GaWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Invest 97-L has little time to develop before moving inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 My forecast: this will be a short thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 My forecast: this will be a short thread. It'd have been nice if this could have been Bret. I know, not going to happen. I want our first big US potential threat to be Cindy. I've had two girlfriends named Cindy. Home made NASA loop might be showing an outflow boundary pushing out East of 97L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It's on the threshold but the brisk forward motion likely won't give it enough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoorBert Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It'd have been nice if this could have been Bret. I know, not going to happen. I want our first big US potential threat to be Cindy. I've had two girlfriends named Cindy. Home made NASA loop might be showing an outflow boundary pushing out East of 97L I had one - she ended up trashing my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Eyeballing satellite loops, looks like it landfalls in next hour or so near/just North of 20º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 This is arguably a TD/TS. MW looks decent, and visible shows a vigorous LLC. It's just south of 20N and about to LF in the next 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I think there's a good chance this will be declared a short-lived TD in the NHC post-season reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It's probably landfalling right now. The Alvarado radar hasn't updated in the last 2 hours... good timing... it was showing vestiges of a southern eyewall, which are confirmed by the latest low res AMSUB MW. There's little data, and ASCAT will probably miss the W part of the circulation. The TWO is about to be updated in the next 15-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I guess that's that. 1. SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COASTVERY NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND...IT NOW HASA LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 This will almost certainly be reanalyzed as either a strong depression or minimal storm after the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Nice. A 10-post invest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 This will almost certainly be reanalyzed as either a strong depression or minimal storm after the season. Yeah, probably. Veracruz reported light WNW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 heartbroken that i missed LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Deja Vu... just not as much time over water to really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I guess that's that. 1. SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COASTVERY NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND...IT NOW HASA LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. ...or not? Visible loop suggests it's further north/east and over water, with a distinct LLC, but partially exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I gotta say, this definitely passes the eye test as a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 ...or not? Visible loop suggests it's further north/east and over water, with a distinct LLC, but partially exposed. lol 5 more minutes of life. Looks pretty sheared, with the mid level low further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I gotta say, this definitely passes the eye test as a TD. Agreed... lol 5 more minutes of life. Looks pretty sheared, with the mid level low further west ...and agreed... it probably has 3-4 more hours, thanks to the shape of the coast line, and there's some new convection blowing on the west side... at least there's a chance for an official designation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Just received word from a friend at the NHC right now that they had a special advisory written and ready to issue to declare it TD 2 but held back when it made landfall quicker than expected. No way to verify this, just thought it'd be interesting to throw out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Just received word from a friend at the NHC right now that they had a special advisory written and ready to issue to declare it TD 2 but held back when it made landfall quicker than expected. No way to verify this, just thought it'd be interesting to throw out there. Could be they held back becuse of landfall or this might have been an offical depression, but as you said its unofficial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I just got a Special TWO email about a new Invest... oh wait.. darn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Was nice while it las Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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