Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Yep, it could be as much as 4-6" in some spots. It's going to be a quick/heavy hitter too, coming through these cities just in time for the Monday morning rush. Some rain will mix in on the southern edge of this band and as the boudary layer warms during the day Monday, as expected with late season events It could also be just enough for Detroit to crack a top 5/70" season too. My jaw dropped too when I discovered what was brewing. Because of how boring this pattern was I didn't even bother to look at the models lately. I heard this from a weather forecast on one of our local TV stations. I'm in severe weather/summertime mode myself, but mother nature wants to do what it do so it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Yep, it could be as much as 4-6" in some spots. It's going to be a quick/heavy hitter too, coming through these cities just in time for the Monday morning rush. Some rain will mix in on the southern edge of this band and as the boudary layer warms during the day Monday, as expected with late season events It could also be just enough for Detroit to crack a top 5/70" season too. My jaw dropped too when I discovered what was brewing. Because of how boring this pattern was I didn't even bother to look at the models lately. I heard this from a weather forecast on one of our local TV stations. I'm in severe weather/summertime mode myself, but mother nature wants to do what it do so it is what it is. A shift north would do Milwaukee some good, but right now NWS only has a 40% chance of rain/snow in the area. We'll see what happens, but leave it to a surprise April storm to crop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 A shift north would do Milwaukee some good, but right now NWS only has a 40% chance of rain/snow in the area. We'll see what happens, but leave it to a surprise April storm to crop up. It's coming through here a little too late for my liking (between 09z and 21z), a tick faster wouldn't hurt at all. QPF-wise were in a pretty good spot this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Almost fell out of my Chair when I took a peak at the 00z GFS. My Goodness! So do we dust off the old North West trend BS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 12z NAM game back south a bit from the 6z run, this should be interesting. the dry northeast flow off the lake should help on this side in IL/WI The 6z GFS bullseyes north of I-88 in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 If this ends up being snow...from the 6z GFS nice area of tad colder temps at 850mb in northern IL due to the ascent taking place and cooling the column at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I just woke up and found this! WOW! This will be fun to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Yeah I've been focusing so much on the severe aspect for Tuesday I didn't notice this either. Should be a fun event for far northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin and points east. We're gonna be just a bit too far south here to see any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 SREF shows a narrow band of decent snow accumulations too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 DTX COLDER AIR IS MAKING GOOD INROADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SUPPORTING SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE 00Z RAOB OUT OF GREEN BAY TELLS THE STORY...-7 C AT 850 MB...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND OF 50 KNOTS. THIS COLD AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SETTLING IN THE NEGATIVE MID TO UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN ADVANCING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE PRESENT TIME...ZIPS ALONG TO THE EAST. TREMENDOUS MID LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHICH LAYER WILL BE MOST ACTIVE. BOTH NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING INTENSE LIFT BETWEEN 700-500 MB WORKING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH QPF TOTALS SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN HALF AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR-DETROIT LINE...WITH GFS EVEN INDICATING THE HALF INCH QPF LINE SNEAKING NORTH OF EIGHT MILE. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL SNOW. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS CONCERNING DUE TO THE TIMING WHICH WILL BE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND BECAUSE OF THE INTENSITY...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A 6 HR WINDOW. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SEEN AT THE 700 MB LEVEL IS CLOSE TO 4 G/KG ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...SO MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE INTENSE LIFT ADVERTISED. A LOOK TO THE REGIONAL GEM AND UKMET SHOWS THE 850/700 MB FRONTS A BIT MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...AND THUS MAJORITY OF THE ACTION AND QPF IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...WITH AMOUNTS ABOUT HALF OF THE AMERICAN SUITE. A LOOK AT THE WRF OUT OF MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY ALSO SHOWS THE MAX QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...AND PREFERENCE IS WITH THIS SOLUTION...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER MISSOURI IS QUICKLY VEERING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 00-06Z MONDAY. EVEN SO...IT DOES APPEAR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANN ARBOR-DETROIT LINE...WITH POPS AND AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF AND SHUTTING DOWN AS ONE HEADS NORTH. FORECASTING UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF NORTH...