janetjanet998 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 spin off of the other thread..this worked pretty good last time we had higher threats on consecutive days...that way furture forecast events won't get tangled in with current events day 2 outlook for starters 657 ACUS02 KWNS 241730 SWODY2 SPC AC 241729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF AR INTO SRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID SOUTH AND MID MS/LOWER TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ..SYNOPSIS MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW ENTERING NRN CA...AIDING IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN STATES TROUGH DAY 1 AND THIS SYSTEM ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY...AS A STRONG UPSTREAM 90-100 KT PACIFIC JET SPREADS INTO THE WRN STATES. STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSTREAM WINDS IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED TRACKING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AT 12Z MONDAY OVER OK...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING OF THIS LOW AS IT TRACKS NEWD REACHING MO BY 26/00Z...AND INTO NRN IL 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY WILL CONCURRENTLY MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE LOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING SWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SWD EXTENDING DRY LINE ADVANCING ESEWD WILL BE THE FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTMS THIS PERIOD. ..ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/LOWER TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING WITH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN A SSWLY LLJ WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT 12Z MONDAY. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS JET /50+ KT/ IS FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE ARKLATEX TO MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPORT GREATER TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF INTO THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THAN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH 1-1.5 INCH VALUES SPREADING NNEWD ALONG THE LLJ. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE GREATEST VALUES /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/ EXTENDING FROM THE DRY LINE IN ERN TX/SERN OK INTO AR. AT 12Z MONDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF OK/ERN KS TO THE OH VALLEY IN VICINITY AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN MO THROUGH ERN OK/AR TO ERN TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/BULK SHEAR AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO SWLY AT MIDLEVELS... SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AND VERY LARGE HAIL - ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL STORMS - AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...MID SOUTH AND LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OVERNIGHT INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS AS STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE LLJ. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Much of the attention thus far has been directed towards the Tuesday-Wednesday time period, and rightfully so. However, Monday could be a significant tornado outbreak in its own right. The SREF significant tornado ingredients parameter, which I know some of us are a big fan of due to its stellar performance this season, paint a substantial 50%+ area over portions of AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 And it continues overnight too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Man, tomorrow's setup just got more complicated. Looks like there may be a bout of morning/early aftn convection over AR, which could reduce the threat there later in the aftn or evening due to convective turnover/stabilization. Just how this early convection evolves is crucial. If the SPC WRF is correct, it would prevent northward influx of moisture later in the day. It could leave behind a detrimental cold pool. Or, on the other hand, it could leave behind a tornado-enhancing boundary (I have yet to see this happen on dynamic days, but hey who knows). Or, the atmosphere may destabilize in time if the early convection leaves early, and all this will mean nothing. It's anyone's guess. Meanwhile, explosive development is likely over N-Ctrl TX and S/SE OK around 21Z tomorrow. This is to the west of SPC's MDT area. But with AR looking less a given during the daytime hours (at least IMO, I could be wrong though), the I-35 corridor and points just east may come into the fore. EDIT: Forgot to mention that these early storms will pose a tornadic threat in their own right as they near the MS River in the afternoon. That of course will also need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I myself am liking the SLR-MEZ-TXK triangle for tomorrow. We'll have to see what things look like in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Just pushed out a 05Z Severe Weather Analysis. Still tracking severe potential over the San Angelo, Allen, Abilene, Ft. Hood thru Tyler, TX up to Russelville, AR. Main threat overnight through the morning is wind gust potential up to 75 knots, and hail up to 2.5" in diameter. Severe Analysis http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 New day one 15% hatched Tor risk area DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO SRN MO...WRN TN AND NWRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK AND TX NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OH ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NRN SECTIONS OF WV/MD... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ON MON MORNING...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SRN OK...WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO MO BY 00Z. STRONG SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BRING MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...THEN SPREADING NEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING. DESPITE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. ...ERN OK...NERN TX EWD INTO SRN MO...AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN... SUBSTANTIAL MORNING CONVECTION...AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN DEFINING WHERE THE BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE EXIST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING OVER ERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO...WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE A COLD POOL OVER SRN MO/NRN AR. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SOME ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY AND WILL MIX EWD TO JUST E OF I-35 BY 00Z WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. AS MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS STREAM NWD ACROSS TX...THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE QUICKLY...AND SOME STORMS MAY FORM RELATIVELY EARLY OVER ERN TX...NRN LA AND MUCH OF AR. ALTHOUGH NOT OPTIMALLY TIMED IN A DIURNAL SENSE...SHEAR PROFILES WOULD STILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL AND WIND. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER NERN TX...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND FAR SRN MO AS THE UPPER JET DEVELOPS AND LIFT NEWD. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF TORNADOES...A FEW STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE EXACT NRN EXTENT OF THE STRONG TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT/OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE. OTHER SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO/HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS SRN AR...NRN LA...NWRN MS OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER JET. ...ERN OH...NRN WV/MD...MUCH OF PA... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR BENEATH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST NEAR A WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO PA/NJ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. A SLY 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER HELP IN THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THUS BE LIKELY. GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW CELLS WILL BE LONG LIVED...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS STORM MOVE IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 04/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electronicmaji Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Half of Arkansas is underwater, it's beyond flash flooding now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 MOD shunted south(also check out the hatched 5% hail lol) DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX/SE OK ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AR...NW LA...NW MS...AND FAR WRN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM ERN TX/OK NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN OH AND PA... ..SYNOPSIS A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER N TX/OK TODAY...AND NEWD OVER AR/MO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM S CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING TO SW MO THIS EVENING AND NW IL LATE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR SLY/SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD AND THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FACTORS ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. ..NE TX/SE OK ENEWD TO WRN TN/NW MS THROUGH TONIGHT COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS ALREADY UNFOLDING THIS MORNING WITH THE WEAKENING COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEING OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER MCS MOVING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO SW AR. