free_man Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 We've seen it in the models for quite some time now and if anything, they have converged a bit more. Possible "outbreak"? Looks like a strong ML punch, favorable lapse rates- should be at least modest instability. There will probably still be issues, however it is almost a slam-dunk for some decent storms, timing and location aside - and possibly something even more interesting than "decent". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Maybe even Tuesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Maybe even Tuesday night? I guess there could be enough of a ib to get some nocturnal storms. Haven't looked at soundings for Tues night, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 main threat would be organized wind damage IMO from what I've seen modeled the last few days. Pretty impressive set-up...it would be a bit more "perfect" if that the trough where able to dig further into the US to cause more lift and more shear to overrun the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Wednesday synoptics seem to have the big pieces of the puzzle together. Low to the northwest, warm front through near dawn, then EML warm sector, followed by cold front. AS ALWAYS details to be determined, but those are sweet lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Wednesday synoptics seem to have the big pieces of the puzzle together. Low to the northwest, warm front through near dawn, then EML warm sector, followed by cold front. AS ALWAYS details to be determined, but those are sweet lapse rates. what is our wind direction I'm not at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 what is our wind direction I'm not at home Probably WSW or SW. We don't want winds that are too westerly, otherwise we won't have as much convergence, and also westerly winds tend to dry out dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 53' redux. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Probably WSW or SW. We don't want winds that are too westerly, otherwise we won't have as much convergence, and also westerly winds tend to dry out dewpoints. Yeah exactly, also probably not as much localized veering in the lls, which most of our big events have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 LOL..at forecasting severe wx 5 days out when the atmosphere will look totally different than what is modelled today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Probably WSW or SW. We don't want winds that are too westerly, otherwise we won't have as much convergence, and also westerly winds tend to dry out dewpoints. Thats good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 750-300mb lapse rates are 8.1C/km on the GFS at ORH on Tuesday night...nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 LOL..at forecasting severe wx 5 days out when the atmosphere will look totally different than what is modelled today No it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Maybe we can get a 6/6/10 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The bufkit seems to think were going to have some convective inhibition.. probably another nw of PVD/BOS deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 That's basically an EML sounding there that Nick posted. If it still looks good on Monday, then we might have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The bufkit seems to think were going to have some convective inhibition.. probably another nw of PVD/BOS deal A little bit of CIN can be good, it prevents too many smaller showers/tstorms and debris from contaminating the whole setup. You are more likely to get some explosive discrete supercells with a little CIN. Obviously you don't want too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The bufkit seems to think were going to have some convective inhibition.. probably another nw of PVD/BOS deal The GFS breaks the cap after the sounding I posted. Some CIN is good because of what Will posted. There could be a precursor MCS event on Tuesday evening/overnight also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 PVD/EWB/PYM/ are all stable due to marine influence... BOS/HFD/BDL/ORH are unstable but CINH is noticeably higher at BOS which probably means we are fried... I think that outlook from the spc is perfecto right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Maybe we can get a 6/6/10 redux? lol...it would be the opposite issue IMO...ton of instability...but shear isn't overly impressive. The other event had a ton of shear but **** lapse rates and limited instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 A little bit of CIN can be good, it prevents too many smaller showers/tstorms and debris from contaminating the whole setup. You are more likely to get some explosive discrete supercells with a little CIN. Obviously you don't want too much. The bufkit gfs number for 'cins' at logan is 112 @ 5PM. I'm not sure how high that is on the scale for cins/cinh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 There is also alot of clouds between 23-37kft at all stations starting around 11am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The GFS breaks the cap after the sounding I posted. Some CIN is good because of what Will posted. There could be a precursor MCS event on Tuesday evening/overnight also. I've seen signs of that as well...along with something possible early Monday morning too. That sounding is great. Everyone wants excessive shear, but big CAPE = fun. You can have all the shear in the world, but CAPE will dictate what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 PVD/EWB/PYM/ are all stable due to marine influence... BOS/HFD/BDL/ORH are unstable but CINH is noticeably higher at BOS which probably means we are fried... I think that outlook from the spc is perfecto right now Don't take BUFKIT verbatim. Fine details like how far the marine influence infiltrates will never be resolved properly on models. Sometimes the resolutions causes it to be too far inland. Based on how the mass fields look, and the instability aloft..that's all I need to see at this juncture. Like Will said, lets see this on Monday before getting too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 lol...it would be the opposite issue IMO...ton of instability...but shear isn't overly impressive. The other event had a ton of shear but **** lapse rates and limited instability. Yeah that was the type of setup where if we actually got any decent storms, they would want to start rotating at the least excuse possible, the shear was ridiculous...but horrible ML lapses rates and relatively poor sfc heating that day really screwed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Don't take BUFKIT verbatim. Fine details like how far the marine influence infiltrates will never be resolved properly on models. Sometimes the resolutions causes it to be too far inland. Based on how the mass fields look, and the instability aloft..that's all I need to see at this juncture. Like Will said, lets see this on Monday before getting too excited. My earliest thoughts is probably nothing good southeast of a Hingham-Brockton-Providence line at this juncture... HFD looked pretty impressive that might be one of the places to be if this threat verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yeah that was the type of setup where if we actually got any decent storms, they would want to start rotating at the least excuse possible, the shear was ridiculous...but horrible ML lapses rates and relatively poor sfc heating that day really screwed us. A few decently curved hodo's for weds.. looks like the LLJ increases as the day wears on which is good. Moisture increases aloft I'm not sure whether that has a positive or negative effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Yeah that was the type of setup where if we actually got any decent storms, they would want to start rotating at the least excuse possible, the shear was ridiculous...but horrible ML lapses rates and relatively poor sfc heating that day really screwed us. the event on Wednesday hasn't looked like a tornado outbreak whatsoever IMO...more of a derecho possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 A few decently curved hodo's for weds.. looks like the LLJ increases as the day wears on which is good. Moisture increases aloft I'm not sure whether that has a positive or negative effect. The real good setups that produced like ORH in 1953 had an EML complete with srly winds. That way, you have maximum shear with srly winds turning wrly with height as well as extreme CAPE. We won't have that this time around...at least it doesn't appear that way, but good mid level lapse rates and a decent trigger is a start. I'm not gonna get any hopes up at all until the 12z Monday stuff rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Source region is important: MN/IA MI , to Lakes, to NE is a perfect trajectory. Positive to neutral tilt trof. Lastly that high offshore staying locked in could help keep winds backed more swly. Lots of positives, hopefully things don't fall apart too much as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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