Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Previous discussion. http://www.americanw...ussion-part-ii/ 5 day NHC track is a hurricane lovers dream for SNE weather folks. Still time for track adjustments but the likelihood of a miss is becoming less probable. If this thing pans out, be safe out there and don't do anything stupid. This has the potential to be the big impact storm, one which we haven't see in most of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I just looked at that map, and I thought I was dreaming. This is probably going to be the best storm of our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My WORST Fears - A Hurricane Track West of me. That means Adding the forward speed of the storm to it's wind. Guys.......I'm SCARED!! Really!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That is a very dangerous track for damage in the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My WORST Fears - A Hurricane Track West of me. That means Adding the forward speed of the storm to it's wind. Guys.......I'm SCARED!! Really!! How does that work. Say we have a Cat 1 (80 mph) at a forward speed of 20 mph....does that roughly translate to a ground wind speed of 100 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Previous discussion.<a href='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24327-hurricane-irene-discussion-part-ii/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://www.americanw...ussion-part-ii/</a> 5 day NHC track is a hurricane lovers dream for SNE weather folks. Still time for track adjustments but the likelihood of a miss is becoming less probable. If this thing pans out, be safe out there and don't do anything stupid. This has the potential to be the big impact storm, one which we haven't see in most of our lives. <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/pimp.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Us old timers have seen it....and you're right. You don't want to be outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How does that work. Say we have a Cat 1 (80 mph) at a forward speed of 20 mph....does that roughly translate to a ground wind speed of 100 mph? The max wind speed listed by the NHC is INCLUSIVE of forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My WORST Fears - A Hurricane Track West of me. That means Adding the forward speed of the storm to it's wind. Guys.......I'm SCARED!! Really!! Due north of you in Mendon. I feel your pain. Well water...5 acres of big old oaks and pines on fragile slope terrain. This could be a really ugly week coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For those with kids moving into college...Stonehill just sent out an email about the possibility of delaying move-in weekend this weekend. They will update Friday afternoon. Maybe the first week of classes starting Wednesday will be postponed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Any of the mets want to comment on why things trended west today? I'm thinking it has to do with a weaker and farther west trough in the midwest? As well as the western atl ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 distance from Nag's Head, NC to Westhampton, NY is about 330 nm. Irene takes 15 to 18 hours on the GFS to move between the two locations...an average forward speed of 18 to 22 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Scott has to come home for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Us old timers have seen it....and you're right. You don't want to be outdoors. Yeah, there's a couple in here. This is looking like no joke right now and it's time to start making preparations. My birthday present is Irene. I will be cleaning things up around the yard on Saturday. Putting things away and picking up loose things around the yard. I also need to run to CT on Saturday after picking up my wife at TF Green to pick up my daughter who is with her grandparents. I'm kind of in a state of awe right now of what we are looking at. I'll wait till 12z tomorrow but this has come into better focus today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If it hits as currently modeled will Boston be shutdown on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Any of the mets want to comment on why things trended west today? I'm thinking it has to do with a weaker and farther west trough in the midwest? As well as the western atl ridge I think the Atlantic ridge also came in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That's a heck of a range - One thing I am noticing is a trend for a stronger trough into the eastern lakes - this is also reflected in the 18z GFS' depiction of a much faster translating system. It goes from the Va Capes to LI in just 12 hours, then to western Maine in another ... That's approaching azz-hauling speeds. The 18z GFS brings an upper emergency type scenario for much of the area, with flooding over the CT River Valley, and wind issues clear to the southern half of NH. I want a 5 paragraph Tip epic post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cantore is in PVD..and is absolutley stoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If it hits as currently modeled will Boston be shutdown on Monday? My first day back to work...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My first day back to work...lol Ouch. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I am REALLY excited about this storm. What an epic year of extreme weather events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cantore is in PVD..and is absolutley stoked He just mentioned "a 1938 type blow" . Let's hope not, 1938 before and after photos of the family farm 18 miles southwest of Boston: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 He just mentioned "a 1938 type blow" . Let's hope not, 1938 before and after photos of the family farm 18 miles southwest of Boston: Yeah said some of the very reliable models take this thing right up the Ct river valley like 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That is a very dangerous track for damage in the northeast Just secured one of the last available generators out here. Subaru engine, 10,000 watts. I was going to get a new one this fall anyway. I figured with the large size one I can help the elderly neighbor if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If it hits as currently modeled will Boston be shutdown on Monday? During Bob the governor ordered a State of Emergancy but that was on a weekday. All travel had to be completed by 11am or so. Business all closed. Routh 128 was empty in the afternoon as I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm directly on Narragansett Bay in Warren, RI. Surge should be epic here in the eastern section of the bay well southeast of the Providence Hurricane Barrier. Looking forward to 100mph + on the Davis Sunday afternoon. If track holds, will install stainless steel guy wires to anchor my anemometer post. I think I have all my pre-storm priorities in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1938 was moving at over 50 kt...this thing just won't be moving fast enough to hold intensity like that one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1938 was moving at over 50 kt...this thing just won't be moving fast enough to hold intensity like that one did. The 18z HWRF has it at 928mb just before landfall on western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 WRF came west..landfall western LI ..chills..just chills right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Man, the live thread is dead. Significant structural changes are going on in Irene, and there is zero discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Man, the live thread is dead. Significant structural changes are going on in Irene, and there is zero discussion New England folks don't go in those threads because we get lambasted when we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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