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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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GGEM shifted way east and has Irene centered close to or just south of Nantucket Sunday 12Z. But I would not put much weight into GGEM for this storm at this time. It handles tropical systems poorly until they get much further north.

WX/PT

Some reason because what has happen the last 20 years I have strange feeling the east solutions will pan out more but who knows? If I see the western solution with a strong storm on Friday than I will see this be real concern flooding rains and strong winds will be a player. There is just this slight chance this storm could be in between Floyd and Glory. With the GFS and GGEM shifting east I having feeling that this could like I said before another 96 Edward once again.

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I wouldnt really worry about this storm right now. Seriously, it was forecast by NHC to be going over the DR a few day ago and it went right. At the same time, the extended forecast had it over FL in the long range. Look at how far it is to the right of FL now? This thing is trending right and I see no reason why that trend wont cont as it moves N twds our area. The right front quad is where the action is, I see MAYBE only E LI getting into that action, otherwise, just some heavy rain for a 6 hr period, then poof it's gone. Typical trend to the E. I recall when I was forecasting Charlie when I worked at NBC4 back in the day as a wx producer and all the models had it hitting the area. We had a tropical storm warning for the city and we ran crawls on the TV all for nothing. If the models have any kind of E trend...it is death. U want a due N trend, and that is not the deal here. I know the standard error in the NHC track at 5 days is some 250 miles, and that will be in play here. I see this sucker trending E with time so it's a glancing blow to the area, heavy rain yea, but not much else. Just my 2 cents.

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I wouldnt really worry about this storm right now. Seriously, it was forecast by NHC to be going over the DR a few day ago and it went right. At the same time, the extended forecast had it over FL in the long range. Look at how far it is to the right of FL now? This thing is trending right and I see no reason why that trend wont cont as it moves N twds our area. The right front quad is where the action is, I see MAYBE only E LI getting into that action, otherwise, just some heavy rain for a 6 hr period, then poof it's gone. Typical trend to the E. I recall when I was forecasting Charlie when I worked at NBC4 back in the day as a wx producer and all the models had it hitting the area. We had a tropical storm warning for the city and we ran crawls on the TV all for nothing. If the models have any kind of E trend...it is death. U want a due N trend, and that is not the deal here. I know the standard error in the NHC track at 5 days is some 250 miles, and that will be in play here. I see this sucker trending E with time so it's a glancing blow to the area, heavy rain yea, but not much else. Just my 2 cents.

I still feel that its an eastern LI landfall or near miss at best right now. The worse case scenario IMO now is something similar to Bob but I'm not sure Irene will be as strong as Bob was upon reaching 40-42N....there is going to have to be some sort of major intensification soon. Even if it does, the next eyewall cycle likely would begin as its beginning to blast north and it could undergo extensive weakening off the NC/SC coasts before it even reaches cooler waters. I'm still telling most people I know outside of those in SE MA and eastern Suffolk county that I'm not too worried, as long as you're on the west side of these things you usually can get away with just minimal damage though that does not mean a few trees won't wind up on houses west of the center.

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The 5 am advisory has the cyclone just grazing Cape Hatteras and coming ashore on E LI and extreme SE CT/RI. The Day 5 position is over inland RI with winds of 70 kt.

Thats the 00z euro run to a "t"...........which has been shifting east since monday nights 00z

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Just out of curiousity, how many more times are you going to repeat yourself?? I must have seen a dozen posts from you where you basically say the same thing, we get it already, east shift.

If trend continues a big shift to the east like it has been then you could say 100% sure the threat is over. I believe there will be at least some additional shift to east with today. Right now with current trends I believe the only effects we will from Irene like typically is the huge swells, minor coastal flooding/beach erosion . There could be some rain for LI and CT if tracks closer to the coast.

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Just out of curiousity, how many more times are you going to repeat yourself?? I must have seen a dozen posts from you where you basically say the same thing, we get it already, east shift.

I was making point that anymore significant shift to the east today would mean that threat is over for sure. I am talking about not just receiving a direct hit and getting heavy rain and strong winds all together for the entire area including LI.

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06z gfs is a tad further west....brushes outerbanks then goes over Souteast Mass............brushes the twin forks.....

Nyc-down the jersey shore gets 5+ of rain......LI 7-10

The kicker is much weaker though-- this is like watching Boxing Day lol-- let's hope it's the start of a trend and not a 6z/18z data burp lol

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Lol at anyone who is calling this over because of a 120 hour cycle of runs.

That's as bad as saying storm is going to happen because of a 120 hour forecast.

This thread is unreadable.

Half the posts here belong in the banter thread. Read the thread's rules.

A post like "yup, as I thought, it's over, is banter.

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Lol at the idiots who are calling this over because of a 120 hour cycle of runs.

That's as bad as saying storm is going to happen because of a 120 hour forecast.

This thread is unreadable.

Boxing day blizzard, trended west dec 24 which means

nothings set in stone till last minute, people need to atleast wait till friday

Fwiw steve d new map has it cutting across long island looks like central of the island to.

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My point forecast for brooklyn

Saturday Night: Rain and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 77. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy and very windy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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Regardless of what happens, in my lifetime these things have always been a letdown for this area. Floyd was a gust of wind and a bit of rain, it was a joke. That was a Cat 1 directly over NJ. Yes northern NJ got flooding.

I think the worst we've had in this area in the past 20 years was 2003's Isabel. Somehow that slammed into North Carolina and managed to get us up here.

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