Interesting QBO Stats for Winter

[mitchnick]

Yeah, I understand what the QBO is, but I can't say I could explain how it effects our winter, so I am simply going on stats here.

July's QBO number was barely positive at .44 and headed down as has been mentioned already on the Board so we "should" have an official negative QBO as of the 8/11 number to be released in a couple weeks and it will headed further negative during the winter (assuming it doesn't act like the 88/89 anomaly mentioned below).

I wondered what a -QBO as of mid year and headed lower into winter might mean for the following winter and found these stats a bit more positive than the picture the CFS is painting (I mention in only because its the only readily, free long range forecast model)

I used the link below and I did not consider the early QBO years (prior to the late 50's) because the numbers looked odd compared to more recent years so I suspect the numbers to be flawed.

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

Anyway, if you take all years, regardless of ENSO, that had a QBO going negative as of the month of June or later in the year (as this year,) you ended up with the following winters:

64/65

67/68

76/77

81/82

86/87

88/89 (the only real dog, but if you look closely, the QBO stopped dropping and flat lined just below 0 for several months, a true anomaly compared to the other years)

93/94

95/96

00/01 (honorable mention because it went negative in 5/00)

09/10

Those are some historic winters in there folks and include NINAs and NINOs. Just sayin'

[Sparky]

I don't care what the naysayers say 76/77 was an awesome and memorable winter.

[BethesdaWX]

The -QBO has some influence on the NAO, and there is a clear correlation to DC snowfall in -QBO winters and +QBO winters, as well as temperatures.

Issue is we have a La Nina/+AMO at the time.

[SoCoWx]

The -QBO has some influence on the NAO, and there is a clear correlation to DC snowfall in -QBO winters and +QBO winters, as well as temperatures.

Issue is we have a La Nina/+AMO at the time.

The problem with this is that a La Nina does not have to behave how the science says it does. Also, we're at the tail-end of a +AMO cycle. I would expect a weakly positive AMO. Some of the model guidance suggest a flip to a -AMO the Winter after this one. But thats getting waaay out there.

[ORH_wxman]

There are distinct differences between -QBO La Nina winters and -QBO El Nino winters...the latter are much better for DC/BWI. I know you used June as the criteria, but I don't think it matters a ton when it goes negative as long as its well before mid autumn. Years like '07-'08, '70-'71 and '83-'84 (which should already be on there) would be on there as well.

[BethesdaWX]

There are distinct differences between -QBO La Nina winters and -QBO El Nino winters...the latter are much better for DC/BWI. I know you used June as the criteria, but I don't think it matters a ton when it goes negative as long as its well before mid autumn. Years like '07-'08, '70-'71 and '83-'84 (which should already be on there) would be on there as well.

La Nina seems to generally be worst for DC/BWI regardless of the QBO phase, (obviously not including the anomolous 1998 winter). The -QBO on its own is usually a positive down this way in any ENSO phase for obvious reasons.

Last winter was probably as bad as the setup could get really, and it showed itself in the end. +QBO, +IOD, Strong Basinwide La Nina/-PDO, +AMO. That basically screams torch, lucky for us the sun was there to help as far as temperatures go. With a -QBO, weaker La nina vs 2010-11, neutral IOD, cooler AMO, it is hard to presume a torch would be in store for the East coast.

[BethesdaWX]

The problem with this is that a La Nina does not have to behave how the science says it does. Also, we're at the tail-end of a +AMO cycle. I would expect a weakly positive AMO. Some of the model guidance suggest a flip to a -AMO the Winter after this one. But thats getting waaay out there.

Nothing has to behave how we want/think, but you need to be reasonable about these things, whatever a model shows in the AMO, or a weaker ENSO, doesn't mean much if the dominating signals remain the same. You probably won't see nearly as much snow as you did last winter (anomalous storm in late DEC).

