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2010-2011 SNE snowfall map


ORH_wxman

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Nice map Will. I wish we had more totals submitted by members to fill in the dead zones but it seems like you do a really good job extrapolating based on your knowledge of climo and how the events played out each year.

We need some posters from Central CT, like Meriden....

You know any weenies that live out that way?

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HAH ..I know that PL (sleet) is added to the snowfall, but if it is hail from a convective situation I don't think it counts. Even though some crazy times people have literally measured several inches of hail.

Does the coating of hail on Saturday put BIrving over 90" for the year?????

I dont want to continue the fight but I had to say it

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The monster Shopper's World snow pile in Framingham is still around (and still pretty large).

Wonder when it is finally no more. Pretty skanky looking, but it is May 10th

LOL, you can thank my friend for that pile. I posted an earlier pic of the pile right after the 2/2 storm on FB. It was about 80' high.

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The monster Shopper's World snow pile in Framingham is still around (and still pretty large).

Wonder when it is finally no more. Pretty skanky looking, but it is May 10th

LOL...saw that on boston.com today. that is one fugly pile of snow. i wonder how much it loses each day? someone should go check on june 1 and see if its still there. cpickles lives nearby there...he can do it.

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The monster Shopper's World snow pile in Framingham is still around (and still pretty large).

Wonder when it is finally no more. Pretty skanky looking, but it is May 10th

Nice! We lost the last of our snow piles last week. I was happy we made it to May. I was wondering if any shopping mall/area still had some and now I know where to look. I remember in '95/'96 going to the Holyoke Mall in mid-May and they still had a snow pile. A week later we had a heat wave and I thought it would be neat to check on it. That day the maintenace folks took the last of the snow and spread it out so it would melt. I felt so sad....

Since the piles are artificial, would it count if I use a snow gun to make a huge pile snow? I might try that next year till we get another 90"+ year....

Dave

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This sounds low to me. I believe my final was within an inch of 75". I have it at home.

The 96" or whatever in Southbury sounds right as well to me.

Do you happen to have what you measured for each event? It wouldn't surprise me if I was a little bit low, it absolutely sucks for measuring where I live.

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What a winter. Can we do it again this year? Statistical deck is stacked against it but we may be in uncharted territory with regards to the blocking schemes, solar ramifications and ENSO (which doesn't matter much anymore)...

Should be fun.

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What a winter. Can we do it again this year? Statistical deck is stacked against it but we may be in uncharted territory with regards to the blocking schemes, solar ramifications and ENSO (which doesn't matter much anymore)...

Should be fun.

ENSO still matters...the Pacific pattern this year had a very Nina-like look with an Aleutian ridge and lower heights towards the West Coast...the -NAO/-AO block was able to give us below average temperatures and above average snowfall, but the essential 500mb configuration is still reflective of the strong Nina (it's also reflective of the residual warmth of the previous year's strong El Nino, as you can see there was a dearth of below average heights in the Hemisphere as a whole):

We look OK this year with a -QBO and low solar activity, and also global temperatures are running a bit cooler than the past few years following the strong La Nina. Those are definitely positive factors. On the other hand, the NAO/AO have turned quite positive since February, and I'm not sure we're likely to see the type of blocking that characterized Winter 09-10 and Winter 10-11 unless we have an El Nino to warm the stratosphere. The SOI and AAM have turned more Nino-like, but ENSO Region 3 has lost some of its warm anomalies, doubtless a result of the fact that we don't have huge warmth in the subsurface of the Tropical Pacific, just a generally warmer than average look. I think we'll end up negative-neutral for ENSO state, although it's quite early to say. A negative neutral/weak Nina year has been favorable in the past with some blockbuster winters like 95-96, 66-67, and 60-61...as well as other decent years like 83-84 and 59-60. Still a long ways to go, however.

