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Hurricane Irene Flooding Threat


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The 12z EURO was pretty intense with the swatch of 2"+ rains.. basically from the GA/SC border to Maine and back to western NY/PA.

If it happens it could be "epic" for some given the seeming slow movement and recent heavy rains especially in parts of the urban corridor. Saving grace might be overall dry conditions from the Mid-Atl south to start?

Until guidance clears up figuring out where the heaviest is/where the cutoff is/etc is a hair-pulling-out event.

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just over 6" for me this month and thats half of what many other areas around Philly are reporting.

I'm at 11 and we pretty much hit flash flooding from the gitgo in yesterdays storms. I am curious if a hydrologist could discuss how quickly the guidance changes over time. For instance, if much of the northeast sees little more this week than a shower Thursday, what will that map look like on Saturday? Big changes?

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I'm going to bribe Wes to post in this thread.

What about? The heavy rain that probably will occur if the storm has an inland track like the models are forecasting. Such a track usually will lead to some type of frontogenesis especially if its along the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. That ceretainly looks like what is happening at 138 hrs.

post-70-0-74051000-1314062003.gif

post-70-0-61107100-1314062033.gif

Such an alignments would be very favorable for very heavy rains if the model forecasts are correct about the storm track and interaction with the westerlies. Of course we're still dealing with a storm that is way out there in time so lots still can change. If we get closer to storm, I may write a short piece for the Capital Weater Gang if it would not be considered poaching into someone elses area of expertise.

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What about?

Bribe might have been the wrong word. I was trying to coax you out to post. ;)

You are the QPF master -- people should worry more about stepping on your toes talking about it. Hopefully there is reason to dust off the keyboard before winter... always a good learning opportunity.

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What about? The heavy rain that probably will occur if the storm has an inland track like the models are forecasting. Such a track usually will lead to some type of frontogenesis especially if its along the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. That ceretainly looks like what is happening at 138 hrs.

Such an alignments would be very favorable for very heavy rains if the model forecasts are correct about the storm track and interaction with the westerlies. Of course we're still dealing with a storm that is way out there in time so lots still can change. If we get closer to storm, I may write a short piece for the Capital Weater Gang if it would not be considered poaching into someone elses area of expertise.

So we pulled you away from that fishing after all, didn't we Wes. I look forward to your analysis.

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Love me some WES posts--
all... just to make sure you recognize, the original map posted here is flash flood guidance...which is an estimate of how much rain is necessary to initiate flooding. my hunch is yhat the red areas are overdone. it has not been that dry here this summer. through the Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center, they produce these maps for 1 hr, 3 hr and 6 hour time periods. Tropical systems are well known to produce flash flooding, sometimes major, if the track of the remnants travel west of I-95 but east of the mountains and produce a strong pslope flow into the mountains. Along the eastern slopes of the Appalachains, this has produced double digit rainfall amounts which eventually makes it way into area creeks and rivers (water runs downhill).
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