[mitchnick]

There are distinct differences between -QBO La Nina winters and -QBO El Nino winters...the latter are much better for DC/BWI. I know you used June as the criteria, but I don't think it matters a ton when it goes negative as long as its well before mid autumn. Years like '07-'08, '70-'71 and '83-'84 (which should already be on there) would be on there as well.

I hear you, but what I found interesting was that when the QBO went negative June or later, it was still in the middle, more or less, of heading further negative during the winter

07/08 and 70/71 it had bottomed before DEC and was heading back towards positive

83/84 I forgot to list but note the progression of the QBO that year was not typical compared to the other years (flat for an extended period, then it bottomed out months later)

I still like the odds all things considered

anyway, if its gonna' be a NINA, the QBO is all we've got to hang onto down here

[mattie g]

I hear you, but what I found interesting was that when the QBO went negative June or later, it was still in the middle, more or less, of heading further negative during the winter

07/08 and 70/71 it had bottomed before DEC and was heading back towards positive

83/84 I forgot to list but note the progression of the QBO that year was not typical compared to the other years (flat for an extended period, then it bottomed out months later)

I still like the odds all things considered

anyway, if its gonna' be a NINA, the QBO is all we've got to hang onto down here

QBO! QBO! QBO!

[SoCoWx]

Nothing has to behave how we want/think, but you need to be reasonable about these things, whatever a model shows in the AMO, or a weaker ENSO, doesn't mean much if the dominating signals remain the same. You probably won't see nearly as much snow as you did last winter (anomalous storm in late DEC).

Oh I don't doubt it! Since the big late december storm seems to be an anomaly that has happened on a reoccuring 4-8 year cycle around here. Without that storm last Winter we would have receieved 7.05" of Snow. That would be slightly below average (10") and would have fell in line with the rest of the state particularly near I-95. My feelings on snowfall for my particular area this year are currently near normal with maybe a slight deviation from normal in either direction. And I think the snow will be more spread out in "nickel and dime" type of events instead of several heavy small snows and one big storm all in one month.

[BethesdaWX]

I hear you, but what I found interesting was that when the QBO went negative June or later, it was still in the middle, more or less, of heading further negative during the winter

07/08 and 70/71 it had bottomed before DEC and was heading back towards positive

83/84 I forgot to list but note the progression of the QBO that year was not typical compared to the other years (flat for an extended period, then it bottomed out months later)

I still like the odds all things considered

anyway, if its gonna' be a NINA, the QBO is all we've got to hang onto down here

We didn't start our decline until a few months ago, the descending easterly shear zone is now undercutting enough to where we're now in the -QBO phase it seems, given that & what is showing up in the upper Sigma levels it is hard to presume we'd bottom out before March IMFO.

[mitchnick]

We didn't start our decline until a few months ago, the descending easterly shear zone is now undercutting enough to where we're now in the -QBO phase it seems, given that & what is showing up in the upper Sigma levels it is hard to presume we'd bottom out before March IMFO.

I agree, and that seems to be the key (steady decline through the winter) to the decent winters

I guess we'll test my 2-bit theory in 4 short months

[mitchnick]

it's now official, QBO is negative...-.49

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[BethesdaWX]

I found that when I coupled -QBO years with low sun action years I got some very interesting winter analogs, even in La Nina mode. 1967/68 is fairly similar to this year setup wise, with the -PDO, second year La Nina, heading into a weak solar cycle, it may be a good analog year. Though even without the -QBO interesting matches come up, 2010/11, 1967/68, 1917/18, and 1903/04 all fit the profile. Though there were some duds such as 2008/09 and 1974/75, I'd take a 2008/09 repeat over 1974/75 any day.

Those who want to compare summer conditions in analog packages fine but I've never found a connection between summer & winter especially in the La Nina mode. Like my brother I am very in-tuned to stratospheric monitoring & external forcing upon the climate system, so I may bias there for winter forecasts but it seems to have worked for most folks when the sun went dormant geomagnetically.