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ENSO still matters...the Pacific pattern this year had a very Nina-like look with an Aleutian ridge and lower heights towards the West Coast...the -NAO/-AO block was able to give us below average temperatures and above average snowfall, but the essential 500mb configuration is still reflective of the strong Nina (it's also reflective of the residual warmth of the previous year's strong El Nino, as you can see there was a dearth of below average heights in the Hemisphere as a whole):

We look OK this year with a -QBO and low solar activity, and also global temperatures are running a bit cooler than the past few years following the strong La Nina. Those are definitely positive factors. On the other hand, the NAO/AO have turned quite positive since February, and I'm not sure we're likely to see the type of blocking that characterized Winter 09-10 and Winter 10-11 unless we have an El Nino to warm the stratosphere. The SOI and AAM have turned more Nino-like, but ENSO Region 3 has lost some of its warm anomalies, doubtless a result of the fact that we don't have huge warmth in the subsurface of the Tropical Pacific, just a generally warmer than average look. I think we'll end up negative-neutral for ENSO state, although it's quite early to say. A negative neutral/weak Nina year has been favorable in the past with some blockbuster winters like 95-96, 66-67, and 60-61...as well as other decent years like 83-84 and 59-60. Still a long ways to go, however.

We may be toast next winter. We'll end up with another Nina year and 2nd year Nina's tend to be not so great although the almost Nina 2008-09 was pretty good. But as you pointed out, NAO is going the wrong way. Has this few year NAO cycle been a blip in the continuous + regime of the past few decades or are we experiencing the other way around? Either way, I can't serious contemplate what will happen next winter until summer shows its hand. I'll certainly have a good handle by mid September.

1959-60 really blew until March. I remember it well.....I was in 7th grade. But the March blizzard made up for months of sub par winter wx. Here in Boston, if it were not for the 3/3/60 event, we'd have had 1/2 or less of snow climo for that winter.

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We may be toast next winter. We'll end up with another Nina year and 2nd year Nina's tend to be not so great although the almost Nina 2008-09 was pretty good. But as you pointed out, NAO is going the wrong way. Has this few year NAO cycle been a blip in the continuous + regime of the past few decades or are we experiencing the other way around? Either way, I can't serious contemplate what will happen next winter until summer shows its hand. I'll certainly have a good handle by mid September.

Maybe with ENSO being weak possibly....we may be at the mercy of any solar activity....I don't know. I wonder if we see it flipping around this summer....perhaps something like - during early summer and then flipping + again later in August or something. I guess we are due for a period where the NAO is positive given how long and deep the NAO has been in the negative cycle, but there are some nice factors that might be on our side for next winter. Hopefully the NAO is one of them. I would think a weak -NAO and weak ENSO would be just fine for SNE, but of course there are other factors at play. Much of the northeast has had at least 3 if not 4 good to great winters since '06-'07 so eventually climo has to backhand someone.

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  • 5 weeks later...

After waiting for some late snow totals to come in, I was able to tweak the map further and fill in a couple gaps. This will be the final version of the map for 2010-2011 unless some other new totals come in. Thanks for the totals/comments.

20102011snesnowfall.png

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After waiting for some late snow totals to come in, I was able to tweak the map further and fill in a couple gaps. This will be the final version of the map for 2010-2011 unless some other new totals come in. Thanks for the totals/comments.

Congrats Will, looks outstanding.

I wonder how many of these you will wind up doing during your life?

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  • 3 months later...

I've been looking at the medium range guidance and its becoming less and less likely we'll see another accumulating snow event for even the higher terrain of SNE. There always remains the possibility we get something later in the month, but I'm going to start the map anyway as those chances are remote. If I need to add a couple inches from a slop event in a few spots, then I'll do that. I was mostly making sure we didn't get a more widespread event and the chances of that drop off rapidly after the first 2 weeks of April.

So here's the blank map, if you live on this map, then post your totals. No faux weenie totals either, as I will QCing the data before plotting it.

20102011snesnowfall.png

Here are the previous 4 seasons I have plotted:

20092010snesnowfall.png

294iiqf.jpg

11gpwy0.jpg

11rvno7.jpg

Bump in ur rump

Pick your poison

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