I figured I'd start this thread to help us fill in the often boring periods of the warm season. Its very early and we aren't even sure of the ENSO state for next winter, but most probabilities point toward a weak Nina...ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and CFS want to go a neutral-negative by fall. Given that we tend to have multi-year Ninas after a strong El Nino, this would make sense to have a second year of La Nina...but nothing is guaranteed. What we do know with a lot more certainty is