Models cannot forecast what is not programmed into them, in this case the Sun's influence on high lattitude blocking, an intricate process based on the time-lag between the forcing impact and the response in the NAO index. This is why all models including the monthly ECMWF forecasted a blowtorch winter in 2010-11, the +IOD/+QBO & West-Based La Nina reflect a global signal not favorable for a -NAO in years past with the active sun, when these models were programmed, so I wouldn't trust them this winter either.

[WVclimo]

1967-68 was a strange winter in this area. No snow fell from 1/1 to 2/29, but still ended up with 39.9"

Early January was frigid.

[mitchnick]

1967-68 was a strange winter in this area. No snow fell from 1/1 to 2/29, but still ended up with 39.9"

Early January was frigid.

I was in 4th grade and remember almost getting stuck on a hill coming home in the under forecast NOV event

early season snows in NOV (8.4"), then light to mod snows the remaining months for a total a little over 23" at BWI

not a block buster winter, but AN snows and the rare season at BWI with measurable snow every month NOV-MAR inclusive

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwisnow.txt

IAD did much better than BWI: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/iad/iadsnow.txt

DCA a hair less than BWI: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/dcasnow.txt

I'll take it (though I want more snow!)

[mitchnick]

OCT QBO is -2.30

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

OK, but I'm hoping to see a better drop because of the only 2 dogs in the bunch with my criteria of QBO going negative as of the month of June or later in the year (83/84 and 91/92)

we want it to keep dropping steady and strong to avoid a "flat -QBO" like those 2 years

[Bob Chill]

OCT QBO is -2.30

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/qbo.u30.index

OK, but I'm hoping to see a better drop because of the only 2 dogs in the bunch with my criteria of QBO going negative as of the month of June or later in the year (83/84 and 91/92)

we want it to keep dropping steady and strong to avoid a "flat -QBO" like those 2 years

Don't worry about those years. Both featured neutral to positive NAO/AO through DJF and a positive PDO through the same period. I'm not saying the same thing can't happen this winter but the odds appear clearly stacked against it.

I'll take some time with your other years in the next couple of days and pull up the tabular NAO/AO/PDO indexes and compare against. Did you already drill down to compare enso tri-monthlies against your data?

[mitchnick]

Don't worry about those years. Both featured neutral to positive NAO/AO through DJF and a positive PDO through the same period. I'm not saying the same thing can't happen this winter but the odds appear clearly stacked against it.

I'll take some time with your other years in the next couple of days and pull up the tabular NAO/AO/PDO indexes and compare against. Did you already drill down to compare enso tri-monthlies against your data?

nah, I went strictly on QBO stats

if you look at the list in the first post, it includes a variety of ENSO

as of October 18, the average of the dynamic ENSO modelos was -.7C and average of the statistical models was -.6C for the winter

guess what 95/96 was for 4 consecutive tri-monthly numbers?.....-.7C

[Bob Chill]

nah, I went strictly on QBO stats

if you look at the list in the first post, it includes a variety of ENSO

as of October 18, the average of the dynamic ENSO modelos was -.7C and average of the statistical models was -.6C for the winter

guess what 95/96 was for 4 consecutive tri-monthly numbers?.....-.7C

Heh, 95/96. I was living in the CO rockies for most of the 90's so the only memories I have from the EC is what my friends were telling me. I've only dug into the big Jan storm because it was such a monster. What was the rest of the winter like in these parts? Based on total snowfall data there was still 25"+ outside of the big storm. Didn't it get warm for a while?

That was my most memorable snow year too. We had 150" in Jan and topped 400" for the season. I lived in the N central rockies so Ninas were good but Ninos were usually terrible until Feb. Southern mts used to steal all the snow. We relied on W-NE flow for our good snows. Anything SE-SW was a stinker and Ninos were full of that stuff.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Heh, 95/96. I was living in the CO rockies for most of the 90's so the only memories I have from the EC is what my friends were telling me. I've only dug into the big Jan storm because it was such a monster. What was the rest of the winter like in these parts? Based on total snowfall data there was still 25"+ outside of the big storm. Didn't it get warm for a while?

