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June 6-9th Severe Weather


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As has already been stated, the setup across Montana looks extremely favorable for today.

mxuphl_f26.gif

Agree, I wouldn't be shocked if E. Wisconsin/North Central MI gets a tornado or 2 especially if there is any lake breeze interactions with convection late this afternoon/evening

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Have a feeling SE MT could put on one of the better chase days of 2011 tomorrow. Those hodographs are fairly insane, with due easterly surface flow veering to southwesterlies aloft, all in the presence of 2500-3500 J/kg SBCAPE. Upslope magic can occur with far less impressive parameters, so I'll be watching this one closely.

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Agree, I wouldn't be shocked if E. Wisconsin/North Central MI gets a tornado or 2 especially if there is any lake breeze interactions with convection late this afternoon/evening

Yeah kinda random for me to be looking at this threat but NE WI and the U.P. looks kinda interesting if a lone storm can interact with a boundary (or as you mentioned, the Lake Breeze).

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Not your standard Central forum supercell beachball hail and tornado type threat, wind energy near zero, storms will ingest their own outflow and die, but CAPE that could exceed 6000 J/Kg at max heating, a near 30ºF delta between expected afternoon temps and dewpoint, I see brief downburst wind gusts (rain loading as well, look at the PW), and while shear is near nil, who knows if colliding boundaries might produce brief spin-ups. Hard to see them making it to the ground, when its around 100ºF, bases will be rather high...

LCH.gif

Been almost 3 years since 50 knot winds, even in gusts, IMBY, and that wasn't even a thunderstorm. Today could be the day.

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We have a "significant chance" of storms on Wed night into Thursday, according to NWS LOT.

STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS REPRESENTS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL BREAK THE GRIP OF THE HEAT MID-WEEK. EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST LOOK RATHER WET ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CREATE THE THREAT OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF ELEVATED AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.

And then it looks like we get into another wet and cool couple of days after that. Friday's high is only going to be 67 degrees....

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GRR using the D word in the update, sounds like something interesting to follow later. Also its one of those days that catch people offguard around here in terms of svr weather, as its currently sunny with no haze and its also pretty dry thanks to the low DPs. Heard a few people today already saying how its nice to finally have some days with no chance of rain, could be in for a surprise later.

"WARM FRONT MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE FOCUS

AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERSECT IT AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS

AND PROGRESSIVE DERECHO FORMATION THIS EVENING"

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At least we won't have to worry about bust complaints now? :unsure:

day2.gif

tomorrow is a high risk high reward day take of day for the svr. weenie, meaning while there is a good chance nothing forms and the cap wins out, if something were to go along a lake breeze, outflow boundry, etc. with the insane amount of instablity forecasted things could become quite violent for a lucky/unlucky few.

That said, if there is some huge mcs lingering over the state well into the morning hours tomorrow, then who knows what happens with any lingering boundries plus possible cloud cover and limited heating. At least its interesting weather, thats all you can ask for.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID

259 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL CAMAS COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO...

EAST CENTRAL ELMORE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO...

* UNTIL 330 PM MDT.

* AT 252 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES

NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY...OR 17 MILES WEST OF FAIRFIELD...MOVING

NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WILL BE NEAR...

BAUMGARTNER CAMPGROUND AROUND 325 PM MDT...

GUNSIGHT PEAK AND FEATHERVILLE AROUND 330 PM MDT.

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tomorrow is a high risk high reward day take of day for the svr. weenie, meaning while there is a good chance nothing forms and the cap wins out, if something were to go along a lake breeze, outflow boundry, etc. with the insane amount of instablity forecasted things could become quite violent for a lucky/unlucky few.

That said, if there is some huge mcs lingering over the state well into the morning hours tomorrow, then who knows what happens with any lingering boundries plus possible cloud cover and limited heating. At least its interesting weather, thats all you can ask for.

Yep, chance of thunderstorms the next four days (actually the next seven but Fri-Sun looks more like a stratiform event)...have to believe most people will get a thunderstorm at least one of the days, even if it's not severe.

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Now the favorable environment is spreading east from the high terrain. Cumulus field is starting to expand in size as you head towards the plains of Montana.

Looks like some nasty cells trying to fire over yellowstone. When that moves out onto the plains it will get ugly.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 435

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

545 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM

UNTIL 100 AM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

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