SNE Hurricane Thread

[CoastalWx]

Yeah but other utilities and contractors help out with the relief efforts too.. the longest time people were out was around 2 weeks.. that's probably reasonable for a hurricane.. longer than that is unacceptable for a utility IMO

It also helps when a hurricane can forecasted to hit

3-4 DAYS out.. when icestorms are only like a day forecasted out..

Crews can be mobilized better

But you're talking millions of people affected. You have to have these crews mobilized away from the storm when it hits, but afterwards...think about how long it could take to clear the roads as they try to get back in? Not only that...the resources would be spread out among New England, Long Island, and possible parts of the Mid Atlantic. Just talk to Entergy about how long people were out after Katrina.

[CT Rain]

hvy hvy ginx.

Could you imagine his outrage in posts following the hurricane. Not sure to whom it would be directed but there would be outrage.

[CoastalWx]

Could you imagine his outrage in posts following the hurricane. Not sure to whom it would be directed but there would be outrage.

He would be sandbagging the Pawcatuck, as trees snap all around him.

Must save the abandon colonial mills!!!

[Mr Torchey]

I think hugo had a 20 foot storm surge into bulls bay, what is the highest storm surge recorded on the south coast of new england?

[CT Rain]

But you're talking millions of people affected. You have to have these crews mobilized away from the storm when it hits, but afterwards...think about how long it could take to clear the roads as they try to get back in? Not only that...the resources would be spread out among New England, Long Island, and possible parts of the Mid Atlantic. Just talk to Entergy about how long people were out after Katrina.

Yeah and this would be worse.

Power crews wouldn't be able to reach whole areas for 7-10 days before roads get cleared enough to let them through. Then you're struggling for supplies and manpower with utilities from Quebec to North Carolina. Mutual aid will be spread exceptionally thin.

Utilities have taken a huge huge gamble that something like this won't occur for a while. They have virtually no preparation for a cat 3 hurricane following a 1938 track.

[CT Rain]

He would be sandbagging the Pawcatuck, as trees snap all around him.

Must save the abandon colonial mills!!!

He is plugged in to emergency management... he'll be on top of things!

[Tropopause_Fold]

Could you imagine his outrage in posts following the hurricane. Not sure to whom it would be directed but there would be outrage.

fema, nws, noaa, nhc, riema, al-qaeda, the taliban. sandbags everywhere.

[Damage In Tolland]

Could you imagine his outrage in posts following the hurricane. Not sure to whom it would be directed but there would be outrage.

I doubt most of us would be able to post for weeks or months.

[CoastalWx]

I doubt most of us would be able to post for weeks or months.

Just think about how dangerous it would be with all the acorns filling the air like buckshot.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I doubt most of us would be able to post for weeks or months.

yeah that's the big downside. it's crazy but i don't even think a tree hitting my house bothers me as much as not having power and internet for weeks. i can deal with aggravating insurance claims, lazy contractors etc. but no access to the outside world would get old really fast.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just think about how dangerous it would be with all the acorns filling the air like buckshot.

LOL....It's always fun and games till someone loses an eye

[OSUmetstud]

I think hugo had a 20 foot storm surge into bulls bay, what is the highest storm surge recorded on the south coast of new england?

21 ft in Buzzard's Bay in the Great New England Hurricane of 1635.

This was from the SLOSH model though...so it's possible it was actually different.

[Damage In Tolland]

yeah that's the big downside. it's crazy but i don't even think a tree hitting my house bothers me as much as not having power and internet for weeks. i can deal with aggravating insurance claims, lazy contractors etc. but no access to the outside world would get old really fast.

Plus cell towers would all be destroyed so no cell phones..It would be like living in Pre-historic times...I wouldn't be surprised if we saw dinosaurs and Wooly mammoths roaming around

[snowNH]

Yeah and this would be worse.

Power crews wouldn't be able to reach whole areas for 7-10 days before roads get cleared enough to let them through. Then you're struggling for supplies and manpower with utilities from Quebec to North Carolina. Mutual aid will be spread exceptionally thin.

Utilities have taken a huge huge gamble that something like this won't occur for a while. They have virtually no preparation for a cat 3 hurricane following a 1938 track.