That was my most memorable snow year too. We had 150" in Jan and topped 400" for the season. I lived in the N central rockies so Ninas were good but Ninos were usually terrible until Feb. Southern mts used to steal all the snow. We relied on W-NE flow for our good snows. Anything SE-SW was a stinker and Ninos were full of that stuff.

That year was also notable for an early start as well. I don't remember the date exactly, but we had a significant snow pre-Thanksgiving ('95) out here. We had had a large rainstorm a week or so after the Jan 6 snow, which caused major flooding. And I remember a very cold snap in Feb that year (can't forget it because I had a pipe freeze and burst in my basement) that bottomed out at -6F one night in Front Royal. I don't recall being below zero since.

[mitchnick]

That year was also notable for an early start as well. I don't remember the date exactly, but we had a significant snow pre-Thanksgiving ('95) out here. We had had a large rainstorm a week or so after the Jan 6 snow, which caused major flooding. And I remember a very cold snap in Feb that year (can't forget it because I had a pipe freeze and burst in my basement) that bottomed out at -6F one night in Front Royal. I don't recall being below zero since.

even though it had notable warm-ups, it was a great snow winter, second only to 09/10

[clskinsfan]

I don't care what the naysayers say 76/77 was an awesome and memorable winter.

Yeah it snowed in the BAHAMAS that winter.

[EastCoast NPZ]

even though it had notable warm-ups, it was a great snow winter, second only to 09/10

It was indeed, unfortunately though the Jan 6 - 7 storm occupies most of my memory of that winter - minus the Nov storm and Feb artic blast. I just don't recall any of the other snow events. I guess it's hard to leave an impression after a historic 37- inch snowfall.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah it snowed in the BAHAMAS that winter.

Miami, too. Flurries IIRC. I lived in SW Va then, and we had a cold front, either in late Jan or early Feb come through and drop the temps from 50 to 8 in about an hour. Seemed like it snowed every three days that winter.

[mitchnick]

It was indeed, unfortunately though the Jan 6 - 7 storm occupies most of my memory of that winter - minus the Nov storm and Feb artic blast. I just don't recall any of the other snow events. I guess it's hard to leave an impression after a historic 37- inch snowfall.

meh, BWI turned into a sleet fest for around 6-8 hours, so our total was around 22.5"

don't get me wrong, I'd take a redux in a heartbeat, but it's just we would have had the 30" totals PHL saw if it hadn't

but we had 2 more events over the next 10 days after the bliz, then the big warm up, but winter returned with a 10"+ the beginning of FEB, then two more 4-6" events (I believe) during the rest of the winter (an early March snow too)

a lot of action that year; I didn't have the internet until 96', so I had to rely on TWC, NOAA radio, and local wx stations which is the real bummer in retrospect

[BethesdaWX]

I think the QBO is more complex than is presented here, it's not simply an attribution of the overall number [-2.3 in Setpember], as much as the location of the descending easterlies which are still well above the level needed for applicable forcing since the westerlies are still going at 50hpa

[mitchnick]

I think the QBO is more complex than is presented here, it's not simply an attribution of the overall number [-2.3 in Setpember], as much as the location of the descending easterlies which are still well above the level needed for applicable forcing since the westerlies are still going at 50hpa

I agree

that's why I warned in my original post "Yeah, I understand what the QBO is, but I can't say I could explain how it effects our winter, so I am simply going on stats here."

nonetheless, one cannot deny the statistics

[Joe Vanni]

QBO down slightly to -3.05

[WVclimo]

I also have limited understanding of the index. But I thought that the best readings were ones that didn't go too strongly in either direction. +5 to -5 was the range of the oscillation we wanted winter to time with. Maybe I misremembered my reading of Tolleris.