Drz1111 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Even if a TC forms, isn't it a King Ranch special regardless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 5:59 PM, Drz1111 said: Even if a TC forms, isn't it a King Ranch special regardless? Are you basing this on the HWRF model above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Extreme NE MX to TX/LA are still within my cone, FWIW... 12z Euro says MX/TX border, 12z GFS says Freeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Take a look at the recent rapid scan...it looks like a LLC has formed (quite strong as well ) to the SW of the Isle of Youth. You can see it very briefly when the old convection died out and before the new storms fired over it. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 MW still doesn't show an LLC, but there's a non-"land shadow" dark spot to the SE of the Isle of Youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:25 PM, wxmx said: MW still doesn't show an LLC, but there's a non-"land shadow" dark spot to the SE of the Isle of Youth. Yeah, I've been staring at that for like 10 min... it almost looks like there are three parallel arcs, but that's not a "normal" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:26 PM, am19psu said: Yeah, I've been staring at that for like 10 min... it almost looks like there are three parallel arcs, but that's not a "normal" pattern. That threw me off as well... at least partially could be attributed to the satellite sweep direction, but that three arcs are rather well defined...not sure if anything can be concluded from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:30 PM, wxmx said: That threw me off as well... at least partially could be attributed to the satellite sweep direction, but that three arcs are rather well defined...not sure if anything can be concluded from that. Yea I think its just the satellite sweet direction that is causing the arcing pattern. We will probably be able to discern a lot more from the Cuban radar than this most recent TRMM pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Different from where most think it is... AL, 90, 2011072618, , BEST, 0, 209N, 837W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:39 PM, phil882 said: Yea I think its just the satellite sweet direction that is causing the arcing pattern. We will probably be able to discern a lot more from the Cuban radar than this most recent TRMM pass. I'm not sure... you can see the same pattern in the visible satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 HPC discussion suggests their positioning/forecast of 90L is a product of the NHC forecast. Quote THE POSITION OF ALL TROPICALFEATURES WAS COORDINATED WITH NHC AT 17Z/1 PM EDT. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NHC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CUBA. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:42 PM, Ed Mahmoud said: HPC discussion suggests their positioning/forecast of 90L is a product of the NHC forecast. Looks a lot like my forecast with it being a TS at landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:41 PM, am19psu said: I'm not sure... you can see the same pattern in the visible satellite Well...then maybe it's farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 850 vort is up quite a bit... Shear looks favorable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 5:42 PM, Superstorm93 said: For giggles... You can always count on the HWRF to make one of the most unrealistic scenarios that there could possibly be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:45 PM, Superstorm93 said: 850 vort is up quite a bit... And is better vertically aligned ... there's some wrly shear, hence the convection being mostly on the east side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I still think the LLC is forming to the SW of the Isle of Youth http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 90L has some Low Level Convergence associated with it... Upper Level Divergence looks good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:47 PM, Snowlover123 said: You can always count on the HWRF to make one of the most unrealistic scenarios that there could possibly be. Can I repost this in 3 days?? HWRF has made some pretty big improvements in the last couple years. It has toned WAY down on it's supercane progs. That said, I made my forecast BEFORE this run came out, so I'm a bit biased that a model followed my thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 6:41 PM, am19psu said: I'm not sure... you can see the same pattern in the visible satellite SSMIS pass also went through about 30 minutes previous to the TRMM pass and it also shows some arcing bands in the low levels with some sort of axis around 21N 83W. Looks like its organizing nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Convection near the presumed "center" has really fired in the last 40 minutes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 18z HWRF peaks at 64 knots. 18z guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Cory and I are testing the BASTARD/Kestrel setup right now! So, what's the story? Where's it going and how strong? We want the definitive forecast, please. P.S. Lake Effect King's is kinda hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 For those who may be interested, 90L and Pre-Dolly 2008 were in a similar position, but conditions looked better for Dolly. Obviously, convection was much more solid for Dolly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 ML dry air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The master has spoken.. Quote Wxrisk.com*** ALERT *** ALERT ** 1st serious/ significant TC (tropical cylcone) US THREAT of the season for western Gulf central/ TX Gulf coast from system 90L. See web site after 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 On 7/26/2011 at 7:42 PM, flwxwatcher45 said: The master has spoken.. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/21896-90l/page__view__findpost__p__836745 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 This will probably be declared a TD when recon investigates the system tomorrow.... we'll also probably see a cherry from the NHC at 8 PM. This is definitely starting to look solid... the interaction between it and the TUTT should be minimal, IMO, as long as the TUTT continues to retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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