FoothillsNC Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm afraid the outbreak Wednesday is going to be nearly unprecedented in the great TN Valley. All factors needed are there and then some. The saving grace might be a rain cooled early part of the day, but that will only make things shifted east a little if so, meaning the GA and eastern TN sections are the hardest hit. Its tough to say right now, either way its likely going to get extremely bad with loss of property and I'm afraid lives. This is the part of extreme weather you don't want to actually happen, but honestly know it will. Its like watching a train coming down the tracks and there's no way to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Emergency managers are asking for chainsaws to get into Vilonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Wow just had some very high wind with this approaching severe thunderstorm! I would say some were around 50 mph and I just heard a tree fall! Impressive! Yea, nice storm going through Cobb right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm afraid the outbreak Wednesday is going to be nearly unprecedented in the great TN Valley. All factors needed are there and then some. The saving grace might be a rain cooled early part of the day, but that will only make things shifted east a little if so, meaning the GA and eastern TN sections are the hardest hit. Its tough to say right now, either way its likely going to get extremely bad with loss of property and I'm afraid lives. This is the part of extreme weather you don't want to actually happen, but honestly know it will. Its like watching a train coming down the tracks and there's no way to stop it. Yea, looking back to our West and seeing what is going on in Texas/Arkansas with already multiple long-tracking tornadoes, with one possible being a violent tornado...And to think that Wednesday is supposed to be the worst day. Scary stuff to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I'm afraid the outbreak Wednesday is going to be nearly unprecedented in the great TN Valley. All factors needed are there and then some. The saving grace might be a rain cooled early part of the day, but that will only make things shifted east a little if so, meaning the GA and eastern TN sections are the hardest hit. Its tough to say right now, either way its likely going to get extremely bad with loss of property and I'm afraid lives. This is the part of extreme weather you don't want to actually happen, but honestly know it will. Its like watching a train coming down the tracks and there's no way to stop it. Hopefully there won't be any loss of life. I mean, an EF-4 tornado went through the heart of the St. Louis metro and nobody died, so you just never know. Then you had a weaker tornado go through an area where almost nobody lived in Eastern NC and 10 people died. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 How do you think we are looking here in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The town of Vilonia, AR is gone according to a tweet that Jim Cantore just read =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Hopefully there won't be any loss of life. I mean, an EF-4 tornado went through the heart of the St. Louis metro and nobody died, so you just never know. Then you had a weaker tornado go through an area where almost nobody lived in Eastern NC and 10 people died. Go figure. It all depends on where it strikes. A twister can hit rural farmland in Kansas and still kill several people. Likewise it could hit downtown Manhattan and there be zero lives lost, a lot depends on a lot of factors, like human response, structures, time of day, preparedness, etc. I'd be very surprised if there is no lives lost on Wednesday, not to sound morbid or hypey, but just stating my own opinion. Although I sure hope there won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Damn, not good... From Bart Comstock on Twitter: BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports: Vilonia PD reports "town is gone," pavement has been scoured outside of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Hopefully there won't be any loss of life. I mean, an EF-4 tornado went through the heart of the St. Louis metro and nobody died, so you just never know. Then you had a weaker tornado go through an area where almost nobody lived in Eastern NC and 10 people died. Go figure. The correlation is mobile homes. After looking most of the reports from 14th through 16th tornadic outbreak was most of the deaths were from mobile homes. Mobile homes seems to be more frequent fixture in the South than most other parts of the nation. It seems that regardless of how much warning is given about how easily destroyed they can be even a windstorm, some people whom reside in these structures during tornado outbreaks. It's almost insanity as to how and why do these individuals allow themselves to take shelter when there is an imminent threat of a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The correlation is mobile homes. After looking most of the reports from 14th through 16th tornadic outbreak was most of the deaths were from mobile homes. Mobile homes seems to be more frequent fixture in the South than most other parts of the nation. It seems that regardless of how much warning is given about how easily destroyed a windstorm, some people whom reside in these structures during tornado outbreaks. It's almost insanity as to how and why do these individuals allow themselves to take shelter when there is an imminent threat of a tornado. It always puzzles me why people who live in mobile homes refuse to leave when a tornado is imminent. Are they stupid ???? I mean just use common sense and go to any building nearby that is safer. Also, does anyone find it ironic that there are more mobile homes in the south than in other areas of the country, DESPITE the fact that the south is more prone to tornadoes than other areas of the country ? Surely there are other options for people to live than in a mobile home. It just seems like you are taking a huge risk by living in a mobile home in a tornado prone area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Nasty severe storm just rolled through Marietta, GA (Cobb County). Heavy Rain, Wind, a few hail stones...Just a