Chinook Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Now that it is summer, I want to start out a new discussion for us. Fort Collins got 4.5" of rain in May, and it was 4.3 degrees below average. Denver got 4.79" in May and it was 4.1 degrees below average. Thank God it actually rained. It was a drought winter east of the mountains, but not in the high mountains. Now everything is green, our reservoirs are full, and there is still lots of snow in the mountains. The NWS gave us a flood advisory for minor river flooding. On Wednesday night and Thursday night, I think our area could have 40 knots of deep layer shear and a chance for thunderstorms. This could mean hail and tornadoes east of Denver. I'm not sure if everything will play out just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Green is good. Not everywhere is green though... the mountains disappeared yesterday! Sounds like the fires in still very dry Arizona are the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 After a very wet May, bone dry June so far...but that looks to change starting today. Plenty of t-storm opportunity over the next few days, and possibly some severe potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Tomorrow there is going to be some instability (maybe more than today) with a good shortwave trough moving through. I think a few front range thunderstorms developing off the high mountains and moving east 20 - 30 mph. Models don't have very high QPF on this, but I think some storms will happen because of the 500mb trough/weak upslope. Chances of severe depends on if we hit CAPE of 1000 J/kg (foothills) 1500 J/kg (plains) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Tomorrow there is going to be some instability (maybe more than today) with a good shortwave trough moving through. I think a few front range thunderstorms developing off the high mountains and moving east 20 - 30 mph. Models don't have very high QPF on this, but I think some storms will happen because of the 500mb trough/weak upslope. Chances of severe depends on if we hit CAPE of 1000 J/kg (foothills) 1500 J/kg (plains) Oh they will happen. The low QPF is to be expected given the very high based parcels developing off the peaks and the isolated supercell structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I like tomorrow's chances as well. I think the higher low level moisture/DPs that moved in this afternoon/evening will help things destabilize quicker tomorrow. As long as we can get up to about 75 or so by 1 pm, should be a go for a nice round of afternoon action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 I can see distant lightning now. Severe storm for Loveland/Windsor, 68 dBz. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I can see distant lightning now. Severe storm for Loveland/Windsor, 68 dBz. Nice. I was in Boulder last night and saw the lightning as well. Well, the low level moisture certainly deepened overnight. Woke up to fog and drizzle...DPs near 50 with temps just above. If we can get some clearing over the next few hours, the stage should be set for this afternoon/evening. Pretty socked in right now, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 We got heavy rain, about 1.44" in the middle of the city, frequent lightning, and 3/4" hail (actually 1" hail reports in some spots). The hail made a roaring sound. Wow. There was a lot of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Come south, storms! Nada in the immediate metro area on south for about 2 1/2 weeks now. Some nice clouds last evening looking to the north but nothing discrete enough from where I was to get a good picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I was in Boulder last night and saw the lightning as well. Well, the low level moisture certainly deepened overnight. Woke up to fog and drizzle...DPs near 50 with temps just above. If we can get some clearing over the next few hours, the stage should be set for this afternoon/evening. Pretty socked in right now, though. So much for this. Still mostly cloudy and only 62 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 So much for this. Still mostly cloudy and only 62 degrees. Finally clearing up. Gonna need major warming over the next couple hours to spark anything. Good thing is that DP are still relatively high with easterly flow (near 50), but temp only 64 currently. Probably need at least 10 more degrees before anything gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 You aren't getting any help upstream, that's for sure. Still misty and only 52 in Boulder. A nice cool day! And I'm not upset about that looking at what I could be experiencing if I were still in SE Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 You aren't getting any help upstream, that's for sure. Still misty and only 52 in Boulder. A nice cool day! And I'm not upset about that looking at what I could be experiencing if I were still in SE Pennsylvania. 52 still in Boulder? Geez. Yeah, I'm afraid today is a lost cause. Still some good potential this weekend, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 Looking much better for convection today and especially tomorrow. Today there is good SE low level flow along with abundant sunshine to rapidly warm us up and erode the cap. I think we'll see some nice boomers this afternoon over the metro area. Tomorrow looks like it has the chance to be much wetter, with widespread convection due to a shortwave moving through just to the south. Also some severe potential out on the plains tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Well, only .04" at DEN so far in June. Potentially active pattern just hasn't panned out so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Nice cell popped up over central/south Denver around 8-8:30. I tried to rush up to NCAR to get some panorama's of the anvil, but by the time I got there the sunlight was gone and so was the view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Nice cell popped up over central/south Denver around 8-8:30. I tried to rush up to NCAR to get some panorama's of the anvil, but by the time I got there the sunlight was gone and so was the view. Hey! I was up there (I'm here for a week ) during its peak - it was beautiful! Stupid me didn't have my actual camera, but I got some mobile shots. It was stunning over that landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Spectacular lightning show tonight. Flashes every 2-3 seconds over the east metro area for about an hour and a half straight, sometimes covering huge portions of the sky. Only got about 10 minutes of rain here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Hey! I was up there (I'm here for a week ) during its peak - it was beautiful! Stupid me didn't have my actual camera, but I got some mobile shots. It was stunning over that landscape. LokoAko-- I haven't talked to you for years. I used to be "Pinwheeler" back on Eastern. Nice pics. I saw a nice fat thunderstorm tower and anvil in the distance yesterday. It was probably in Morgan County or possibly out by Kimball/Sidney. I didn't have any storms too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Nice cell popped up over central/south Denver around 8-8:30. I tried to rush up to NCAR to get some panorama's of the anvil, but by the time I got there the sunlight was gone and so was the view. I was on a bike in Cherry Creek State Park trying to get home before the storm, watched the whole thing form, and experienced a headwind on the way out from my house (SE around 15 mph) then back again (N-NE around 20 mph) as the wind shifted to provide inflow to the storm! Not often you get a headwind both ways on a bike Looking at radar it looked like a small backdoor front (?outflow from Plains storms) combined with the flow from off the foothills, and up things went. No rain at our house... this AM it seemed like the gradient from nothing to heavy rain/hail was about a foot and a half wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Maybe a few severe storms in northern Colorado tomorrow night. This SREF prediction of 1000 CAPE/30-shear certainly seems to highlight Wyoming http://www.spc.noaa...._1000__f039.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Maybe a few severe storms in northern Colorado tomorrow night. This SREF prediction of 1000 CAPE/30-shear certainly seems to highlight Wyoming http://www.spc.noaa...._1000__f039.gif Aside from May, WY has hogged all the action since last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Hello all, I'm back in CO and I'm looking forward to participating in these threads. I'm about 15 minutes south of Castle Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Mesoscale analyses 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Beautiful moon out there tonight! Too bad North America gets left in the dark with the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Beautiful moon out there tonight! Too bad North America gets left in the dark with the eclipse. Indeed. I rode my bike home about an hour ago and it was illuminating the stray cumulus floating around. Beautiful sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Hello all, I'm back in CO and I'm looking forward to participating in these threads. I'm about 15 minutes south of Castle Rock. Good to have you here! Can always use more posters....hopefully we have something interesting to talk about soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Good to have you here! Can always use more posters....hopefully we have something interesting to talk about soon. Oh Absolutely! I can at least post observations and pics. BTW, a hot dry wind out there. Wind has picked up considerably within the last hour. Haven't looked at the radar, but it's overcast here.....looks like it may want to rain. I did see a couple flashes of lightning a lil while ago, but not sure if anything is producing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Actually, there is a light..... and I mean LIGHT shower out there right now. Probably the most exciting news all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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