Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Models have been consistent in showing it for next week....looks like a 3-6 day type deal of 93+ type heat......not showing 100 degree readings yet, but we all know how these trend recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 what are howard's thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 what are howard's thoughts? I think he might be kind of hedging in his most recent post(s)..not sure I think heat wave 3 is a lock sometime between Saturday and Saturday....not sure how long...might get an 88/89 in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I think he might be kind of hedging in his most recent post(s)..not sure I think heat wave 3 is a lock sometime between Saturday and Saturday....not sure how long...might get an 88/89 in there He could be right that we we don't get as big of heat from here out tho that's hard to say at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 He could be right that we we don't get as big of heat from here out tho that's hard to say at this pt. Heat Wave2 was 6 days with an average high of 94.7....I don't think we go 6 days or as warm with HW3.....but I do think we surpass 6 days at some point in July/August I guess my best guess for HW3 right now would be 4 days with an average high of 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 If we get breaks from the heat like what we have now I can dig. GFS was only showing +18s, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Heat Wave = 3 days in a row 90+...it is an informal definition that is often used in this area 2010 Heat Waves: HW1: 6/12-14: 3 days, 92.6 average high HW2: 6/19-29: 11 days, 95.4 HW3: 7/4-9: 6 days, 97.5 HW4: 7/14-25: 12 days, 95.0 HW5: 8/4-6: 3 days, 93.7 HW6: 8/8-11: 4 days, 94.8 HW7: 8/29 - 9/3: 6 days, 94.5 HW8: 9/22-25: 4 days, 95 2011 Heat Waves HW1: 5/30-6/1: 3 days, 97.3 HW2: 6/7-12: 6 days, 94.7 HW3: 7/1 - 7/5: 5 days, 92.4 HW4: 7/9- 7/13, 5 days, 93.8' HW5: 7/18 - ???, 5 days so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 If we get breaks from the heat like what we have now I can dig. GFS was only showing +18s, right? yes....I think so...just under 20...GFS Mos keeps us around 90 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 What are the parameters that define a heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 What are the parameters that define a heat wave? at least 3 days in a row of 90+ maxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 2010 Heat Waves: HW1: 6/12-14: 3 days, 92.6 average high HW2: 6/19-29: 11 days, 95.4 HW3: 7/4-9: 6 days, 97.5 HW4: 7/14-25: 12 days, 95.0 HW5: 8/4-6: 3 days, 93.7 HW6: 8/8-11: 4 days, 94.8 HW7: 8/29 - 9/3: 6 days, 94.5 HW8: 9/22-25: 4 days, 95 2011 Heat Waves HW1: 5/30-6/1: 3 days, 97.3 HW2: 6/7-12: 6 days, 94.7 HW3: ?????? That 3rd one in 2010 was brutal from the Fourth on. My highs were 95, 96, 98, 99, 99, 92. But looking at my station records, I had lows in the 40's for July 1-2-3. So last year did have some relief. Some, but not very much. Hottest I've been this year is 93 so far. I don't think this summer will rival last year for heat. Hope I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 It has always seemed odd to me for a place that averages nearly 90 degrees for a daytime high in the summer (and maybe does once the new averages are in place???) to define a heat wave as 90 degrees for 3 straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 the title of this thread should be Heat Wave #3?????....models have been anything but consistent showing a "heat wave", unless you're looking for upper 80s. who deemed the classification of heat wave as three days > 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 for clarification....the heat wave classification of three days greater than 90 comes from a paper from 1900....we've come a bit further with regards to scientific research, so probably not a classification which should be cited. WMO classification of a heat wave is 5 consecutive days of maximums that are 5 degree above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 for clarification....the heat wave classification of three days greater than 90 comes from a paper from 1900....we've come a bit further with regards to scientific research, so probably not a classification which should be cited. WMO classification of a heat wave is 5 consecutive days of maximums that are 5 degree above normal. good luck with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 good luck with that... good luck with what? please cite some examples of peer reviewed publications which use this classification? I should probably be the one saying, "good luck with that..." j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 good luck with what? please cite some examples of peer reviewed publications which use this classification? The bolded... Everyone around here uses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 The bolded... Everyone around here uses it. Ahh the americanwx.com peer review process...i was not aware....sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Sounds like another contest coming. I'm ready. I have to make amends for my last showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Ahh the americanwx.com peer review process...i was not aware....sorry lol.. did you just move here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 for clarification....the heat wave classification of three days greater than 90 comes from a paper from 1900....we've come a bit further with regards to scientific research, so probably not a classification which should be cited. WMO classification of a heat wave is 5 consecutive days of maximums that are 5 degree above normal. I'll put heat wave in quotes....it is an informal definition which anecdotally has been used in this region as long as I can remember...it may not be accurate...probably better to use 90 degree days......the WMO definition is just as silly.....as it doesnt take into account degree of heat........so May 30-June 1st was NOT a heat wave, but May 22-28 was a heat wave?...lol..whatever EDIT...just saw the WMO is 5C above normal...so 9F...that makes a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 the title of this thread should be Heat Wave #3?????....models have been anything but consistent showing a "heat wave", unless you're looking for upper 80s. who deemed the classification of heat wave as three days > 90? I put in the ??..