No doubt. Obviously utilities in new England take a gamble to hurricanes they aren't gonna design 115 kv lines to 200mph winds.. they design transmission lines to 110 MPH including back in the 70s which most were built.

All I'm saying.. the entire city of Boston wouldn't be out of power for 3 weeks with no business being done.. although that'd be awesome.. I'm saying most wind damage will be in CT MA and RI with less in NNE..

[Tropopause_Fold]

Plus cell towers would all be destroyed so no cell phones..It would be like living in Pre-historic times...I wouldn't be surprised if we saw dinosaurs and Wooly mammoths roaming around

do you have a home phone?

[CoastalWx]

No doubt. Obviously utilities in new England take a gamble to hurricanes they aren't gonna design 115 kv lines to 200mph winds.. they design transmission lines to 110 MPH including back in the 70s which most were built.

All I'm saying.. the entire city of Boston wouldn't be out of power for 3 weeks with no business being done.. although that'd be awesome.. I'm saying most wind damage will be in CT MA and RI with less in NNE..

Well yeah obviously populated areas are done first. All we were saying is that some might be out for weeks or more.

[snowNH]

Plus cell towers would all be destroyed so no cell phones..It would be like living in Pre-historic times...I wouldn't be surprised if we saw dinosaurs and Wooly mammoths roaming around

Lol.. lattice steel cell towers would not be destroyed unless a wooly mammoth falls from the sky and lands on it

[Damage In Tolland]

do you have a home phone?

Yeah we have a land line also.. and a well..no bathing..so flesh eating diseases would rapidly spread thruout the area.

Toilets wouldn't flush..so raw sewage issues

[Ed Lizard]

Databuoys off Montalk and Islip are about 22 and 23ºC, respectively, and its early July.

Now I don't know how 'pure' your potential tropical cyclone would be, whether it was in extra-tropical transition, most of the rain West of the center, most of the wind East, but I'd like to think low to mid 20s air temps and SSTs would at least mean stronger winds aloft would be able to efficiently mix down.

Perhaps I should dig up the PNS from one of the Ohio NWS offices about inland and extra-tropical Ike. There was major fun and excitement with that storm, which had completed ET transition, unlike a possible SNE hurricane.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah we have a land line also.. and a well..no bathing..so flesh eating diseases would rapidly spread thruout the area.

Toilets wouldn't flush..so raw sewage issues

[Ed Lizard]

do you have a home phone?

I had cell service when I didn't have phone or electricity, or potable water, after a freak storm in 2008.

I don't know if they have battery backup or solar cells or what, the cell network seems pretty hardy.

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah we have a land line also.. and a well..no bathing..so flesh eating diseases would rapidly spread thruout the area.

Toilets wouldn't flush..so raw sewage issues

[CoastalWx]

Databuoys off Montalk and Islip are about 22 and 23ºC, respectively, and its early July.

Now I don't know how 'pure' your potential tropical cyclone would be, whether it was in extra-tropical transition, most of the rain West of the center, most of the wind East, but I'd like to think low to mid 20s air temps and SSTs would at least mean stronger winds aloft would be able to efficiently mix down.

Perhaps I should dig up the PNS from one of the Ohio NWS offices about inland and extra-tropical Ike. There was major fun and excitement with that storm, which had completed ET transition, unlike a possible SNE hurricane.

But that occurred with sunshine helping to mix down strong winds aloft. There is always an inversion present on the east side of SNE 'canes, but yeah you can get strong winds to mix down. These winds are literally just off the deck.

[OSUmetstud]

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL..Margusity would be coming out with a new revision of the Bible

[HurricaneJosh]

Here is the list of New England/NY hurricane landfalls from HRD/AOML

Sep 1858 Cat 1

Sep 1869 Cat 3

Aug 1893 Cat 1

Sep 1896 Cat 1

Jul 1916 Cat 1

Sep 1938 Cat 3

Aug 1954 Cat 3

Sep 1954 Cat 3

Sep 1960 Cat 2

Jul 1972 Cat 1

Sep 1985 Cat 3

Aug 1991 Cat 2

4 of the 5 majors affected New England in September

7 of the 12 hurricanes affected New England in September

Gloria is still listed as a major in this list, but as most know, it is likely that it wasn't a major when it made landfall in Long Island.