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN AR...GENERATING ANOTHER COLD POOL AND INHIBITING NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IN AR. THE MCS WILL INITIALLY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THERE IS SOME RISK FOR SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE ON THE S/SW FLANK OF THE MCS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES FROM NE TX INTO SRN AR. FARTHER W IN N/NE TX AND SE OK...SOME NWD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED E/SE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT IN N TX...AS A RESULT OF UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...WHERE THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 250-350 M2 PER S2/ TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN NE TX/SE OK...AND SPREADING INTO NW LA AND CENTRAL/SRN AR LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. ..NRN AR/SRN MO/IL THROUGH TONIGHT THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO THREAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE STABILIZING IMPACTS OF ONGOING AND EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE NWD EXTENT OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...SUCH THAT ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS LIKELY INVOF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE S WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISK THIS FAR N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 It should also be noted the MOD risk is just east (I mean about 20 miles east) of Dallas now. Definitely something I'll be watching, and I'll be out chasing.In addition, the 13Z outlook can be referred to as a 'low confidence forecast' based on the wording used. We'll have to watch very closely where that convection fires, because that could put the metroplex at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I myself like the far southeastern portions of Oklahoma, and far northeastern parts of Texas for today. And possibly western parts of Arkansas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I myself like the far southeastern portions of Oklahoma, and far northeastern parts of Texas for today. And possibly western parts of Arkansas as well. I agree. If chasing today I'd place myself east of Dallas near Greenville. Very impressive 500mb jet streak will enter Texas this afternoon and will no doubt kick things off in a big way. 3km EHI are forecast over 7 in northeast Texas as well. Arkansas will be pretty decent as well, but with some lingering clouds up there I question just how much they'll be able to destabilize. I would also like to be on the trailing broken line of supercells further southwest anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I agree. If chasing today I'd place myself east of Dallas near Greenville. Very impressive 500mb jet streak will enter Texas this afternoon and will no doubt kick things off in a big way. 3km EHI are forecast over 7 in northeast Texas as well. Arkansas will be pretty decent as well, but with some lingering clouds up there I question just how much they'll be able to destabilize. I would also like to be on the trailing broken line of supercells further southwest anyway. I like the outflow boundary across northeastern Texas too, marked nicely by cumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Looks like some action just fired up just East of Dallas. Already Severe T- Storm warning in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I like the outflow boundary across northeastern Texas too, marked nicely by cumulus. There's already over 3000j/kg of surface cape in that area as well. Some of the SPC meso parameters are very impressive for so early in the day. EHI, sig tor, effective SRH are all pretty stout for late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Half of Arkansas is underwater, it's beyond flash flooding now. And a lot more on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 There's already over 3000j/kg of surface cape in that area as well. Some of the SPC meso parameters are very impressive for so early in the day. EHI, sig tor, effective SRH are all pretty stout for late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Very impressive to say the least for it being 11am there. 1km EHI already up to 8 over south-central Oklahoma/north-central Texas north of Dallas. That's extremely impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Look at these flash flood warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...WW 200... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...COMBINED WITH PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Look at these flash flood warnings I saw a report from northern Arkansas of over 10 inches in the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Interestinglack of CAPE in the areas of AR in moderate - see how it goes this afternoon Lot of clouds and showers/storms. Wind fields are increasing, though MCS cloud debris just starting to clear central Arkansas right now, so should see at least an hour or two of heating before the convection in Texas/Oklahoma arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 MCS cloud debris just starting to clear central Arkansas right now, so should see at least an hour or two of heating before the convection in Texas/Oklahoma arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Looks like some towering cumulus beginning to take off along the dry line from south-central Oklahoma down into central Texas. This could be the beginning of the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 For the secondary threat area, the sun continues to filter through across E OH. At a local station here in Akron, the temp just shot up to 70 in a jiffy. I'd estimate MLCAPE >1000 now, or at least soon to be. Wind is out of the SE beneath SW flow at 850. With 50-65kts of bulk shear, anything that fires along or very near the boundary can rotate and, if sustained long enough, drop a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 TOG near Memphis. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 MSC009-033-093-TNC047-157-251815- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110425T1815Z/ DESOTO MS-BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN- 1250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...SOUTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL... NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES... AT 1248 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BAILEY...OR NEAR COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. AT 1240 PM A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY LAW ENFORECMENT AT HACKS CROSS ROAD AND HIGHWAY 385. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...LA GRANGE...MOSCOW...PIPERTON... ROSSVILLE...WILLISTON...BAILEY...CAPLEVILLE...PARKWAY VILLAGE...WHITE STATION...PATTERSONVILLE...FORTY FIVE AND HAYS CROSSING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 The cell west of Gainesville Texas is already starting to look interesting. Nice bean shape look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 TOG near Memphis. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 MSC009-033-093-TNC047-157-251815- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110425T1815Z/ DESOTO MS-BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN- 1250 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...SOUTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL... NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES... AT 1248 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BAILEY...OR NEAR COLLIERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. AT 1240 PM A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY LAW ENFORECMENT AT HACKS CROSS ROAD AND HIGHWAY 385. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...LA GRANGE...MOSCOW...PIPERTON... ROSSVILLE...WILLISTON...BAILEY...CAPLEVILLE...PARKWAY VILLAGE...WHITE STATION...PATTERSONVILLE...FORTY FIVE AND HAYS CROSSING. There's no report of damage, so it may not be credible. Also, at the time, the rotation had largely collapsed on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 There's no report of damage, so it may not be credible. Also, at the time, the rotation had largely collapsed on the radar. two reports and both are by law enforcement, I'd say this was probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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