blizzardof09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There is still an absolute ton of dry air working into the storm...the water vapor loop is highly unimpressive. So is the storm gonna weaken a good bit soon? What kind of implications does it have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How lfar do the gulf stream waters go north? all the way up the coast, it bounces off of Cape May point NE towards the eastarn point of LI, there we're tropical fish reported off of LI not that many years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I reccomend you read the main thread, lots of information on there from mets about why the dry air is not being drawn in as alot of us think. Sorry, but this is simple meteorology. Connect the dots, what do you think is happening here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So is the storm gonna weaken a good bit soon? What kind of implications does it have? I reccomend everyone here takes the time to read the main forum where all of the experienced mets are, there you will find a good explanation of why dry air is not a big factor at the moment and information about why Irene appears to be ready to strengthen some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Sorry, but this is simple meteorology. Connect the dots, what do you think is happening here? the inflow is not coming off the SE coast, its coming off the ocean SE of Florida, where the air is still moist, I don't know the exact reasoning behind it, but this is coming from a very credible source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's to be expected with a storm like this coming close to our continent. It was certainly Gloria's undoing back in 1985. It was her speed that really ripped her apart.I believe she was moving at 45MPH or more when she reached us.Her entire left side just collapsed.That was the greatest Tropical bust for NYC.WInd gusts were predicted to be 110-120MPH for the 5 boroughs in the early morning forecasts that Friday morning.By the time the first rain bands got here around 7-8AM,I knew that Gloria was going to not be even like Belle was.The winds on her backside did get to 65MPH and did more damage than her front part,but overall for NYC,she was a shell of her former self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 the inflow is not coming off the SE coast, its coming off the ocean SE of Florida, where the air is still moist, I don't know the exact reasoning behind it, but this is coming from a very credible source. It's not always about the direct inflow source--there is a good amount of dry air being wrapped into this system no matter which way you want to slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No offense but I've been hearing alot of this strengthening talk and it simply hasn't happened. Not saying it can't but I don't think anyone can truly predict that it in fact will. I reccomend everyone here takes the time to read the main forum where all of the experienced mets are, there you will find a good explanation of why dry air is not a big factor at the moment and information about why Irene appears to be ready to strengthen some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I do think there is room for strengthening though...and I'm not trying to totally discount that. I think by later tonight she will be much better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Day 2 projected rain totals (valid 8/28) Total projected rain totals (days 1-3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No offense but I've been hearing alot of this strengthening talk and it simply hasn't happened. Not saying it can't but I don't think anyone can truly predict that it in fact will. these things are so hard to predict, but some strengthening over the next 24 hours would go along with what alot of the models have been showing as the storm approaches the NC coast. Of course the Euro surface pressures seem way too low, but it points out the possability of intensifcation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Those HPC maps remind me of Floyd - that was the last time I witnessed 11 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. I was in Yorktown at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Day 2 projected rain totals (valid 8/28) Total projected rain totals (days 1-3) OKX precip. map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 But didn't most of the models predict it to be much stronger at this point in time? In other words this weakening wasn't expected. these things are so hard to predict, but some strengthening over the next 24 hours would go along with what alot of the models have been showing as the storm approaches the NC coast. Of course the Euro surface pressures seem way too low, but it points out the possability of intensifcation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 15z sref land fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Sorry, but this is simple meteorology. Connect the dots, what do you think is happening here? LOL... Why don't you go into the thread with the tropical experts, some of whom have doctorates, and argue with them that this is nothing more than "simple meteorology"? They've laid out their reasoning for their thinking quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No offense but I've been hearing alot of this strengthening talk and it simply hasn't happened. Not saying it can't but I don't think anyone can truly predict that it in fact will. go back and read the thread. Talk of strength increase has been occurring for 24 hours and has not occurred. IT does not look better but rather somewhat poor compared to earlier imop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 And if you recall Floyd was not expected to dump that amount of rain that it did. In fact it was supposed to be much worse on the coast and they were supposed to take the brunt of it. But most coastal NJ areas got away with less than 4" of rain and some wind. Those HPC maps remind me of Floyd - that was the last time I witnessed 11 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. I was in Yorktown at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isn't that what I said? go back and read the thread. Talk of strenght increase has been occurring for 24 hours and has not occurred. IT does not look better but rather somewhat poor compared to earlier imop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isn't that what I said? yes..i was in agreement and dont have a phd, but have eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Zone forecasts for NYC evacuations. Type your address to see you zone. Zone A is less then a mile from my house in Long Island City. Im in zone C myself, so its fine. Zone A which is under mandatory evacuation, covers a big portion of Queens, Staten Island, NYC and Brooklyn. Zone B as well. http://project.wnyc.org/news-maps/hurricane-zones/hurricane-zones.