Juliancolton Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The GFS has a US landfall 14 runs in a row. It's kind of hard for a westward moving Atlantic hurricane to completely avoid some part of the US... the only reason we have such consistency on a US landfall is because it's a huge nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wouldn't it be a good trend for the storm to be disrupted so it doesn't turn into something nasty causing damage stateside? you'l get 5 posted for a statement like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The GFS has a US landfall 14 runs in a row. Reminds me of the christmas snow where the models consistently showed it for something like 3 days straight. this bodes well for those of us hoping for a us cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Looks like a major stall over Cuba before the truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Have to say that I'm amazed at the consistency of so many runs in a row taking this right over Hispaniola. In the grand scheme of things, especially many days out, that's not a huge target, yet every run goes right over it. Florida has become a very consistent part of the equation beyond there the last couple of days too. Doesn't mean either is right, but interesting that there is not much budging on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Does it bring wind all the way up 95 to? Some, especially offshore, but that's with the premise on the GFS that it comes off of Hispaniola and Cuba really no worse for the wear. Which is, shall we say, unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Over the past 24 hours I've noticed the GFS has trended to less blocking over New England days 8-11...if you are a fan of a landfalling system that pulls well inland, then you are not a fan of those trends. The result is a storm that tries to make a hard right once it gets into the Eastern GOM. The ridge, shown by the models right now, is strong enough to prevent a full re-curve, cross Florida and out-to-sea solution but currently it shows a system running parallel to the West Coast and then run up into the Big Bend. And as many have posted, its interesting that the GFS shows little change in intensity due to landmasses (Puerto Rico, Hispanola, Cuba)...is that the model being in error or could there be a good enough upper level environment would allow a storm to recover quickly from any land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Have to say that I'm amazed at the consistency of so many runs in a row taking this right over Hispaniola. In the grand scheme of things, especially many days out, that's not a huge target, yet every run goes right over it. Florida has become a very consistent part of the equation beyond there the last couple of days too. Doesn't mean either is right, but interesting that there is not much budging on track. Like you said it's not a huge target, and it would only take about 100 mile deviation to either side of its track to completely miss Hispaniola and/or Cuba. The interesting thing to me is the consistency of the models in showing a favorable pattern for a system and for a potential CONUS landfall. Everything else is details which there's just no way to know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 And as many have posted, its interesting that the GFS shows little change in intensity due to landmasses (Puerto Rico, Hispanola, Cuba)...is that the model being in error or could there be a good enough upper level environment would allow a storm to recover quickly from any land interaction. That's an interesting point - we have certainly seen systems that were in a particularly favorable environment recover more quickly than one might expect after an interaction with Hispaniola. But a lot of that would probably depend also on things completely impossible to forecast right now (e.g., how well developed the inner core is) - particularly considering we don't even have a system yet to be sure there will be one by the time it gets to area in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 CMC has our system missing Hispaniola to the south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble mean is over Western Cuba and into the Central Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves (guilty as charged). Such a broad circulation with dry air issues suggests this is going to be a slow brew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This system looks fruitful Water Vapor image below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z CMC..East Coast of Florida: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves (guilty as charged). Such a broad circulation with dry air issues suggests this is going to be a slow brew. This is more than mere dry air here... This image represents a significant mass of dust particulate (SA) from off the African continent, and a mass that is completely emersing this cyclonic gyre - it is clearly evident/culpable in why better organized centric convection is having trouble gaining a toe-hold. Until this bleeds/desolves out and stops getting ingested, forget it - The upshot here is just as Icebreaker said, it has a broad circulation that actually appears to currently not be driven by sustain thermal engine associated with warm core thermodynamics. In simple terms ... SAL won't disrupt that circulation as it is derived from other fluid mechanics, rather than the typical mass conservation of balancing storm core UVM. There really is no easy way to describe this stuff if you care about precsision... I guess what I am saying is that this rotating mass will probably cut right through the SAL region, and upon clearing west of it, probably we will see deep sustained convection become more convincing at that time. I think the models are doing pretty good so far actually - lots of depiction out there of a non closed "dent" in the trade wind pressure field that doesn't close off until much further west of present longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This is more than mere dry air here... This image represents a significant mass of dust particulate (SA) from off the African continent, and a mass that is completely emersing this cyclonic gyre - it is clearly evident/culpable in why better organized centric convection is having trouble gaining a toe-hold. Until this bleeds/desolves out and stops getting ingested, forget it - The upshot here is just as Icebreaker said, it has a broad circulation that actually appears to currently not be driven by sustain thermal engine associated with warm core thermodynamics. In simple terms ... SAL won't disrupt that circulation as it is derived from other fluid mechanics, rather than the typical mass conservation of balancing storm core UVM. There really is no easy way to describe this stuff if you care about precsision... I guess what I am saying is that this rotating mass will probably cut right through the SAL region, and