Winter/Flooding Storm Threat April 3-5

[baroclinic_instability]

Already a severe thread--may as well start a winter/flood thread. Globals are pretty threatening looking with the breakdown of the high latitude blocks and an extension of the East Asian Pacific jet plowing into the intermountain W and ejecting and amplifying over the Plains. The presence of the somewhat large PNA ridge means this potential energetic wave has major amplification potential as the dynamic tropopause ejects over the plains. Major flood threat over the Northern Plains and potential winter event over the Lakes/Northern Plains.

[prinsburg_wx]

Already a severe thread--may as well start a winter/flood thread. Globals are pretty threatening looking with the breakdown of the high latitude blocks and an extension of the East Asian Pacific jet plowing into the intermountain W and ejecting and amplifying over the Plains. The presence of the somewhat large PNA ridge means this potential energetic wave has major amplification potential as the dynamic tropopause ejects over the plains. Major flood threat over the Northern Plains and potential winter event over the Lakes/Northern Plains.

I sure hope "cmichweather & mnweather" can cash in on the winter part of the storm they both have gotten shafted most of the winter season.

[cmichweather]

I sure hope "cmichweather & mnweather" can cash in on the winter part of the storm they both have gotten shafted most of the winter season.

thanks , I saw a few decent winter events but, I missed a few over Christmas and then last week really stunk. I'm sure Fargo will get another 2 feet of snow and I wont see a flake. This certainly looks like an impressive storm, I am a bit worried about jumping on anything yet, that east coast storm is going to have some effect on how this storm evolves, but the potential sure is there to start a thread. If this thing is anything like the gfs is projecting fargo mind as well abandon the city, current projections are already insane and adding another 1-2 inches basin wide might be the "game changer" that some are worried about here, if we didn't have this wall here i'm sure we'd be filling sandbags all day and night.

[baroclinic_instability]

thanks , I saw a few decent winter events but, I missed a few over Christmas and then last week really stunk. I'm sure Fargo will get another 2 feet of snow and I wont see a flake. This certainly looks like an impressive storm, I am a bit worried about jumping on anything yet, that east coast storm is going to have some effect on how this storm evolves, but the potential sure is there to start a thread. If this thing is anything like the gfs is projecting fargo mind as well abandon the city, current projections are already insane and adding another 1-2 inches basin wide might be the "game changer" that some are worried about here, if we didn't have this wall here i'm sure we'd be filling sandbags all day and night.

Quite honestly not too worried about the EC trough/storm as a backed up east coast trough would actually enhance stretching deformation and potential long lived precip training. The biggest "IF" I currently see based on model projections is the angle the energetic wave comes into the CONUS as the CMC/Euro show a slightly more NW oriented wave which then deepens over Canada/northern CONUS whereas the GFS deepens much farther S and with a much greater moisture return/fetch into the storm. The longwave pattern is somewhat high confidence for this time span through Day 5. What I am watching for is trends regarding the placement of the wave as it enters the CONUS.

[prinsburg_wx]

Quite honestly not too worried about the EC trough/storm as a backed up east coast trough would actually enhance stretching deformation and potential long lived precip training. The biggest "IF" I currently see based on model projections is the angle the energetic wave comes into the CONUS as the CMC/Euro show a slightly more NW oriented wave which then deepens over Canada/northern CONUS whereas the GFS deepens much farther S and with a much greater moisture return/fetch into the storm. The longwave pattern is somewhat high confidence for this time span through Day 5. What I am watching for is trends regarding the placement of the wave as it enters the CONUS.

looks like the 0z cmc/ukie is now south of the gfs before heading to the n lakes....cmc/ukie hr 144 in KS where gfs goes through NE/IA.

[baroclinic_instability]

looks like the 0z cmc/ukie is now south of the gfs before heading to the n lakes....cmc/ukie hr 144 in KS where gfs goes through NE/IA.

Yeah just saw the CMC. Got some better plots handy?

