IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...ERN PA...AND CENTRAL/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191447Z - 191615Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA...NRN NJ INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NY. HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ADDED TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN PA...NJ AND INTO MUCH OF NY...WITH SURFACE HEATING ALSO EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY TRACKING NWD THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL NY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE AIR MASS FROM DELMARVA/MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD INTO NY DESTABILIZING /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/...GIVEN SURFACE HEATING BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7 C/KM. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH THE MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY... EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NWD FROM ERN VA AND THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO NJ AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NY. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES PER AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS /-18 TO -20 C AT 500 MB/ ADVECTING OVER THIS REGION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. 11Z WRF-HRRR AND 00Z 4 KM WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SHOWING ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN PA AND SPREADING INTO NJ/NY. ..PETERS.. 05/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Good instability now that the sun has broken out. Visible satalite shows that the cloud cover is continuing to diminish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 MU cape is up there, bulk shear around 35-45kts, dp's in the 60's, clouds clearing. Now we leave it up any shortwaves coming UNO the area to pop off storms in certain areas. Can't see why slight risk wouldn't be increased in coverage even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC011-015-017-025-029-037-043-045-069-071-075-077-079-089-091- 093-095-097-101-103-107-113-115-127-131-133-200000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0307.110519T1620Z-110520T0000Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS CARBON CHESTER COLUMBIA DAUPHIN DELAWARE LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PHILADELPHIA PIKE SCHUYLKILL SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA WAYNE WYOMING YORK $$ ATTN...WFO...OKX...CTP...BGM...PHI...ALY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I'm actually liking our chances for today. Liking the sun coming out before noon. Really helping destabilize. Lapse rates are a bit stable, but otter indicies are solid looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Tornado warning on the east shore. On my phone, can anyone link it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 TORNADO WARNING MDC029-035-191715- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.110519T1643Z-110519T1715Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1243 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND... NORTH CENTRAL QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND... * UNTIL 115 PM EDT * AT 1239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MORGNEC... OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CRUMPTON PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD FROM EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND PUBLIC. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ015&warncounty=MDC035&firewxzone=MDZ015&local_place1=Crumpton+MD&product1=Tornado+Warning Funnel cloud reported emg mngmt, and public alike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Those are really nice. Solid hit for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Radar is lighting up in central DE and the eastern shore of MD with everything drifting NNE. Hopefully the storm down in Kent country doesn't slide too far to my east here in Wilmington......that's the one with the tornado spotted. Even further SW things are picking up in MD....this could be a busy afternoon with multiple threats. Sun has been out here for a few hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Newark, DE just received (about 2:20) pea-sized hail and torrential rains. Decent rain (not torrential) coming down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I just saw that beast cross over South Mountain in the Topton/Bowers/Alburtis area did not see the funnel...just the "darkness" (maybe rain wrapped?) It was pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 nice little storm going up right over Lee's house/work hail indicator on GR3 says 0.75" and i can hear thunder up here already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 nice little storm going up right over Lee's house/work hail indicator on GR3 says 0.75" and i can hear thunder up here already Friend saying dime size hail in colwyn, se delco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Friend saying dime size hail in colwyn, se delco lee just told me he's in upper darby and they had pea size hail. That cell literally missed me by about a mile east for hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Friend at firehouse sent me pea sized- nickel sized hail video at fire house in upper darby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Friend at firehouse sent me pea sized- nickel sized hail video at fire house in upper darby Nice ! Us up here in Radnor have missed storms to the east and west today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Allentown split is in effect for the 2nd straight event so far. I don't care what the radar says, it's barely drizzling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I had pea sized hail in upper Darby along west Chester pike awhile ago right at the havertown boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Friend at firehouse sent me pea sized- nickel sized hail video at fire house in upper darby I might have that also on video Mypant leg is still wet from filming with the window open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks like we have one more chance for storms with the shortwave trough near Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Lee is in my hood? Oo man! Gotta watch stuff down by Balt. Not sure if it's moving ne or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Lee is in my hood? Oo man! Gotta watch stuff down by Balt. Not sure if it's moving ne or north. Looks to be moving more NE.Down to 59 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks to be moving more NE.Down to 59 degrees now. Might be a little too stable here. We'll see how they I teract with the boundary as they move ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Ok, gonna need some help here. Looking out back of my house in Drexel Hill, towards the NNE, saw this.. Picture break down time. Def was lowering in the clouds. this was snapped around 431pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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