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 And some of the tropical models have shifted a touch east. Of course, I could be wrong. I think we'll have a better idea once we see if Irene begins to develop a somewhat east of north movement this evening and early tonight. If not, the Euro's idea will gain support. If, however, that movement develops, something closer to the GFS' idea will look better. According to Knabb, these are just "wobbles" Don and will likely keep wobbling back and forth as they have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 all the way up the coast, it bounces off of Cape May point NE towards the eastarn point of LI, there we're tropical fish reported off of LI not that many years back. Yup, the Gulf Stream bends east about 150 miles SE of Montauk. SST in the 80s out there! They also aid the massive explosive development of noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 LOL... Why don't you go into the thread with the tropical experts, some of whom have doctorates, and argue with them that this is nothing more than "simple meteorology"? They've laid out their reasoning for their thinking quite well. Simple meteorology might not have been the best term, but I don't think it's that hard to see that dry air has some involvement here. Also, I don't see you posting any opinions or ideas on the storm system...instead all you've been doing the past several days is rolling your eyes at posters and subtly calling people out in obnoxious posts , including myself now. I suggest maybe you could relax a bit, because you're quickly becoming one of the annoying posters who sits around and only chimes in when they feel somebody is incorrect... while you roll their eyes at them in a condescending manner. If you want to indulge in conversation, i'll quote some meteorologists from the main thread, which I just now read...and to my surprise (judging by your post which would seem to indicate that the meteorologists with doctorates didn't think there were dry air issues)...most of them seem to have the same idea I did. 2 words...dry air.Hypothesis...the SE/TX drought is going to be what prevents Irene from reaching her full potential. Soil moisture and WV maps below. I gotta wonder if the inflow now around Irene is tapping into the dry air, enhanced by drought over the Southeast and Texas. That's impressive dry air on WV imagery, and I have to think this is going to be the biggest limiting factor to Irene the next 24-48 hours. Look at any of the 12z levels and it's not DIRECT flow, but there's almost 0 question that some dry air is being wrapped into this thing by way of the Southeast. I will grant that it is not in the core of the storm yet. But it certainly can't be helping this thing. Both of those meteorologists essentially agree with the thoughts I posted above, which is that dry air is being wrapped into the system in some way and is not having a positive impact on the system, albiet not through direct flow. Maybe next time we can strike up some conversation in a less condescending manner. Take it easy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 According to Knabb, these are just "wobbles" Don and will likely keep wobbling back and forth as they have been. Right now they are. This evening and tonight will be important to determining whether a bearing to the right of north begins to manifest itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 And if you recall Floyd was not expected to dump that amount of rain that it did. In fact it was supposed to be much worse on the coast and they were supposed to take the brunt of it. But most coastal NJ areas got away with less than 4" of rain and some wind. Yeah I remember being caught off guard by the extent of the flooding in the Hudson Valley. I don't see why this storm moving relatively slow won't dump just as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Simple meteorology might not have been the best term, but I don't think it's that hard to see that dry air has some involvement here. Also, I don't see you posting any opinions or ideas on the storm system...instead all you've been doing the past several days is rolling your eyes at posters and subtly calling people out in obnoxious posts , including myself now. I suggest maybe you could relax a bit, because you're quickly becoming one of the annoying posters who sits around and only chimes in when they feel somebody is incorrect... while you roll their eyes at them in a condescending manner. If you want to indulge in conversation, i'll quote some meteorologists from the main thread, which I just now read...and to my surprise (judging by your post which would seem to indicate that the meteorologists with doctorates didn't think there were dry air issues)...most of them seem to have the same idea I did. Both of those meteorologists essentially agree with the thoughts I posted above, which is that dry air is being wrapped into the system in some way and is not having a positive impact on the system, albiet not through direct flow. Maybe next time we can strike up some conversation in a less condescending manner. Take it easy man. but John, you didn't read far enough down, there are responses to those posts with posts from other mets which disagree strongly, and give sound reasoning as to why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Simple meteorology might not have been the best term, but I don't think it's that hard to see that dry air has some involvement here. Also, I don't see you posting any opinions or ideas on the storm system...instead all you've been doing the past several days is rolling your eyes at posters and subtly calling people out in obnoxious posts , including myself now. I suggest maybe you could relax a bit, because you're quickly becoming one of the annoying posters who sits around and only chimes in when they feel somebody is incorrect... while you roll their eyes at them in a condescending manner. If you want to indulge in conversation, i'll quote some meteorologists from the main thread, which I just now read...and to my surprise (judging by your post which would seem to indicate that the meteorologists with doctorates didn't think there were dry air issues)...most of them seem to have the same idea I did. Both of those meteorologists essentially agree with the thoughts I posted above, which is that dry air is being wrapped into the system in some way and is not having a positive impact on the system, albiet not through direct flow. Maybe next time we can strike up some conversation in a less condescending manner. Take it easy man. lol...quote the whole conversation...those guys got owned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The precip shield is enormous. It is going to be sick on radar in 40 hrs when it engulfs our entire area. Flooding is going to be huge. Still thinking a cat 1 landfall in central LI, although the euro is consistently bringing it directly over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is the Gulf Stream not lined up with the highest potential energy waters south of the Carolinas? It seems that there is a disconnect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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