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July Obs.


dsaur

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I don't know why, but ever since I moved out of Atl. I know that my first 100 degree temps will show up around the weekend of the 4th of July. And this summer looks no different. Let's hope it is the winding down of the excessive heat, and not the true beginning. Tony

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Maybe we can get a nice TS to come and rain itself out on the SE in July. Looks like we could get some action.

the 18zGFS and GGEM have a weakness or upper low trapped into the Southeast middle of next week, which drops some decent rains over GA and the Carolinas. Its sandwiched between the 2 main ridges, so thats possible, but I'm not buying it yet until the models hold it. The Euro waits til over 168 hours to bring a front in , actually think thats its second front, but all models have a front or 2 coming into the Carolinas and possibly GA stalling next week, which would atleast bring some chances of rain back. A spin like the GFS is showing would be really nice, but probably unusual.

post-38-0-15621300-1309483745.gif

post-38-0-79137900-1309483787.jpg

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GA and AL later today, maybe?

mcd1460.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN AL...CNTRL GA...WCNTRL SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 011535Z - 011730Z MULTICELL STORMS WILL BRIEFLY PULSE TO SVR LEVELS 19-00Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WITH ISOLD MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UNLIKELY...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WRN EXTENT OF A PV-ANOMALY /AND EMBEDDED MCV ALONG ITS WRN END/ WILL GRAZE THE SERN STATES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN...BOOSTING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MAKING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION. STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...BUT MOST ATTENTION WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SWD INTO ECNTRL AL...CNTRL GA AND WCNTRL SC BY EARLY AFTN. HERE...RESERVOIR OF 1.50-1.60 PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL EXIST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS CONSIDERABLY...RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THE UPR SYSTEM...BUT GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MODEST DCAPE THIS AFTN AND ISOLD DMGG MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS MID-LEVEL COOL/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SLIGHTLY. STORM MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC AS COLD POOLS FORM...BUT PRIMARILY SSE AT AROUND 15-20 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD SERN AL AND THE GA/FL BORDER LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASING SVR THREAT. ..RACY.. 07/01/2011

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I've hit low 90's so far today, probably won't go much higher, at least I hope not. We're right on the edge of a cu layer, if we can get a few clouds overhead we'll hopefully cool off a few degrees.

1kmv.gif?1309543506397

we are also on the edge of some extremely unstable air. I'm slightly doubtful about FFC's forecast of no rain in metro Atlanta.

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Man, I like it! Extreme heat chances going down, and rain chances coming up! Excellent. Now if I can just get a few hurricanes to blow up some tropical up over the SE, and drench the land, happiness will reign :guitar:

I have backed off from 94. Under clouds now it is 91.9

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Heat Index temperatures to stay below heat advisory criteria for North Carolina and the majority of South Carolina.

Models scale back intensity of heat wave at Charlotte, NC.

**Note: This of pertaining to 7/4/11.

Where did you get that graph from of the model output? Looks pretty cool.

Thanks!

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Man, I like it! Extreme heat chances going down, and rain chances coming up! Excellent. Now if I can just get a few hurricanes to blow up some tropical up over the SE, and drench the land, happiness will reign :guitar:

I have backed off from 94. Under clouds now it is 91.9

You'd like the GGEM maybe.

post-38-0-90434200-1309545322.jpg

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I had quadraphonic thunder all afternoon. It would boom from the front left, then bridge to the right, and as that was fading it would come up on the left rear and bridge across to the right rear, then back to the front speakers again :) A look at radar showed storms within a mile or two all around me, but my house was the donut hole. I never saw a drop of rain, though it was very dark and cooled off nicely. Cool sound wise, and temp wise, but I sure would have liked some rain. Hope wxfide and Psalm, and Candyman got some!! T

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I had quadraphonic thunder all afternoon. It would boom from the front left, then bridge to the right, and as that was fading it would come up on the left rear and bridge across to the right rear, then back to the front speakers again :) A look at radar showed storms within a mile or two all around me, but my house was the donut hole. I never saw a drop of rain, though it was very dark and cooled off nicely. Cool sound wise, and temp wise, but I sure would have liked some rain. Hope wxfide and Psalm, and Candyman got some!! T

HAHA!! Yea, we got some...about 5 minutes....just enough to keep the dust down....after the thunder stopped, hubby jumped on the lawn mower and cut the grass in our yard, his bro-in-laws and his daddy's.....he got off at lunch and was returning a favor. That was almost 6 acres of grass he cut. It was a great time to do it...those clouds,although they didn't give much rain made the temps really great yesterday evening.:thumbsup:

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Actually have a forecast that makes me hopeful we will see some much needed rain. Still a couple days away but this is the best NWS disco I have read for my area in a while so i'm keeping my fingers crossed. PWATS could be nearing 2 inches in some areas so even though the severe threat isn't great there is potential for some big rain totals under any of the storms.

AS OF 330 AM SUN...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP

AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON

SYNOPTIC REGIME THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS BROAD TROUGH OF

LOW PRES REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH UPR RIDGING

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL

BOUNDARIES COINCIDENT WITH UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING SCT

CONVECTION TO E NC EACH DAY BEGINNING MON. MOISTURE INCREASES IN

EARNEST BY MON AFTERNOON AS LAYER MIX RATIOS APPROACH 15 G/KG. BEST

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NRN CWA AS SFC FRONT DIPS

INTO NRN NC. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...AS

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY PROMOTING INTRUSION OF ANY MCS ACTIVITY

INTO E NC.

SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TUE AND WED...WHILE A

SERIES OF UPR LEVEL TROUGHS PIVOT EASTWARD AROUND BASE OF MAIN BROAD

TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SYNOPTIC FORCING INTERACTS WITH SEA

BREEZE TO GENERATE SCT STORMS. AGAIN...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL

LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WESTERLY WHILE AT

THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LLJ ENHANCES NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM DUE TO WEAK BULK

SHEAR...THOUGH WITH LARGE INSTABILITY VALS AND HIGH PWATS...HEAVY

RAIN AND ISO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SOME OF

THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

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