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May 24 Plains/MW Severe Threat


Helicity

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

208 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

NORTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF MOSCOW. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT

25 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO

EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MOSCOW AND CAVE.

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For a virtual target, I'm zeroing in on the OKC-Ardmore I-35 corridor. The progged parameters in this area are incredible, and this is south of the funky wind profile and storm interaction issues to the north based on the latest RUC runs. We'll probably see a couple cells in this corridor go absolutely nuts and possibly produce multiple violent tornadoes.

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more south into central TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0215 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241915Z - 242045Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO

CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A

TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE

REGION.

A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX AND IS STARTING TO

ADVANCE MORE QUICKLY EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS

JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD TO NEAR SAN

ANGELO. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE ACROSS THE MCD AREA AND

STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS CONVERGENCE

INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY

IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. IN

ADDITION...PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40

KT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET

MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MAKING CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE

FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT

FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN

ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD

ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO

THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

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KSC081-242015-

/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110524T2015Z/

HASKELL KS-

242 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY

UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 237 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF

HUGOTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 30 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO

EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SUBLETTE...

TICE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY.

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AT 237 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF  

HUGOTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST  

AT 30 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.  

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Knew this was coming.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

300 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

NORTHEASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 300 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF

CANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMES...CANTON LAKE...CANTON...CLEO

SPRINGS...FAIRVIEW...HOMESTEAD...HUCMAC...ISABELLA...LONGDALE...

MENO...ORIENTA...ORION AND RINGWOOD.

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New TW to the south of Dewey County, here we go.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

306 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

EASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

WEATHERFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FAY...GREENFIELD...HYDRO...WATONGA

AND WEATHERFORD.

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And here comes the hammer.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

307 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

EASTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 308 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

ALFALFA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALBERT...ALFALFA...BINGER...

BRIDGEPORT...CARNEGIE...COLONY...COWDEN...EAKLY...FORT COBB

RESERVOIR...HINTON AND LOOKEBA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 90 AND 103.

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