bluewave Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 The last several years we have seen this type of blocking pattern during the summer. I used the last two Junes as a comparison to this one. June 2011 June 2010 June 2009 Even going back to 2006,we have seen blocking patterns during the summer months. The last two winters with record blocking followed blocking during the preceding Octobers. October 2010 October 2009 We saw blocking develop during the late summer in 2006.The blocking was present in following October and February. The current forecast continues the blocking pattern that we have see so far this summer. Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Big winter incoming with fresh volcanic ash, blocking, weak nina or maybe cross fingers weak nino, and sleeping sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 What does this mean for the summer though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 What does this mean for the summer though? i think it might have more effect on the winter than in the summer. The last 2 summers were both extremes. 2009 was cool, while 2010 was hot. So i doubt the NAO has much effect on us in the summer than in the winter. But thats not the point whether its solar related or just a decadal pattern, the -NAO has been beasting in the past few years as noted by bluewave. If it continues we can expect another snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 i think it might have more effect on the winter than in the summer. The last 2 summers were both extremes. 2009 was cool, while 2010 was hot. So i doubt the NAO has much effect on us in the summer than in the winter. But thats not the point whether its solar related or just a decadal pattern, the -NAO has been beasting in the past few years as noted by bluewave. If it continues we can expect another snowy winter. Yup, basically, a -NAO is good for heat south of Jersey and a -NAO means cooler than normal up in new england-- it basically means equal chances for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Yup, basically, a -NAO is good for heat south of Jersey and a -NAO means cooler than normal up in new england-- it basically means equal chances for us Kinda the opposite of what it means in the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 The positive 500 mb height anomaly over the arctic the next few days is forecast to come in a bit greater than during early July 2009. 7/3/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Big winter incoming. Long duration too. My early predictions are Dec -1, January +.5, Feb -2, March -1.5 Precip will be above normal Dec, below normal Jan, above February and March. Prelim total snowfall KNYC = 58-68 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Big winter incoming. Long duration too. My early predictions are Dec -1, January +.5, Feb -2, March -1.5 Precip will be above normal Dec, below normal Jan, above February and March. Prelim total snowfall KNYC = 58-68 inches. You know what, I have to agree with this, personal snow Weenie feelings aside. You can look at all the other indices , la Nina, el niño, qbo, amo, pdo glaam etc.... But we've learned none of them matter too much if the NAO want to go negative. Other than the sun, the NAO seems to be our producer of weather around. So to simplify everything, what's changed since 09'/10'?? I Like your thinking and reasoning trials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Thunderstorms are starting to fire over the higher terrain I'n NW NJ, looks like we can get some pulse severe storms this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I believe we are very cold this winter.The number of days where the high temp is 32 or lower will be in the 30s.I dont believe we have another blockbuster snow winter though.I believe we see snow amounts between 30-35 inches but with smaller storms.What we had the past 2 winters was just insane and Historic.Even if we get all the teleconnections working in our favor,that is no gaurantee we are going to cash in.As I said,the big story is going to be the cold with NYC having a chance to reach 0 for the first time since 1993-94 winter.BTW,has anyone noticed,the last warmer than normal winter we had was 2007-08??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I believe we are very cold this winter.The number of days where the high temp is 32 or lower will be in the 30s.I dont believe we have another blockbuster snow winter though.I believe we see snow amounts between 30-35 inches but with smaller storms.What we had the past 2 winters was just insane and Historic.Even if we get all the teleconnections working in our favor,that is no gaurantee we are going to cash in.As I said,the big story is going to be the cold with NYC having a chance to reach 0 for the first time since 1993-94 winter.BTW,has anyone noticed,the last warmer than normal winter we had was 2007-08??? Heh that would actually be a better winter than the last two. 30-35 inches of snow with lots of cold and moderate snowstorms scattered from December thru April-- what could be better than that? Give me 6 4-6 inch snowstorms.... one in each month from December thru April, with two in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Yup, basically, a -NAO is good for heat south of Jersey and a -NAO means cooler than normal up in new england-- it basically means equal chances for us Summer 2010 was pretty hot in both northern New York and cerntral New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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