Hey, guys! Just thought I'd say hey and comment Re: this.

Reanalysis has gotten up to 1930-- however, some of the major Northeast USA 'canes have been reanalyzed in papers by Landsea and friends-- the folks leading the research effort-- and their conclusions heavily influence the reanalysis verdicts.

Here are their findings Re: the important Northeast USA 'canes-- which can all be found in this paper: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurricanes.pdf. I want to reemphasize that these findings are not yet official-- the best-track committee doesn't always agree with the researchers-- but these findings give you a good idea of where the discussion is heading:

"Long Island Express" 1938

This one holds up as a Cat 3 for NY, CT, and RI, but is downgraded to Cat 2 for MA. (Clearly that silly Blue Hill reading isn't seen as representative of the cyclone's intensity.) Landfall intensity in NY is 105 kt, in CT/RI 100 kt.

"Great Atlantic Hurricane" 1944

I was surprised this was left off the list! Researchers consider it a strong Cat 2 (95 kt) for NY and RI, with Cat-1 impacts in CT and MA.

Carol 1954

This one holds up as a Cat 3 for NY and RI, with estimated winds of 100 kt. The CT impact is downgraded to Cat 2, and a Cat-2 impact is added for MA.

Edna 1954

Here's another that apparently holds up as a Cat 3 (105 kt) for E MA. Cat-1 impacts are added for NY and RI. The ME impact is downgraded to TS.

Donna 1960

Major downgrade here. The recommendation is Cat 2 for NY (85 kt) and Cat 1 for CT/RI.

Gloria 1985

Major downgrade here. The recommendation is Cat 1 for NY and most of New England. (Landfall intensity in NY was ~75 kt.)

I haven't seen papers on any 'canes since then, but expect Belle 1976 to stay Cat 1 for NY and Bob 1991 to stay Cat 2 for RI/MA (although I'm not sure how they'll assess impacts in NY/CT-- maybe Cat 1.)

P.S. No hurricane hit the Northeast USA in 1972-- that listing is a mistake that's been on the list for years. Agnes was only a 'cane in FL.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Hey, guys! Just thought I'd say hey and comment Re: this.

Reanalysis has gotten up to 1930-- however, some of the major Northeast USA 'canes have been reanalyzed in papers by Landsea and friends-- the folks leading the research effort-- and their conclusions heavily influence the reanalysis verdicts.

Here are their findings Re: the important Northeast USA 'canes-- which can all be found in this paper: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurricanes.pdf. I want to reemphasize that these findings are not yet official-- the best-track committee doesn't always agree with the researchers-- but these findings give you a good idea of where the discussion is heading:

"Long Island Express" 1938

This one holds up as a Cat 3 for NY, CT, and RI, but is downgraded to Cat 2 for MA. (Clearly that silly Blue Hill reading isn't seen as representative of the cyclone's intensity.) Landfall intensity in NY is 105 kt, in CT/RI 100 k.

"Great Atlantic Hurricane" 1944

I was surprised this was left off the list! Researchers consider it a strong Cat 2 (95 kt) for NY and RI, with Cat-1 impacts in CT and MA.

Carol 1954

This one holds up as a Cat 3 for NY and RI, with estimated winds of 100 kt. The CT impact is downgraded to Cat 2, and a Cat-2 impact is added for MA.

Edna 1954

Here's another that apparently holds up as a Cat 3 (105 kt) for E MA. Cat-1 impacts are added for NY and RI. The ME impact is downgraded to TS.

Donna 1960

Major downgrade here. The recommendation is Cat 2 for NY (85 kt) and Cat 1 for CT/RI.

Gloria 1985

Major downgrade here. The recommendation is Cat 1 for NY and most of New England. (Landfall intensity in NY was ~75 kt.)

I haven't seen papers on any 'canes since then, but expect Belle 1976 to stay Cat 1 for NY and Bob 1991 to stay Cat 2 for RI/MA.

