bluewave Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The MCS over the Midwest on Sunday spawned a MCV that is still going off the Carolinas today. Convection is increasing now as this feature is continuing to move around the big ridge in the East.It's always interesting to see how long these can last. Sunday 13:45 UTC Monday 0 UTC Monday 12 UTC Tuesday 0 UTC Current satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Lovingly made home made loop of visible closeup using NASA cake mix. Gone in a couple of days watching GFS 700 mb RH loop, not the feature that migrates into Texas late next weekend for isolated showers. But it is identifiable on the model to Florida. But if this could survive, corss Florida, and visit Texas, a poor boy tropical wave, as it were, that would rock. Enhanced afternoon shower chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The MCS over the Midwest on Sunday spawned a MCV that is still going off the Carolinas today. Convection is increasing now as this feature is continuing to move around the big ridge in the East.It's always interesting to see how long these can last. Where are the vorticity images from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Should make for an interesting forecast here in FL tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I wouldn't be suprised if this presist that this might become an invest, but it could just as easily fade away needs to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Where are the vorticity images from? SJSU keeps a great archive. http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/archive/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I wouldn't be suprised if this presist that this might become an invest, but it could just as easily fade away needs to be watched I'd be surprised. No low level convergence. That, and there is always one model at least that catches on at least a day ahead of time, even if the model is ignored because, like the Canadian or NAM, it is prone to spinning up spurious cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/devloop.html Conditions are favorable for that thing to develop further. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Certainly eye raising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 93L has been classified... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al932011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106010037 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011060100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011 AL, 93, 2011060100, , BEST, 0, 330N, 732W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'll gladly take the moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A nice IR loop showing the evolution of the MCV over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Thunderstorms are showing up on the radar as 93L approaches Florida today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Up to 30% in the new TWO. It's going to run out of real estate before it gets a name though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Up to 30% in the new TWO. It's going to run out of real estate before it gets a name though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I didn't even think it'd make 93L. 6Z NAM suggests while mid level remnants go well South of the house, low level remnants could maybe come close enough to slightly enhance rain chances. Sadly, I believe South Georgia could use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Running out of water fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 RECON has been scheduled WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD) VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....11-001 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 02/1800Z A. 03/1200Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE C. 02/1700Z C. 03/1000Z D. 28.0N 87.0W D. 28.0N 94.0W E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1600Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ^ ^ ^ ^ In my amateur opinion, after reviewing CIMSS upper divergence, lower convergence, and new 12Z NAM, 90% chance both flights show up as cancelled by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Special marine warning issued.. The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a * special marine warning for the coastal waters... from Flagler Beach to the Volusia Brevard County line out to 20 nm. From 20 to 60 nm offshore Flagler Beach to the Volusia Brevard County line. * Until 145 PM EDT * at 1211 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a cluster of thunderstorms... producing gusty winds over 35 knots and capable of producing waterspouts about 20 nautical miles offshore from the Volusia County coast. These storms were also producing frequent to excessive lightning. The storms will move west at 20 knots. *The thunderstorms will approach the Volusia County near shore Atlantic waters and coastal areas through 130 PM. Boaters should seek safe Harbor immediately. Precautionary/preparedness actions... These thunderstorms will likely produce winds over 34 knots and locally rough seas. Small craft... especially those under sail... should move to a safe Harbor if possible. Make sure you and your crew are wearing approved flotation devices during these hazardous conditions. A waterspout is a tornado over water that can be dangerous and even deadly. Small craft can be swamped or overturned by a waterspout. Stay away from them at all times. Excessive lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible... and keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Local met (57) has me excited for a possible early season chase and I won't have to drive far. 20 kts and moderate rain is a great start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A little south.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A little south.....? Svr storm produced quarter size hail in Citrus Co FL a short time ago. Still cold core aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I was going to take dry air entrainment for $200, but cold core aloft works just as well for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 18Z early tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 850-200mb shear is ok, and there are similar conditions ahead....there's a bit more mid level shear, which will inhibit development, plus there's little diffluence on the upper levels, which will also be a limiting factor. Being a tiny feature, global models will have a tough time even acknowledging the system. It looks like it's trying to reform in the GOM attm leaping over most of the FL peninsula. My guess is that it will be upgraded to tangerine tonight, but prospects for further development aren't that good. Looking closer, there might be an anticyclone trying to form over the storm --you can see the clouds to the NW being blown off to the N-- ... if it really develops, then there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Juts because it has a 0% chance of developing, doesn't mean we can't enjoy pictures. The red blob is apparently outflow reacting with an overnight land breeze, it is apparently weakening already with the center further South. But ignore that and enjoy the red blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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