warm up for Wednesdays action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The correlation is mobile homes. After looking most of the reports from 14th through 16th tornadic outbreak was most of the deaths were from mobile homes. Mobile homes seems to be more frequent fixture in the South than most other parts of the nation. It seems that regardless of how much warning is given about how easily destroyed a windstorm, some people whom reside in these structures during tornado outbreaks. It's almost insanity as to how and why do these individuals allow themselves to take shelter when there is an imminent threat of a tornado. The belief that mobile homes are more prevalent in the South is a complete myth. I've traveled north numerous times and off the interstates, and saw just as many mobile homes in Wisconsin as I ever did in NC, maybe more. The difference is that the South has more occurences of tornadoes, meaning south of the Wisconsin to NY parallel. Also, when I was surveying the two mobile homes destroyed here by the F0 twister recently, I saw plenty of damage on the brick homes in that area, its just that tornadoes leave their mark on mobile homes...I know its common for many people to say "why do tornadoes hit trailer parks" ? when in fact, a weak twister just doesn't show its damage that much on brick structures, as opposed to trailers, (speaking of F0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Nasty severe storm just rolled through Marietta, GA (Cobb County). Heavy Rain, Wind, a few hail stones...Just a warm up for Wednesdays action! That was worse then our last 2 squall lines haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 That was worse then our last 2 squall lines haha Lucky (or unlucky depending on your perspective) for you guys. It's been such a quiet spring here (other than the drenching rains). Hard to believe the rest of the south has been so active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The belief that mobile homes are more prevalent in the South is a complete myth. I've traveled north numerous times and off the interstates, and saw just as many mobile homes in Wisconsin as I ever did in NC, maybe more. The difference is that the South has more occurences of tornadoes, meaning south of the Wisconsin to NY parallel. Also, when I was surveying the two mobile homes destroyed here by the F0 twister recently, I saw plenty of damage on the brick homes in that area, its just that tornadoes leave their mark on mobile homes...I know its common for many people to say "why do tornadoes hit trailer parks" ? when in fact, a weak twister just doesn't show its damage that much on brick structures, as opposed to trailers, (speaking of F0) Actually, the data done by the 2000 U.S Census shows that the 7 of the top 10 states with the highest percentage of the nation's mobile homes are Southern states. South Carolina as #1 and North Carolina is #2 . It's not a myth at all. http://www.epodunk.c...omes/index.html http://www.statemast...ts-mobile-homes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I have family in Little Rock. Here's the text of an email sent out to our family from them: We are O.K. I think damage reports from Little Rock and definitely north of us are going to be horrible tomorrow. I huge tornado went from the Morgan/Maumelle exit through Mayflower and over to Vilonia. It was like the ones they have in Oklahoma. A wedge shape if that means anything to you weather watchers. It started off going through Roland where the Monroe's live (for those of you who know them). So far, no reports of fatalities. It will be a miracle if there are none. A church was destroyed in Morgan. That's right next to Little Rock. Sounds pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It always puzzles me why people who live in mobile homes refuse to leave when a tornado is imminent. Are they stupid ???? I mean just use common sense and go to any building nearby that is safer. Unfortunately, when the moment of decision comes, people will hesitate. It's hard to get folks to leave the psychological womb of their home, where it's warm and dry, when hen-egg hailstones are falling outside, or when it's nighttime and raining and blowing. It's even harder for the elderly and infirm. Plus, many times there just aren't any good shelter options nearby. So by and large people take their chances -- and usually (statistically) they come out all right; the tornado misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Unfortunately, when the moment of decision comes, people will hesitate. It's hard to get folks to leave the psychological womb of their home, where it's warm and dry, when hen-egg hailstones are falling outside, or when it's nighttime and raining and blowing. It's even harder for the elderly and infirm. Plus, many times there just aren't any good shelter options nearby. So by and large people take their chances -- and usually (statistically) they come out all right; the tornado misses. I think you are right, but still just because most people come out of a storm alright doesn't mean they should just assume that it will always be the case. People should always be prepared for the worst case scenario, despite the likelihood that they will probably make it through alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It always puzzles me why people who live in mobile homes refuse to leave when a tornado is imminent. Are they stupid ???? I mean just use common sense and go to any building nearby that is safer. Also, does anyone find it ironic that there are more mobile homes in the south than in other areas of the country, DESPITE the fact that the south is more prone to tornadoes than other areas of the country ? Surely there are other options for people to live than in a mobile home. It just seems like you are taking a huge risk by living in a mobile home in a tornado prone area. Part of the problem is the high false alarm rate. How many times have you seen a tornado warning and no tornado reaches the ground? People eventually become complacent and do not take these things seriously. Then once they see or hear the tornado coming its too late. Hopefully with the implementation of dual polar doppler radar the false alarm will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 It always puzzles me why people who live in mobile homes refuse to leave when a tornado is imminent. Are they stupid ???? I mean just use common sense and go to any building nearby that is safer. Also, does anyone find it ironic that there are more mobile homes in the south than in other areas of the country, DESPITE the fact that the south is more prone to tornadoes than other areas of the country ? Surely there are other options for people to live than in a mobile home. It just seems like you are taking a huge risk by living in a mobile home in a tornado prone area. Is simple if you think about it. Get inside storms coming.