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 It has always seemed odd to me for a place that averages nearly 90 degrees for a daytime high in the summer (and maybe does once the new averages are in place???) to define a heat wave as 90 degrees for 3 straight days. it has always been a loose, informal definition in the mid-Atlantic and northeast....obviously in using this definition in DC, there will be some unimpressive "heat waves" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 it has always been a loose, informal definition in the mid-Atlantic and northeast....obviously in using this definition in DC, there will be some unimpressive "heat waves" It's semantics as for the long timers around here know that 90+ usually is accompanied by HHH so even if only 90F it often feels worse. And we also know that many times DCA only barely manages to hit 90 while surrounding places rocket into the low 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 it has always been a loose, informal definition in the mid-Atlantic and northeast....obviously in using this definition in DC, there will be some unimpressive "heat waves" This isnt a college class... The media defines it as 3 days and it's 3 days. I'm shocked someone with a red tag would not have known that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 This isnt a college class... The media defines it as 3 days and it's 3 days. I'm shocked someone with a red tag would not have known that. heat wave—(Also called hot wave, warm wave.) A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather. To be a heat wave such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks. In 1900, A. T. Burrows more rigidly defined a “hot wave” as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F. More realistically, the comfort criteria for any one region are dependent upon the normal conditions of that region. In the eastern United States, heat waves generally build up with southerly winds on the western flank of an anticyclone centered over the southeastern states, the air being warmed by passage over a land surface heated by the sun. See also hot wind. Ward, R. de C., 1925: The Climates of the United States, 383–395. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 This isnt a college class... The media defines it as 3 days and it's 3 days. I'm shocked someone with a red tag would not have known that. We just come from different aspects of the field: enthusiast vs. research scientist...and that's ok. I can't cite the media when I'm preparing manuscripts on my research, I need to back up everything I say with science that has standing in the field, so I tend to be a little harsh on anecdotal evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 heat wave—(Also called hot wave, warm wave.) A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather. To be a heat wave such a period should last at least one day, but conventionally it lasts from several days to several weeks. In 1900, A. T. Burrows more rigidly defined a “hot wave” as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F. More realistically, the comfort criteria for any one region are dependent upon the normal conditions of that region. In the eastern United States, heat waves generally build up with southerly winds on the western flank of an anticyclone centered over the southeastern states, the air being warmed by passage over a land surface heated by the sun. See also hot wind. Ward, R. de C., 1925: The Climates of the United States, 383–395. Yes, A.T. Burrows was the first person to write about a heat wave and that's his definition, and it may be applicable to some regions, but even here it has no basis in July/August, when normal Tmax is near 90. The World Meteorological Organization, a consortium of meteorologists and scientists in our field, have come up with a more realistic, although still flawed, definition of a heat wave. A more accurate assessment of heat waves should be normalized to a specific observation site and be quantified by the specification of a normalized departure from normal, for example, 3 days with Tmax > + 2 standard deviations from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 We just come from different aspects of the field: enthusiast vs. research scientist...and that's ok. I can't cite the media when I'm preparing manuscripts on my research, I need to back up everything I say with science that has standing in the field, so I tend to be a little harsh on anecdotal evidence. I've tried not to go there but you strike me as someone new to the real world. I don't care how you cite a paper... It's accepted that I am right in this discussion. I haven't seen much from you other than telling folks like me they are wrong about something... Even semi board jokes like the split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 We just come from different aspects of the field: enthusiast vs. research scientist...and that's ok. I can't cite the media when I'm preparing manuscripts on my research, I need to back up everything I say with science that has standing in the field, so I tend to be a little harsh on anecdotal evidence. I put it in quotes...I think people are on notice that it is a loose informal definition....I am not using the WMO definition that defines 5 days in July of 95, 99, 102, 100, 97 as NOT a heat wave..yeah right...these things are subjective anyway.....I have been objective in using 90+ days....If using the term "heat wave" offends your sensibilities, I apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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