earthlight Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 NZucker, where are you? The glacial peaks in your backyard may very well see significant accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Tonights 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 I love how the forum is completely dead despite the NAM showing 6" of snow this weekend...maybe people are finally smart enough to ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I love how the forum is completely dead despite the NAM showing 6" of snow this weekend...maybe people are finally smart enough to ignore it. Nam = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I love how the forum is completely dead despite the NAM showing 6" of snow this weekend...maybe people are finally smart enough to ignore it. I knew I find something about this up here. The BL and surface will be too warm for anything but at most a little sleet and/or a few wet flakes mixed in with the rain. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The NAM is obviously bi-winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 0z nam text soundings show NYC getting 5.9 inches of snow with temps in the lower 30's on Friday. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 I knew I find something about this up here. The BL and surface will be too warm for anything but at most a little sleet and/or a few wet flakes mixed in with the rain. WX/PT Well, taking the NAM verbatim..it's snowing..just probably not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 The NAM is obviously bi-winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The NAM has been having ridiculously cold bias and Friday will be just a cold rainy raw day for the coast with temps in the low to mid 40's. Wet snow will only be confined for the highest elevation above 1000 feet in NW NJ, Catskills, interior New England, and NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The NAM has been having ridiculously cold bias and Friday will be just a cold rainy raw day for the coast with temps in the low to mid 40's. Wet snow will only be confined for the highest elevation above 1000 feet in NW NJ, Catskills, interior New England, and NE PA. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we had a few sleet pellets to start, but what the NAM is showing is just ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The Nam and the GFS are way different. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The Nam and the GFS are way different. No surprise there. typical with the models when there is snow involved anywhere yesterdays severe weather outbreak was nailed 7 days in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 I wouldn't be totally shocked if we had a few sleet pellets to start, but what the NAM is showing is just ridiculous! At most parts of LI have a better shot especially in the higher elevation there of having some wet snow or sleet on Friday before ending. Everybody calls GFS the cold bias model but the NAM is so much worse and it is ridiculous and no way there will be 6-8" in NYC with this setup in Early April. The only the way in April there would be significant accumulation in NYC is a bombing noreaster like the Blizzard of 82. The 2003 was different because there was moderating cold air in place but this is a overrunning event no way temps will be at or below freezing all day on Friday. I expect it just be a cold raw rainy day with temps in the low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 At most parts of LI have a better shot especially in the higher elevation there of having some wet snow or sleet on Friday before ending. Everybody calls GFS the cold bias model but the NAM is so much worse and it is ridiculous and no way there will be 6-8" in NYC with this setup in Early April. The only the way in April there would be significant accumulation in NYC is a bombing noreaster like the Blizzard of 82. The 2003 was different because there was moderating cold air in place but this is a overrunning event no way temps will be at or below freezing all day on Friday. I expect it just be a cold raw rainy day with temps in the low 40's. I would think if we see sleet with this setup, it would be at the start, rather than at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Day 5 torch again with a similar setup as yesterday. I swear to god if any clouds get in the way again im gonna punch a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 <----- Me after Viewing NAM. ..................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Day 5 torch again with a similar setup as yesterday. I swear to god if any clouds get in the way again im gonna punch a wall I'd bet on Monday being the warmer day at this point, just ahead of FROPA, assuming timing remains around 18z Mon. Sunday morning we've still got the warm front hung up over NJ, and it's usually a bit slower than progged to move out. Probably will be a situation like yesterday where NYC was cloudy much of the day, rising temps by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 00z NAM would yield a 6 page thread if this were DJF, even M. Verbatim it's snowing quite heavily in the air, but sfc high pressure up north is far from impressive (only 1020-25mb). At this point it looks like a dreary day w/ highs in the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Hate to post this, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The air mass is dry enough that I could see snow all the way to the coast if precip. falls heavily enough. In fact, with the isotherms being oriented WNW-ESE, eastern LI may have a better chance at snow than interior northern NJ. However, the main problem is going to be getting precip. into that dry air with WNW flow aloft. ECMWF and other models are further south with the axis of precip., and make more sense to me than the NAM. It should be noted, however, that several of the GFS ensemble members look a lot like the NAM (note - these are 72 hour totals which include a small event on Wed night that produces about 0.20-0.25" in a swath from northern and central PA to northern NJ and NYC/LI.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 The NAM is not in it's good range and colder and wetter the rest of the model guidance, right now. So we can disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Euro has had something very close to NAM for days. But just as NAM comes in nice, last nights 0z euro took it all away and there is now barely any precip on euro. Only .11" total. Edit: 6z NAM looks like euro too. Very little precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Nice spring day shaping up in the city. Wouldn't be surprised if we flirt with 60 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 This sun is really strong, much more intense than Winter. I was cold this morning and then when the sun started taking off it felt 10-15 degrees warmer. In Winter it would've just been brighter with little warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Today is the anniversary of the 1982 blizzard. http://www.northshorewx.com/19820406.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Will there be baseball tonight? Go away rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Will there be baseball tonight? Go away rain Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 And you thought we had strong storms here check this current pressure reading from the Bering Sea Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 27.76 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 And you thought we had strong storms here check this current pressure reading from the Bering Sea Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 27.76 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling ) Indeed! the Bering Sea area does witness some of the most powerful storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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