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER ARE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW...AND CONCERNS FOR SOME RAIN MIXING IN CUTTING DOWN ACCUMULATIONS...IN ADDITION TO COMPACTION DUE TO THE WET SNOW. THE LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OVER BY 15Z MONDAY. DIDN`T PARTICULARLY LIKE SEEING THE 00Z EUROPEAN SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES QUARTER OF AN INCH TO 4 TENTHS OF INCH OF QPF FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THINKING IS THIS IS TOO BROAD BRUSHED...AS INTENSE LIFT WILL LEAD TO MORE FOCUSED BANDING...MOSTLY CONFINED CLOSE TO THE 850 MB FGEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 SREF shows a narrow band of decent snow accumulations too. Clips the center of Metro Detroit for the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 12z GFS bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 this is a tough forecast for sure given its going to be a fairly narrow band and heavier snow will play with amounts, I wouldn't rule out some TSSN as well. The 9z SREF really bumped up snow amounts and pushed the band a bit further south from the 3z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 this is a tough forecast for sure given its going to be a fairly narrow band and heavier snow will play with amounts, I wouldn't rule out some TSSN as well. The 9z SREF really bumped up snow amounts and pushed the band a bit further south from the 3z run. Looks like there could be a pretty big difference between the southern suburbs to the northern suburbs of Chicagoland. The area up near the Wisconsin border could really get clocked if some of those east/west bands stall over that area for any length of time. This is the type of setup that can often overperform, so it's gonna be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Looks like there could be a pretty big difference between the southern suburbs to the northern suburbs of Chicagoland. The area up near the Wisconsin border could really get clocked if some of those east/west bands stall over that area for any length of time. This is the type of setup that can often overperform, so it's gonna be fun to watch. I like where I sit right now and wouldn't rule out a smaller shift southward. the 12z hi-res models will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 SREF shows a narrow band of decent snow accumulations too. Congrats Kenosha! 5-6 inches based on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 SPC added Northern Ilinois to the general thunder outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I shouldn't have looked at this, but NAM 12z clown map = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 An aside, but are the clown maps decent at taking ratios into account? It appears as if the 12z NAM is using very close to a 10:1 ratio, which is probably too high, but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 An aside, but are the clown maps decent at taking ratios into account? It appears as if the 12z NAM is using very close to a 10:1 ratio, which is probably too high, but what do I know? Well we don't call them clown maps for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Well we don't call them clown maps for nothing. True, but even with a conservative ratio, they would yield about 4 inches, much different with the current forecast that calls for 2 inches at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 12z NMM says north of I-88 in IL to extreme southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Bah, humbug! This snow is a concluding unscientific postscript if you ask me. I like snow in the appropriate season. This is anticlimactic and I am in full severe weather mode. Will be interesting if it does verify in forecast areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 IWX issued an updated discussion. Long story short, their forecast is on track with a widespread 1-3" acoss their far northern areas with the potential of localized 2-4" amounts. They expect an area of sleet along the rain/snow line. They will consider the possibility of issuing a WWA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 NMM please: ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 NMM please: ARW: I'll take either scenario, though I'd definitely prefer the nmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 LOT in their aviation update said as of now the heaviest snow is expected to fall in Wisconsin, and the rain/snow line will stretch from Rockford to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 GRR: CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THE VFR TO IFR THEN LIFR FLIGHTCATEGORIES VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 06Z THRU 09Z MON... AND EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z MON. I HAVE TRENDED THE SFC VISBY FCSTS IN SNOW FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS DOWN TO 3/4 MILE FOR THAT TIME FRAME. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND... AS I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NARROW WEST EAST ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LIGHTER SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 It's good to see dtx has the heavier snow to the south and is only going with a few inches down south. Detroit has been hit hard everytime DTX has forecasted nothing-few inches. I like where we sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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