MAY GET DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET CAUSING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MAY OVERRIDE COOLER AIR IN PLACE CAUSING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM LEE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'd still be surprised if Katia is any issue at all. But Lee is a bit of a wildcard depending on its upper level trough influence and location. I do like the idea of some big rain from Lee though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F02%2F2011+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p60&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Click on this animated GFS link and watch Katia crawl like a centipede and then, at the end of the period, watch Katia slingshot north and then NNW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Click on this animated GFS link and watch Katia crawl like a centipede and then, at the end of the period, watch Katia slingshot north and then NNW! As I'm sure you know, northern latitude + 12 hour intervals = big perceived accelerations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Lee will most definitely threathen the MA with several inches of rain, especially western portions...but with NOGAPS and UKMet the only support for a Katia threat...I'd say it's almost not worth mentioning until there is other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Lee will most definitely threaten the MA with several inches of rain, especially western portions...but with NOGAPS and UKMet the only support for a Katia threat...I'd say it's almost not worth mentioning until there is other model support. Pretty much sums it up at this point, though I think it's actually too early to call where the rain will end up in the Mid-Atlantic. Though the western areas are definitely favored at this point (and I do agree that it looks like the western areas should receive the greatest rainfall), models have been struggling with the front/Lee interaction since day one, and I wouldn't be surprised if our end result is different from the western Mid-Atlantic solution. As far as Katia, I believe that it will miss the US (though the Canadian Maritimes are still at risk). Expecting it to "recurve" around 67-72 W as it moves by the Carolina coastline (...I usually don't post tropical forecasts out since I don't really know enough to fully explain it). While not too much further west, I think Don S. is a little too optimistic WRT bringing Katia closer to the US coast. The 00z GFS sums up my thoughts pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 No 'shadow' on this map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Pretty much sums it up at this point, though I think it's actually too early to call where the rain will end up in the Mid-Atlantic. Though the western areas are definitely favored at this point (and I do agree that it looks like the western areas should receive the greatest rainfall), models have been struggling with the front/Lee interaction since day one, and I wouldn't be surprised if our end result is different from the western Mid-Atlantic solution. As far as Katia, I believe that it will miss the US (though the Canadian Maritimes are still at risk). Expecting it to "recurve" around 67-72 W as it moves by the Carolina coastline (...I usually don't post tropical forecasts out since I don't really know enough to fully explain it). While not too much further west, I think Don S. is a little too optimistic WRT bringing Katia closer to the US coast. The 00z GFS sums up my thoughts pretty well. I agree with you about Don probably beingn a little optimistic about the chances of a u.S, landfall with Katia. Lee is a really interesting storm. It a distinct low and mid level circulation remains to Lee, it almost guarantees one max on the east side of the mountains as there usually is enough of an easterly component to enhance the lifting as the storm moves through. However, there also often is some other max. I wrote something in the Lee threat the the W &F forum on the storm. There is lots of uncertainty about the latitude and timing of max since we still don't know the track of the storm and the nam continues to hold the system in the gulf for an extended period. I think it looks unlikely but have been surprised in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 No 'shadow' on this map: That's a keeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 better get my backup sump pump replaced it worked like a charm for Irene then I tested it yesterday and its shot I guess Irene-1, Sump-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The NAM is awesome. Part of me has to root for that. I love when weather schools everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The NAM is awesome. Part of me has to root for that. I love when weather schools everyone. The GFS isn't all that different, it's not as far west but does pretty much stall Lee for 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I agree with you about Don probably beingn a little optimistic about the chances of a u.S, landfall with Katia. Lee is a really interesting storm. It a distinct low and mid level circulation remains to Lee, it almost guarantees one max on the east side of the mountains as there usually is enough of an easterly component to enhance the lifting as the storm moves through. However, there also often is some other max. I wrote something in the Lee threat the the W &F forum on the storm. There is lots of uncertainty about the latitude and timing of max since we still don't know the track of the storm and the nam continues to hold the system in the gulf for an extended period. I think it looks unlikely but have been surprised in the past. The new Euro suggests that the statement highlighted above may not be right and that Don's original 30% of a storm impacting the U.S. may not be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 No 'shadow' on this map: This is definitely wrong. It shows Frederick getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The new Euro suggests that the statement highlighted above may not be right and that Don's original 30% of a storm impacting the U.S. may not be that bad. Still the euro while shifting west with its track still has the storm recurving and missing the u.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Lee seems less and less clear cut. I wonder if it will end up drifting back wsw etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 HPC pretty gung ho on a big QPF event...18z models not so much...or I should say not as much as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Qpf has backed off big time since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Qpf has backed off big time since yesterday 00Z GFS looks mighty wet over the next 5 days around DC/BWI. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Gfs brings qpf backl. 5 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 6z GFS has ~5" as well with Wednesday as the rainiest day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Jesus... That would cause some major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I hope the northeast gets 7 feet of rain. I am sick to death of them getting all of my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 This rain looks to threaten Strasburg's return game on Tuesday evening. I have 8 tickets to it. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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