Quakertown needs snow Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Just an FYI. http://www.accuweath...of-20112012.asp Snow Forecast for the Winter of 2011-2012 Aug 9, 2011; 8:58 AM ET Discussion I am going to try to keep this simple since it's a prelim forecast for the winter and will be updated in October and December. The basis of the forecast is on the prediction that a weak La Nina will be forming this fall and continuing through the winter. Last year, we had a strong La Nina with blocking over Greenland that lead to a very snowy winter across the Midwest and Northeast. While the pattern will be similar to last year, there will be changes in the pattern that will lead to the heavy snow areas shown on the map. I am not convinced that blocking will be prevalent across Greenland this winter, however, with the trough axis predicted to be in the Midwest, that will lead to storms developing along the East coast and racing northeast. The cold will be back in the Appalachians, and that will lead to heavy snow in that area. The major cities will probably be fighting many mix precip storms with the snow lovers along the I-95 corridor pulling their hair over heavy snow versus ice and rain. A storm track coming out of the Rockies will lead to storms moving through the western Great Lakes and a band of above-normal snowfall across the Midwest and western Great Lakes. I also went with an above-normal snow area along the Front Range of the Rockies due mainly to arctic air masses coming down from Alberta. While overall, the winter will not be extremely cold for the country, it will be cold enough for ice concerns for areas from Oklahoma to North Carolina. Fronts may have a hard time making progress into the South simply due to this summer's heat dome hanging in across parts of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. The good news for that area, while above-normal temps will continue, we should see storms cutting through the southern Plains that will lead to much needed rainfall after a summer of extreme drought conditions. The mountains in the West should see the normal amount of snow and not the extreme snow that fell last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 The major cities will probably be fighting many mix precip storms with the snow lovers along the I-95 corridor pulling their hair over heavy snow versus ice and rain. Sun rises in the east... Pope Catholic... etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 I haven't read HenryM or accuweather at all for maybe 2 yrs now, but I clearly remember his PA bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 I haven't read HenryM or accuweather at all for maybe 2 yrs now, but I clearly remember his PA bias. And now we can see it. LOL. Seems to me a lot of the reasoning's into some prelim forecasts are the same ones that were shot down last winter...but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 So I should invest in a new bottle of sun tan lotion then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 And now we can see it. LOL. Seems to me a lot of the reasoning's into some prelim forecasts are the same ones that were shot down last winter...but what do I know. I mean its not like I'm an expert or anything, but if he is convinced the -NAO regime will not prevail this winter, even with the correlation between summer season NAO, the -QBO, low solar geomagnetic flux, and a neutral N-Atl, I'm not sure I understand his reasoning. I remember watching the planetary waves surfacing in the same regions last yr, the Sudded SW events went on and on for the 1st 1/2 of the winter season, and despite the +QBO regime/westerly shear in the upper regions, a heavy +I/O, And the strong MEI La Nina, the -NAO dominated for the 1st 1/2 of the season, and that alone was impressive and unexpected. I've had issues with analogs from the 1950's for many reasons as well...not that it matters, but I'm not sure why they are used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 HM's forecasts tend to make me raise an eyebrow, but I spoke with him in person this summer, and his opinions and knowledge on historical events and overarching phenomena are quite extensive and interesting. I guess I have mixed opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 I mean its not like I'm an expert or anything, but if he is convinced the -NAO regime will not prevail this winter, even with the correlation between summer season NAO, the -QBO, low solar geomagnetic flux, and a neutral N-Atl, I'm not sure I understand his reasoning. I remember watching the planetary waves surfacing in the same regions last yr, the Sudded SW events went on and on for the 1st 1/2 of the winter season, and despite the +QBO regime/westerly shear in the upper regions, a heavy +I/O, And the strong MEI La Nina, the -NAO dominated for the 1st 1/2 of the season, and that alone was impressive and unexpected. I've had issues with analogs from the 1950's for many reasons as well...not that it matters, but I'm not sure why they are used. Bingo, bango! When I read that, both times, I didn't get much of an explanation, other than he thinks that there wont be much of a -NAO this winter. I think that if a "big time" weather company is going to start putting out prelim forecasts, then they should explain the reasoning a little more behind their thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 HM's forecasts tend to make me raise an eyebrow, but I spoke with him in person this summer, and his opinions and knowledge on historical events and overarching phenomena are quite extensive and interesting. I guess I have mixed opinions. There is no way I have nearly as much knowledge on how to to forecast as the proffessionals in the field do, that is simple fact, I am simply stating what I do not know...not what I think, because I do not know what to think. I have a brother with a simple BS in atmospheric science and he blows me away in knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 NC High Country: Snow HEAVY ALL the Time: √ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Henry M hasn't got a forecast right 4-6 hours out in time. Why would anyone think he would get a 4-6 month forecast right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Henry M hasn't got a forecast right 4-6 hours out in time. Why would anyone think he would get a 4-6 month forecast right? Well stated. Anyway, he is there severe weather "expert", not the long-range expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 I saw it. As I stated, I fail to see his reasoning behind the his "lack of cold/no greenland block idea" for this Winter. I respectfully disagree with him given the teleconnections and were they appear to be heading. Plus, I also noticed state college is in the bullseye like always with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 this is awful he is awful i dislike people who say "its going to be colder this year with alot of snow for central PA" lol and we should believe you why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Well stated. Anyway, he is there severe weather "expert", not the long-range expert. He tweeted this picture and said "Cool picture of the tornado that hit Wilmington, DE this afternoon." There is no visible tornado in that pic... I would hardly consider him to be a severe weather expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 He tweeted this picture and said "Cool picture of the tornado that hit Wilmington, DE this afternoon." There is no visible tornado in that pic... I would hardly consider him to be a severe weather expert. Wow. Even I can tell the difference....and I just noticed my grammar mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Winter cancel for the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Uh that looks like a typical mod Nina... Not buying the whole "no blocking" idea... lots of signs point toward a -ao -NAO and --epo... last winter almost everything was pointed against blocking and look what happened... It's no secret something changed in 2008 or 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 What a lazy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Winter cancel for the I-95 corridor Gosh Darn it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 He says the mountains in the west should see normal snowfall, but he has Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana in above normal snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I haven't read HenryM or accuweather at all for maybe 2 yrs now, but I clearly remember his PA bias. Yeah I noted the exact same thing on the Central/Western section when it was posted on there. Its pretty obvious his bias, just like last winter every storm was heading toward Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 lol... when doesn't a winter forecast from accuweather show heavy snow in the northeast? If I was trying to make money from website traffic, that's what I would show EVERY year too! Why would a website Met show warm and rainy for a winter forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 lol... when doesn't a winter forecast from accuweather show heavy snow in the northeast? If I was trying to make money from website traffic, that's what I would show EVERY year too! Why would a website Met show warm and rainy for a winter forecast? That was Henry's own personal thoughts and not AccuWeather's. The official AccuWeather outlook will come from Paul Pastelok, the person that took over when JB left. Not sure when that will be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Everyone is jealous of the epic winter I will have, while you I-95 people will become my signature by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Guess I'm going to get loads of sleep this winter. ^^ *shrugs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I dunno, I think his call for New Orleans and Mobile might be a little too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 does anybody here subscribe to weatherbell? What's JBs initial call for this upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I remember when I used to read his updates and forecasts all the time and took them like gospel. Then I discovered this forum and found where the real experts are. He didn't even show any reasoning or analysis backing up his forecasts, and unless he does, he can't expect people to take him too seriously. As everyone always says, if Henry M gives a non-snowy forecast, then we better get the snow shovels ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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