HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 CPickles huggin the NAM in Boca Hey, at least it is something to watch. Almost as fun as Tubes vs MRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 That is a joke, of course. I know this from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If you saw a snowstorm for Atlanta, GA on a few day 7 models, what would you think... That is how anomalous this occurrence would be. Pretty much. The pattern is favorable for a potential turn up the coast, but its still in the time range where its laughable to get into specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 At least excited for this, for now though its beautiful outside, gonna go make a day of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Pretty much. The pattern is favorable for a potential turn up the coast, but its still in the time range where its laughable to get into specifics. Yes, but...even a 3% chance is about 2.99 higher than the usual in this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wake me up in 96 hours when we see something like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I know this from you. apparently not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wake me up in 96 years when we see something like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yes, but...even a 3% chance is about 2.99 higher than the usual in this part of the world. True, but it doesn't mean we should go crazy about it. A 3% chances is still a 3% chance. One thing that bothers me is the lack of a pretty deep trough which is what we see most of the time when a storm makes landfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If memory serves me correct, Edouard kind of banged a right when it touched Nantucket and headed out to sea, I was in Chatham and we barely got hurricane force gusts. Noel more or less snuck up on the cape with some decent southerly winds. I was on my boat in Nantucket Harbor with 100mph gusts on my Davis. All from the NE. I wouldn't say it snuck up on us either. It was pretty well progged to do what it did. Perhaps a bit stronger than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not a particularly classic setup for a solid New England threat, and yet it manages to thread the needle. For 5-6 days out, I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I will watch this storm like a hawk, or until our chance returnes to 0%. Could we see this getting near us? Yes, Will it, maybe. Will it hit and how strong will it be, Way to early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 So what exactly are the models picking up on that bring it up here? If the conditions aren't right, what are the models seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 8/27 flight from Phoenix to Logan at 5pm. If this storm happens, good chance my stay out west will last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 True, but it doesn't mean we should go crazy about it. A 3% chances is still a 3% chance. One thing that bothers me is the lack of a pretty deep trough which is what we see most of the time when a storm makes landfall here. Yeah I don't really see the fuss right now until we see a solid trough digging west of us in the Great Lakes. Without that it's going to be really tough (though not impossible) to get something up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Posted some of the big ones on my blog: http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Incoming at hour 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Making a B-Line for SE MA at 156h on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 So what exactly are the models picking up on that bring it up here? If the conditions aren't right, what are the models seeing? My understanding ( limited understanding) is at this time we are not seeing the pattern that would bring Irene as a land fall, it may brush us as a lot of storms do in sne. Also what will Irene be when it is in our neck of the woods, a hurricane, ts, a left over strung out mess? At the moment this could just mean we will see lots of rain on Sunday ish time frame. As the local met on WLNE just said, we may see something from Irene, so keep an eye on the forcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Cue the "its diggier at 500" posts? Holy fook at the gfs.. bullseye 7 days out.. never good.. This is starting to feel like winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 get your spot ready on the beach to watch the clouds off to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 get your spot ready on the beach to watch the clouds off to the east Noel, noel, noel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Cue the "its diggier at 500" posts? Holy fook at the gfs.. bullseye 7 days out.. never good.. This is starting to feel like winter! We wouldn't get much up here anyway outside of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GFS is fun to look at that's for sure. I'm just not sure I buy that kind of track unless we see that s/w not be so progressive... I'd like to see it dig a bit further. Also a blockier pattern with a stronger ridge out across N Atlantic/Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 get your spot ready on the beach to watch the clouds off to the east Lol...knew you'd be in this thread sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The "PRE" starts Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Lol...knew you'd be in this thread sooner or later. the trends arent my friend either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Fish storm FTW. This thing is trending east and fast. Let's all just sit on a beach and wave at her as she passes us by. Georgia to the Cape in a day. Goodnight Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Fish storm FTW. This thing is trending east and fast. Let's all just sit on a beach and wave at her as she passes us by. Georgia to the Cape in a day. Goodnight Irene. LOL its the gfs.. it's 7 days out.. relax.. if it went from GA to cape in a day it can go from cape to Gulf in 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 the trends arent my friend either. Yeah I hear ya. We'll see how it goes...upper levels clearly not settled yet. This is why it was funny to see people claiming a FL hit was nearly a sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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