upon clearing west of it, probably we will see deep sustained convection become more convincing at that time. I think the models are doing pretty good so far actually - lots of depiction out there of a non closed "dent" in the trade wind pressure field that doesn't close off until much further west of present longitude. Yes, it seems unlikely that this will be any kind of cyclone until late weekend/early next week. Like you say, the models seem to be capturing that well, GFS still only has it at 1008 mb with a closed isobar over the Lesser Antilles Sunday morning. Interesting to note though that even the shallow BAM takes the system N of the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It is funny that folks are mentioning such specific landfall points and tracks with a system that 1) doesn't yet have a center and 2) is ten days away. Discussions Re: whether this hits Savannah vs. Miami or Tampa vs. Pensacola suggest a level of accuracy in the models that just isn't there at this range. Like I said yesterday, even predicting a Hispaniola hit right now is nearly impossible, as Hispaniola, though a significant element in the equation, is small. All we know is that the models bring a significant cyclone very far W into the basin, with a possible threat to the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 That is one heck of a reflection from the 12Z GFS Ensemble mean in the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It is funny that folks are mentioning such specific landfall points and tracks with a system that 1) doesn't yet have a center and 2) is ten days away. Discussions Re: whether this hits Savannah vs. Miami or Tampa vs. Pensacola suggest a level of accuracy in the models that just isn't there at this range. Like I said yesterday, even predicting a Hispaniola hit right now is nearly impossible, as Hispaniola, though a significant element in the equation, is small. All we know is that the models bring a significant cyclone very far W into the basin, with a possible threat to the mainland. I think we all realize it's little more than educated speculation at this range, but the only other way to discuss it would be to say that the latest run shows a vague threat to some place that shall go unmentioned. How would that be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think we all realize it's little more than educated speculation at this range, but the only other way to discuss it would be to say that the latest run shows a vague threat to some place that shall go unmentioned. How would that be better? Simple: things like "E Coast of FL", "NE Gulf", "FL/GA". It's actually more accurate in this case to use less specific language, because the more specific you get, the more false the prediction. Listen, if you want to give exact street addresses of landfall points for an open wave ten days out, be my guest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Simple: things like "E Coast of FL", "NE Gulf", "FL/GA". It's actually more accurate in this case to use less specific language, because the more specific you get, the more false the prediction. Listen, if you want to give exact street addresses of landfall points for an open wave ten days out, be my guest. I wouldn't mind an exact street address if that constitutes full disclosure of the data in hand, whatever its reliability, which I can allow for. I know just how a Tampa street address relates to U.S. geography and I can do my own cog-turning. But vagueness makes me break out in zits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I wouldn't mind an exact street address if that constitutes full disclosure of the data in hand, whatever its reliability, which I can allow for. I know just how a Tampa street address relates to U.S. geography and I can do my own cog-turning. But vagueness makes me break out in zits. Actually, suggesting FL/GA as a landfall zone with an open wave ten days out is not vague-- it is extremely specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12Z Euro is back to plunging 97L into Hispaniola after taking it just to the north with the 00Z run. I'm really interested in this 00Z north/right, 12Z south/left issue that the Euro seems to be having with this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 GFS spaghettios have something for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12Z Euro is back to plunging 97L into Hispaniola after taking it just to the north with the 00Z run. I'm really interested in this 00Z north/right, 12Z south/left issue that the Euro seems to be having with this system... But is that really such a significant shift at this range? It seems important to us because of the Shredderola factor, but it's a pretty small shift for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 But is that really such a significant shift at this range? It seems important to us because of the Shredderola factor, but it's a pretty small shift for this range. Well keep in mind that Hispaniola is now coming within 5 days of the storm, so it's beginning to be more significant.... but to me, I'm not focusing on Hispaniola so much with this shift, but rather the overall pattern- Why does the 00Z Euro keep showing a weaker high, and the 12Z Euro keep showing a stronger high? This is the big question coming out of this considering this trend is now in its third consecutive day of occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Actually, suggesting FL/GA as a landfall zone with an open wave ten days out is not vague-- it is extremely specific. You may get your Caribbean Cruising Corpus Christi Crusher after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Well keep in mind that Hispaniola is now coming within 5 days of the storm, so it's beginning to be more significant.... but to me, I'm not focusing on Hispaniola so much with this shift, but rather the overall pattern- Why does the 00Z Euro keep showing a weaker high, and the 12Z Euro keep showing a stronger high? This is the big question coming out of this considering this trend is now in its third consecutive day of occurrence. Gotcha. Even for five days out, wouldn't that shift-- and the changing strength of the ridge-- fall within the normal model "windshield-wiping"? It seems that if the model is suggesting Hispaniola or just N on successive runs, it's really settling on a solution. What did yesterday's 12Z show? Refresh my memory. (Was it even showing this system then?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z Euro interesting... Stays weak for awhile and issues with Hispaniola, but really going to town SOUTH of Cuba at 168 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 You may get your Caribbean Cruising Corpus Christi Crusher after all. Well, of course the more S/W solution is going to be more interesting to me-- but not to most of the folks in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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