(just like the last 100 storms) Severe thunderstorm watch.(just like the last 50 times) Tornado watch.(just like the last 25 times) Tornado warning!(just like the last 10 times) WOOOOOOOOOSSSSSHHHHHH...........oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Part of the problem is the high false alarm rate. How many times have you seen a tornado warning and no tornado reaches the ground? People eventually become complacent and do not take these things seriously. Then once they see or hear the tornado coming its too late. Hopefully with the implementation of dual polar doppler radar the false alarm will fall. Well, even though the April 16th tornado outbreak was very tragic in NC, hopefully it opened up some people's eyes to realize that how dangerous tornadoes are and maybe in the future they will take storms more seriously now that they saw what it's capable of doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Well, even though the April 16th tornado outbreak was very tragic in NC, hopefully it opened up some people's eyes to realize that how dangerous tornadoes are and maybe in the future they will take storms more seriously now that they saw what it's capable of doing. People know what a tornado is capable of doing. They just don't think it will ever do it to them. Nothing will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Actually, the data done by the 2000 U.S Census shows that the 7 of the top 10 states with the highest percentage of the nation's mobile homes are Southern states. South Carolina as #1 and North Carolina is #2 . It's not a myth at all. http://www.epodunk.c...omes/index.html http://www.statemast...ts-mobile-homes its kind of hard to take podunk seriously. The actual census data shows a more dispersed demographic, rather than propogating stereotypes. This is very old 1990 actual census data, which shows the south then at 52 percent of the nations mobile homes, which means, considering the north is more populate (or was at 1990) that means per capita, more mobile homes in the north. Now the tables may be closer to evenly distributed , since the South is about equally as populated as the north, depending on where you draw the line "north". Obviously, with the economy, mobile homes represent a much larger number of housing lately, but the census data shows clearly its not a southern phenomenon at all. However, the Northeast is largely free of large numbers of MH's. Its like saying NC is rural, when in fact, most of the state is densely populated. The myths on TV, movies, etc . continue to feed the uninformed. http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:5l0tjvRTCK4J:www.census.gov/apsd/www/statbrief/sb94_10.pdf+which+states+have+the+highest+number+of+mobile+homes?&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEEShzMBLxcK2_m0wos_fHpHwuOgnJvY-upgIxOk1mNl4SWhyEsIVfI6-7dsC2CfhkYBKfMPEfoxt9rk5lyH2_bSoCi5PxJC4SiTBpRMMpSywUP-kIAF-DlIRAF4EGRK7gcVWraqn6&sig=AHIEtbTa_YNi_b35bA6NgD1BLUwXEnLQhA&pli=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 People know what a tornado is capable of doing. They just don't think it will ever do it to them. Nothing will change. For a time I'm sure people will take these things more seriously. However I find that after time has passed, people tend to revert back to their old habits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Well, even though the April 16th tornado outbreak was very tragic in NC, hopefully it opened up some people's eyes to realize that how dangerous tornadoes are and maybe in the future they will take storms more seriously now that they saw what it's capable of doing. Folks here know they just dont have many options. 1) We dont/cant really have basements here in eastern NC 2) most people are not like us and arent glued to the radar etc when these things are happening 3) by the time the local on air met say folks on such and such road needs to take shelter its prolly to late to get in your car and try to get away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The odds are this will peak out wednesday over the northern deep south and TN Valley, tornado wise. Then as you head towards GA/NC/SC, you will see more of the svr variety w/ isolated weakl tornadoes. IMO our best chance will be Wednesday night and Thursday where the vort will be digging as far SE as it can. Either way, there will be bad storms everywhere in the southeast by wednesday. With the combo of the bermuda high and incoming s/w-cold front complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Well, even though the April 16th tornado outbreak was very tragic in NC, hopefully it opened up some people's eyes to realize that how dangerous tornadoes are and maybe in the future they will take storms more seriously now that they saw what it's capable of doing. Yep, if you're in a trailer next time go to the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The odds are this will peak out wednesday over the northern deep south and TN Valley, tornado wise. Then as you head towards GA/NC/SC, you will see more of the svr variety w/ isolated weakl tornadoes. IMO our best chance will be Wednesday night and Thursday where the vort will be digging as far SE as it can. Either way, there will be bad storms everywhere in the southeast by wednesday. With the combo of the bermuda high and incoming s/w-cold front complex. Keep in mind NW GA is in the TN Valley also. Even though you say it may not be as bad in East AL and West/NW GA, i think this area could be in a Moderate Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Has there ever been a Day 2 High Risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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