[prinsburg_wx]

Yeah just saw the CMC. Got some better plots handy?

i only got slp/qpf plots from 156 - 240 & i'll post the 850 at 144...still working on the 500.

[baroclinic_instability]

i only got slp/qpf plots from 156 - 240 & i'll post the 850 at 144...still working on the 500.

Thanks! CMC made a big jump towards the GFS and the other farther S solutions.

[baroclinic_instability]

Hard to tell but the Euro looks like it will stay along the Canadian border farther N based on the 96 hour plots.

[Chicago Storm]

Hard to tell but the Euro looks like it will stay along the Canadian border farther N based on the 96 hour plots.

Sub 992mb SLP along the KS/OK border at 138hrs.

[baroclinic_instability]

Sub 992mb SLP along the KS/OK border at 138hrs.

Yeah wow--Euro cuts this off over the intermountain W.

[baroclinic_instability]

LOL the Euro and NOGAPS are identical.

[Harry]

LOL the Euro and NOGAPS are identical.

My money would be on the euro and this is not saying much either. Reason being is models typically try to break down blocking patterns too quick. We have already seen this happening starting with the system now crossing the country/tomorrow/Wed as well which the models at one point tried to weaken the block enough for the system to track up this way. Same with the weekend system. The GFS has been struggling big time with this pattern too and has been wanting to warm things up much too quickly via the breaking down of the blocking. I suspect the MJO had a bit to do with this as it has briefly come out of the circle of death and gained a little momentum but that has ceased again and thus headed back to the circle of death as i like to call it. Whenever that happens models tend to go belly up for whatever reason.

Not saying their wont be a storm but i would not get too caught up in the details such as track/rn vs sn etc just yet. I suspect like many ( nearly all ) systems we are not even close to seeing the final track of this thing which will shift and probably by alot of miles. Keep in mind it is starting to look like there is really nothing to push and or to shake things up with the pattern from the pacific into N.America etc which we can somewhat thank the MJO crapping back out for. At this moment in time ( for several months except briefly ) the way it is progressing is by following the cold signals. Right now it is in phase 5 where it looks to go into that circle of death. In winter ( say Dec-Jan ) that typically results in westcoast trough with ridge in the east while at THIS point in the year it is a cold/trough signal in the midwest/GL/ne. As we move along so do the phase numbers and at this moment in time some modeling has it poking back out into phase 7 which by then will be a cold signal and thus suggests storms tracking farther s/e. The euro weeklies etc have been advertising the colder pattern holding on as well through most of April. That does not bode well for systems tracking from the Rockies to the upper MW/N.Plains/N.GL. The weeklies were the first to hit on the current cold we have as well but still they are not the end all either. Point is other then the GFS/CMC there is not much else to suggest that kind of pattern change to bring the storm track etc those models are suggesting. Ofcourse with weaker signals things can change in a hurry as we saw late last Feb into March last year and despite the -NAO/-AO holding on ( as it had all winter ) things warmed up quickly and we were torching by this point. My belief is the -AO helped to drain all the cold air and thus we lacked a decent cold air source by the time March rolled around and thus things moderated quickly. Why too people need not get caught up in a -NAO/-AO equals cold and +NAO/+AO or whatever always equals warm because it just does not work like that. When the AO is + that means we have a cold air source to work with as the PV tends to hang up north which allows the cold to build and a little blocking or say epo ridge can be enough to send it our way and pretty cold at that ( it is a fresh supply ) as we are currently seeing.

Truthfully this is a explosive pattern if we can ever get the right ingredients to come together and thus some decent warmth/moisture from a now above normal GOM to clash with some of that decent cold to the north. March 93 had this with a GOM that had gotten pretty warm ( above normal ) and we still had a decent supply of cold to the north which decided to pay a visit and well you know the rest of that story. The QBO etc is nearly the same as well. Thus a few reasons to watch this thing ( and or this period over the next few weeks ) either way. This basically as good as it is ever gonna get for big bomb potential.

