bluewave Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I wanted to track how our temperatures are running as compared to La Nina climatology. These anomaly composites are for spring and summer following a La Nina winter.I started the comparison off with March and have included April so far.I added monthly composites going forward through August.It's always interesting to see how the actual temperatures verify vs the composites. Spring( MAM) Summer(JJA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 nice post...here are some Summers following la nina...Years following a cold winter...Years that became la nada...Years that became el nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Thanks,Uncle.Nice comparison there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 The April La Nina composite vs April 2011 so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The April La Nina composite vs April 2011 so far: how does precipitation match up this year?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 how does precipitation match up this year?... We are in a wetter pattern here than the La Nina composite. FWIW I added the May precipitation composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 looking forward to May... I think 1956 is the best one out of these three years...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I think the real warmth doesn't arrive until late May/early June; most La Niña years have been cold for the Northeast during May, and the GFS has been showing a blocking pattern arriving by 5/2-3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 I'm getting cold feet about a cool May...here are some warm May analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 April vs the composite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Seems to be a great composite in the middle part of the country...but we're running above it here in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 I'm hoping we continue to run a bit above composite because the composite looks miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 So far the spring temperatures are working out close to the La Nina composite nationally with cooler than normal temperatures to the north and warmer to the south. This spring the above normal temperatures were able to push into the NE. Spring 2011 so far MAM La Nina composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjmJS Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is a very informative thread. One concern I have is the reliance on enso patterns for projecting since winter failed so miserably. Do you guys feel a -PNA/+NAO would negate a neutral ENSO for the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is a very informative thread. One concern I have is the reliance on enso patterns for projecting since winter failed so miserably. Do you guys feel a -PNA/+NAO would negate a neutral ENSO for the summer? Welcome to the board.Once the blocking pattern finally broke down later in January,the La Nina temperature composites have worked out pretty well nationally. This year like during some other La Nina springs,the area of above normal temperatures pushed into the Northeast.All the spring and summer temperature composites are based on the La Nina being present during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 May so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjmJS Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Welcome to the board.Once the blocking pattern finally broke down later in January,the La Nina temperature composites have worked out pretty well nationally. This year like during some other La Nina springs,the area of above normal temperatures pushed into the Northeast.All the spring and summer temperature composites are based on the La Nina being present during the winter. thanks for the welcome! I'm looking forward to learning and hopefully contributing to these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm getting cold feet about a cool May...here are some warm May analogs... Those are a definite mixed bag for the upcoming summers. May 1955 was followed by a torrid summer. Not so 1965, 1975 or 1985. Also, this year doesn't end in "5"; a crucial distinction.In any event this is turning out to be a normal to cool May. I would shy away from any "warm phase" analogs. I wonder how other coolish Mays work out for the upcoming summer. Offhand, 1973 is the only one I strongly remember being cool, given my youth, and given that May is not a major outdoor sports month. Most of what I remember is from "warm phase" Mays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Those are a definite mixed bag for the upcoming summers. May 1955 was followed by a torrid summer. Not so 1965, 1975 or 1985. Also, this year doesn't end in "5"; a crucial distinction. In any event this is turning out to be a normal to cool May. I would shy away from any "warm phase" analogs. I wonder how other coolish Mays work out for the upcoming summer. Offhand, 1973 is the only one I strongly remember being cool, given my youth, and given that May is not a major outdoor sports month. Most of what I remember is from "warm phase" Mays. I expect the May temperature map will be warmer in the east at months end...There have been a few May's that were cool but the Summer turned out warm... 1952 1961 1966 1973 1983 2002 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I expect the May temperature map will be warmer in the east at months end...There have been a few May's that were cool but the Summer turned out warm... 1952 1961 1966 1973 1983 2002 2005 1983, 2002 and 2005 are warm phase or PDO-neutral analogs. I suspect if one really digs that cool Mays are often followed by warm summers. Can anyone tell me what May 1953, May 1954, and May 1959 were like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I expect the May temperature map will be warmer in the east at months end...There have been a few May's that were cool but the Summer turned out warm... 1952 1961 1966 1973 1983 2002 2005 Well, is it safe to say that the 1996 analog is off the table? I hope so, because after a May mini heat wave it pretty much sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1983, 2002 and 2005 are warm phase or PDO-neutral analogs. I suspect if one really digs that cool Mays are often followed by warm summers. Can anyone tell me what May 1953, May 1954, and May 1959 were like? This is why I really was hoping it wouldnt get hot in May lol. We should be looking at years like 1956, 1967, etc-- summers after scorchers arent usually that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Well, is it safe to say that the 1996 analog is off the table? I hope so, because after a May mini heat wave it pretty much sucked. IMO you can take the cool 60s/70s/80s analogs off the table as the AMO was in a negative phase. Not so this year. The best overall analogs I came up w/ in my summer outlook were 2008 and 1999. Both had similar ENSO progression, were -PDO, +AMO, etc. Also 1999 featured a warm April and May in our area, like 2011. However we're in a cooler regime globally than 1999, so I expect temp departures to be more akin to the 2008 summer (complete with a hot June and cooler late summer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 IMO you can take the cool 60s/70s/80s analogs off the table as the AMO was in a negative phase. Not so this year. The best overall analogs I came up w/ in my summer outlook were 2008 and 1999. Both had similar ENSO progression, were -PDO, +AMO, etc. Also 1999 featured a warm April and May in our area, like 2011. However we're in a cooler regime globally than 1999, so I expect temp departures to be more akin to the 2008 summer (complete with a hot June and cooler late summer). hmmmm sounds a bit like 1994 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1983, 2002 and 2005 are warm phase or PDO-neutral analogs. I suspect if one really digs that cool Mays are often followed by warm summers. Can anyone tell me what May 1953, May 1954, and May 1959 were like? 1953 was mild 1954 was cool 1959 was warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is why I really was hoping it wouldnt get hot in May lol. We should be looking at years like 1956, 1967, etc-- summers after scorchers arent usually that big. 1953, 1954 and 1955 were all summers after scorchers. And 1956 was no 1967. Overall, there are fewer truly crummy summers in cold phase than warm phase. 7 our of about 34 summers, or 1960, 1965, 1967, 1969 (partially crummy), 1972, 2008 and 2009 just about does it for crummy cold phase summers. By contrast, about 10 in 30 summers, those being 1979, 1982, 1986 (crummy from around July 12 on), 1990, 1992, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003 and 2004 were all really crummy summers. Even the cold phase bummer summers (except for 1960 and 1967) had glorious exceptions to the drear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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