P.S. No hurricane hit the Northeast USA in 1972-- that listing is a mistake that's been on the list for years. Agnes was only a 'cane in FL.

good info. thx.

[Ed Lizard]

Toilets not flushing is why, separate from cases and cases of bottled water, one fills the bathtubs and empty gallon plastic water and milk jugs with tap water before the storm. Yellow, let it mellow, brown, flush it down.

BTW, Mexican votive candles, sold at most of the super markets like Fiesta that cater to the Mexican or Mexican-American shopper, are somewhat safer than regular candles for a bathroom night light.

My personal favorite, and there is plenty of wax and multiple candles left from last time, San Judas Tadeo, or St. Jude, of the children's hospital fame. As a Catholic (I have dead relatives who lived in South Boston, and would go to Sacred Heart in North Quincy when visiting my grandmother), I have asked San Judas to offer prayers to Jesus for difficult causes. Oh, bonus, back in the day, his name was 'Yehuda'...

Off to look for "Ike" PNS from one of the Ohio NWS offices...

[OSUmetstud]

Hey, guys! Just thought I'd say hey and comment Re: this.

Reanalysis has gotten up to 1930-- however, some of the major Northeast USA 'canes have been reanalyzed in papers by Landsea and friends-- the folks leading the research effort-- and their conclusions heavily influence the reanalysis verdicts.

Here are their findings Re: the important Northeast USA 'canes-- which can all be found in this paper: http://www.aoml.noaa..._hurricanes.pdf. I want to reemphasize that these findings are not yet official-- the best-track committee doesn't always agree with the researchers-- but these findings give you a good idea of where the discussion is heading:

"Long Island Express" 1938

This one holds up as a Cat 3 for NY, CT, and RI, but is downgraded to Cat 2 for MA. (Clearly that silly Blue Hill reading isn't seen as representative of the cyclone's intensity.) Landfall intensity in NY is 105 kt, in CT/RI 100 k.

"Great Atlantic Hurricane" 1944

I was surprised this was left off the list! Researchers consider it a strong Cat 2 (95 kt) for NY and RI, with Cat-1 impacts in CT and MA.

Carol 1954

This one holds up as a Cat 3 for NY and RI, with estimated winds of 100 kt. The CT impact is downgraded to Cat 2, and a Cat-2 impact is added for MA.

Edna 1954

Here's another that apparently holds up as a Cat 3 (105 kt) for E MA. Cat-1 impacts are added for NY and RI. The ME impact is downgraded to TS.

Donna 1960

Major downgrade here. The recommendation is Cat 2 for NY (85 kt) and Cat 1 for CT/RI.

Gloria 1985

Major downgrade here. The recommendation is Cat 1 for NY and most of New England. (Landfall intensity in NY was ~75 kt.)

I haven't seen papers on any 'canes since then, but expect Belle 1976 to stay Cat 1 for NY and Bob 1991 to stay Cat 2 for RI/MA (although I'm not sure how they'll assess impacts in NY/CT-- maybe Cat 1.)

P.S. No hurricane hit the Northeast USA in 1972-- that listing is a mistake that's been on the list for years. Agnes was only a 'cane in FL.

Thanks for the corrections Josh....i simply missed that when going through the list.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Toilets not flushing is why, separate from cases and cases of bottled water, one fills the bathtubs and empty gallon plastic water and milk jugs with tap water before the storm. Yellow, let it mellow, brown, flush it down.

BTW, Mexican votive candles, sold at most of the super markets like Fiesta that cater to the Mexican or Mexican-American shopper, are somewhat safer than regular candles for a bathroom night light.

My personal favorite, and there is plenty of wax and multiple candles left from last time, San Judas Tadeo, or St. Jude, of the children's hospital fame. As a Catholic (I have dead relatives who lived in South Boston, and would go to Sacred Heart in North Quincy when visiting my grandmother), I have asked San Judas to offer prayers to Jesus for difficult causes. Oh, bonus, back in the day, his name was 'Yehuda'...

Off to look for "Ike" PNS from one of the Ohio NWS offices...

this is an unusual post.