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Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

weatherman566

By weatherman566,
in Southeastern States

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

So, has anyone looked at the model runs for 97L out in the central Atlantic? It's a long ways away, but I definitely have my eyes on it.

It would be high comedy if this thing never got going. With the amount of people who have been intensely watching it, I'm pulling for a fail....

If we get rain from it great, otherwise I hope the islands in the Caribbean shred it to pieces.

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Wait for the Depression for form and the models might have a fighting chance. Maybe. This 97 not being an entity yet increases model challenges.

Looking at the overall pattern, the door would be somewhat more open for a Southeast landfall in 7-10 days, iff a storm forms. Big upper ridge looks to stretch from Texas into the Southwest, as opposed to Texas into the Southeast. Big ridge defense breaks down in the Southeast. Would still need to avoid a strong trough pulling away any tropical system.

Tropical forecasting is the closest thing to billiard ball meteorology! :D

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toad strangler

toad strangler

Posted
Posted

It would be high comedy if this thing never got going. With the amount of people who have been intensely watching it, I'm pulling for a fail....

If we get rain from it great, otherwise I hope the islands in the Caribbean shred it to pieces.

It would be a major slap at the models if this fizzled. Assuming that a US land fall does happen and it comes at the hand of a near major to major cane I would say the models strike it rich. I mean, when was the last time the entire suite basically has held on to a system for nearly 5 days and so far out?

Very interesting days ahead.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

It would be a major slap at the models if this fizzled. Assuming that a US land fall does happen and it comes at the hand of a near major to major cane I would say the models strike it rich. I mean, when was the last time the entire suite basically has held on to a system for nearly 5 days and so far out?

Very interesting days ahead.

Was wondering the same thing...seems rare.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

12Z ECMWF Ensemble mean is favoring N'awlins. And lookie, valid August 29th too. The date seems to ring a bell....

Glad to have you in the thread Steve. It did not hit me till you mentioned it about that date, ominous stuff right there.... Anywhere but New Orleans, that would be a sick joke even from a weak hurricane.....

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AbsolutZero

AbsolutZero

Posted
Posted

Glad to have you in the thread Steve. It did not hit me till you mentioned it about that date, ominous stuff right there.... Anywhere but New Orleans, that would be a sick joke even from a weak hurricane.....

Thanks, I took the day off for family reasons but I think I look at more weather data at home than at work.

Yea, I definitely agree that its not going to be funny if that solution continues. Right now, I'm enjoying the entertainment value of the Georgia solution from the 12Z models. Imagine the hype this storm will get next week. Models are progging it to be slowly trod west across the Caribbean. Unless some other big story hits the news, this will be the big story. Buy some gas futures now if they haven't started going up already.

:rolleyes:

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

I don't know if any of you are aware by the previous posters, but you need LOTS AND LOTS of salt. Like a metric ton no wait an exaton of salt. I myself will take a little salt to taste with this one, but I'd rather not hear it repeated page after page.

Anyway, almost positive this thing will do something and won't just fizzle out...but a big east coast hit? maybe...a swing and a miss? sure. A gulf hit? maybe...Hispaniola hit? maybe. Die in the Atlantic all alone with no one around? Absolutely not!

Watching the models is all the fun...post away!

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

If it consolidates further north around 14-15 N were the best looking MLC is then perhaps the east coast and the Carolinas are more favored vs the GOM, S Florida, however if this thing were to pop around 12 N then maybe a more southern track is likely. Also a stronger system earlier would tend to MOST LIKELY favor a more poleward track vs a weaker system that has a better chance of staying shallow and headed west. SO if you want to see a hit in the Carolinas hope for a stronger system that forms sooner, most of the models runs taking it to the GOM keep it weak until it gets to the GOM.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

GFDL doesn't want to develop it at all. Then again, when the GFDL and other dynamic hurricane models wanted to develop Emily and the global models said "no", the global models ended up being right. For my part, I'll go with whichever model doesn't show development. Just like Emily, this thing is taking forever to get going and still doesn't look terribly organized (that seems to be the trend this year). I have my doubts as to whether we'll see anything at all, here or anywhere else.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

12z GFS brings 97 L across Eastern Cuba and up the western coastline of Florida...and it is crawling up the coast eventually coming up due noth through Georgia. By next Monday (8/29) surface low located near Charlotte. The really slow movement would favor 6-10 inch rainfall along and east of the track. The position is not ideal for upslope flow along the escarpment but the low track is close enough to provide precip back to the escarpment...Parts of Central and Eastern Carolinas can really use the rain at this point...but the slow motion could be very concerning...the system envelope along with a prolonged fetch off the Atlantic is screaming a large precip shield.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Savannah to Atlanta Day 8...Holy Cow, Lookout has his wish!!!

No doubt. I think he would love this run, as most would since active weather is what this forum is all about. The good news is that GFS and ECMWF have been in the same ball park for a number of days now, and going back to tracking this for (what will end up being) 2 weeks is quite a feat. I've never seen such good agreement this far out. Its still no lock though, really can't say that until is bearing down the day or two before.

So the ECMWF has it coming into Miami and straddling the FL coast to coming inland in southeast GA and really slows around Augusta and lolligags to Athens then opens up and rains out over northern GA and southeast Tennessee. But lookng at its rain amounts, with that track, the southern Apps of Ga , western NC/SC would get much more rain than shown, at that speed and trajectory. Its only showing 5" or less . Easily a track and slowing speed would ring out a foot of rain over the escarpment of the Southeast facing slopes. I'm not sure why the model doesnt show that....as GFS does show orographic enhancement and has its track further west slightly. I'm surprised the models are that close for so far out. Hopefully we can get a real rain maker into the Southeast...I think we'd all like to rake in a lot of rain. Not to mention the storm still has some wind gusts and a fairly deep center, but I imagine a track through the peninsula and southern GA inland would really weaken it bofore it was able to maintain any severe high winds in the Carolinas. Fun to watch it unfold. I'm rooting for a major rain event in most of SC..this is about the only way it can truly happen, with a system coming in from the due south or Southeast coast of GA , heading northwest. Unfortunately that would slam the mountains with flooding rains as well.

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Mencken_Fan

Mencken_Fan

Posted
Posted

Excellent rain potential for those most in need...this could be a very beneficial storm.

No butterflies here on Cape Fear yet....but if I see models trending on the east side of Florida over the next few days I might get a bit queasy.

A Georgia strike would be cool because it's so rare for them. (North Carolina says: "sure bud, we can spare one for ya.")

popcorn.gif

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

EURO would place western NC in the NE quadrant right?

Yes...Western North Carolina would be in the northeast quad of the circulation shortly after it goes inland. Low pressure comes inland near Savannah and then moves over or just east of Atlanta then north towards the GA/TN border.

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