janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 will add new SPC day2 two outlook here soon for starters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 There's already a thread for this time frame, but go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 SREF still showing 30-40 sigtor ingredients moving into IL/IN. As long as the 00z runs don't back off, I'd wager there will at least be 15% hatched tor on the day 1 outlook and possibly 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Lookout Indiana (Looks like they are reversed.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 There's already a thread for this time frame, but go ahead. To try and have a thread for 24th to 26th will just end up being too big. Since it looks like tomorrow could be another big day, time to split the days up a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 from the new day 2 text FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS INITIAL SUPERCELL ACTIVITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSE UPDRAFTS/ROTATION THAT SHOULD LEAD TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR. AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO SRN IL AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SURGING DRYLINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Things keep creeping north, chicagoland now in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Lookout Indiana (Looks like they are reversed.) Wrong kind of bullseye to be in (hour 36 map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Things keep creeping north, chicagoland now in play. I agree, especially the southern half. You will be very near the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Wrong kind of bullseye to be in (hour 36 map). No doubt.. Funny thing is my mom who has only been out here to visit us once since we moved in 2006. Told me that she was ok with any weather, but tornadoes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Back on April 19 we already had the biggest April outbreak recorded in Indiana...22 tornadoes If I am correct...Thank goodness they were weak. Wednesday looks like a horse of a different color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Wrong kind of bullseye to be in (hour 36 map). This product has really grown on me. It helps to check the parameters individually but since I have been following it for the local area, something usually happens when it's showing big numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 All of the models, including the GFS and NAM, have trended towards a better-organized low-level cyclone over the past few runs, resulting in a stronger LLJ. That secondary intensification associated with a subtle wave in the larger-scale trough is something we've seen several times this year. Considering the oft-discussed bias in the models w.r.t. surface wind backing, I think this suggests a major tornado outbreak is likely to occur on Wednesday, although probably not quite up to today's intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Tomorrow looks like a classic Ohio Valley severe weather/tornado outbreak with a broad warm sector - definitely high end moderate risk or possibly an upgrade to high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Back on April 19 we already had the biggest April outbreak recorded in Indiana...22 tornadoes If I am correct...Thank goodness they were weak. Wednesday looks like a horse of a different color. 26, and amazingly, virtually all of them were QLCS tornadoes. SREF was bringing 40's and 50's for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 New Day Two Maps & Text DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO/AR NORTHEAST INTO INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM MO/AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES... VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE LATE DAY1 EARLY DAY2 PERIOD WHERE DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SFC CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING UPPER LOW BY 25/12Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENABLE A BROAD WARM SECTOR TO RETURN ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE 70S SFC DEW POINTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR/WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN INSTIGATOR FOR PRE-DAWN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER KS/MO AND WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE EPISODIC SEVERE CLUSTERS DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE E-W BOUNDARY RETREATS TOWARD LOWER MI. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE WARM BUOYANT AIRMASS THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MO/AR INTO NRN LA AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL ENABLE THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE NEWD DURING THE DAY AND WILL AID DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S...THOUGH TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO AT SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS INITIAL SUPERCELL ACTIVITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSE UPDRAFTS/ROTATION THAT SHOULD LEAD TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE MODERATE RISK CORRIDOR. AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS AR INTO SRN IL AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE SURGING DRYLINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO WRN VA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND POSE AT LEAST A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DARROW.. 05/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 No doubt.. Funny thing is my mom who has only been out here to visit us once since we moved in 2006. Told me that she was ok with any weather, but tornadoes.. Not sure anyone is ok with tornadoes close to them. Not to mention in light of what's transpired this spring already. This product has really grown on me. It helps to check the parameters individually but since I have been following it for the local area, something usually happens when it's showing big numbers. You know me, I'm not a loyal/educated svr weather follower, but those maps are an easy check for me to see what might go down. Seems like they do a good enough job of highlighting risk areas. Definitely will keep abreast of the situation here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I would suspect we'll see the moderate risk shifted farther North and East and much of the moderate risk area replaced with a high risk should the 00z guidance hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Things keep creeping north, chicagoland now in play. Yeah the Southern 1/3rd of Michigan is starting to get into play also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I would suspect we'll see the moderate risk shifted farther North and East and much of the moderate risk area replaced with a high risk should the 00z guidance hold. I was thinking some north on the new Day 2 would happen but was surprised it didn't. I felt like another 75/100 miles or so is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 All of the models, including the GFS and NAM, have trended towards a better-organized low-level cyclone over the past few runs, resulting in a stronger LLJ. That secondary intensification associated with a subtle wave in the larger-scale trough is something we've seen several times this year. Considering the oft-discussed bias in the models w.r.t. surface wind backing, I think this suggests a major tornado outbreak is likely to occur on Wednesday, although probably not quite up to today's intensity. If you had to pick an area where would you pick? I like SPI as a first guess but will probably change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If you had to pick an area where would you pick? I like SPI as a first guess but will probably change. if I had to pick a target area I'd head towards Effingham... you can zoom east-west or North-south if need be. but I think I in Flora don't need to go anywhere..... except to the local EOC's underground bunker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I would suspect we'll see the moderate risk shifted farther North and East and much of the moderate risk area replaced with a high risk should the 00z guidance hold. Ya I wouldn't be surprised if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Have fun in the severe/tornadic section, I'll be enjoying low-mid 50s and rain. I'm pretty used to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Have fun in the severe/tornadic section, I'll be enjoying low-mid 50s and rain. I'm pretty used to that. will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If you had to pick an area where would you pick? I like SPI as a first guess but will probably change. From a purely meteorological standpoint, I'd say a 50 mi radius centered around Cairo, IL. Of course the MS river complicates things from a chaser standpoint. Wednesday doesn't seem to have as clear cut of a target area as today, since it's highly dependent on how the surface wind field and LLJ evolve throughout the day, and I'm not confident yet that the models have a good grasp of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah the Southern 1/3rd of Michigan is starting to get into play also. Classic conditional threat...the wind field is very concerning should we get any surface based instability tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Classic conditional threat...the wind field is very concerning should we get any surface based instability tomorrow. Yeah, though the models have inched the instability up a tick with every run. Certainly something to watch that is for sure with the Warm Front in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This map is a little difficult to make out but we have quite a few areas with 0-3km CAPE progged in the 300-400 J/kg range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 People may not openly or overtly show it but there is a small segment of the board who does wish for exactly that. If you think there is not you are the moron. Hmm, the post I quoted was deleted...... We don't need the morality police showing up...that debate has been had numerous times. I guess you shouldn't hope for damaging winds either since some derechos cause more damage than most tornadoes. There are a lot of weather freaks here, whatever will happen will happen regardless of any sadistic wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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