Hopefully i made that easy to understand for all as well. Trying to not get too technical as i know we have a number of people who don't understand the terms etc. If i did botch anything feel free to mention it as i have done it before when i try to not be too technical.

In short don't get too caught up in modeling. They have been struggling a bit lately especially beyond 72-96+hrs and beyond.

[baroclinic_instability]

My money would be on the euro and this is not saying much either. Reason being is models typically try to break down blocking patterns too quick. We have already seen this happening starting with the system now crossing the country/tomorrow/Wed as well which the models at one point tried to weaken the block enough for the system to track up this way. Same with the weekend system. The GFS has been struggling big time with this pattern too and has been wanting to warm things up much too quickly via the breaking down of the blocking. I suspect the MJO had a bit to do with this as it has briefly come out of the circle of death and gained a little momentum but that has ceased again and thus headed back to the circle of death as i like to call it. Whenever that happens models tend to go belly up for whatever reason.

Not saying their wont be a storm but i would not get too caught up in the details such as track/rn vs sn etc just yet. I suspect like many ( nearly all ) systems we are not even close to seeing the final track of this thing which will shift and probably by alot of miles. Keep in mind it is starting to look like there is really nothing to push and or to shake things up with the pattern from the pacific into N.America etc which we can somewhat thank the MJO crapping back out for. At this moment in time ( for several months except briefly ) the way it is progressing is by following the cold signals. Right now it is in phase 5 where it looks to go into that circle of death. In winter ( say Dec-Jan ) that typically results in westcoast trough with ridge in the east while at THIS point in the year it is a cold/trough signal in the midwest/GL/ne. As we move along so do the phase numbers and at this moment in time some modeling has it poking back out into phase 7 which by then will be a cold signal and thus suggests storms tracking farther s/e. The euro weeklies etc have been advertising the colder pattern holding on as well through most of April. That does not bode well for systems tracking from the Rockies to the upper MW/N.Plains/N.GL. The weeklies were the first to hit on the current cold we have as well but still they are not the end all either. Point is other then the GFS/CMC there is not much else to suggest that kind of pattern change to bring the storm track etc those models are suggesting. Ofcourse with weaker signals things can change in a hurry as we saw late last Feb into March last year and despite the -NAO/-AO holding on ( as it had all winter ) things warmed up quickly and we were torching by this point. My belief is the -AO helped to drain all the cold air and thus we lacked a decent cold air source by the time March rolled around and thus things moderated quickly. Why too people need not get caught up in a -NAO/-AO equals cold and +NAO/+AO or whatever always equals warm because it just does not work like that. When the AO is + that means we have a cold air source to work with as the PV tends to hang up north which allows the cold to build and a little blocking or say epo ridge can be enough to send it our way and pretty cold at that ( it is a fresh supply ) as we are currently seeing.

Truthfully this is a explosive pattern if we can ever get the right ingredients to come together and thus some decent warmth/moisture from a now above normal GOM to clash with some of that decent cold to the north. March 93 had this with a GOM that had gotten pretty warm ( above normal ) and we still had a decent supply of cold to the north which decided to pay a visit and well you know the rest of that story. The QBO etc is nearly the same as well. Thus a few reasons to watch this thing ( and or this period over the next few weeks ) either way. This basically as good as it is ever gonna get for big bomb potential.

Hopefully i made that easy to understand for all as well. Trying to not get too technical as i know we have a number of people who don't understand the terms etc. If i did botch anything feel free to mention it as i have done it before when i try to not be too technical.

In short don't get too caught up in modeling. They have been struggling a bit lately especially beyond 72-96+hrs and beyond.

Yeah I am not caught up at all with the details--mainly just interested in the flood threat over the Northern Plains. Rain/snow right now means little--and even then it looks like a mostly rain event for everyone except the folks near the CA border. Models have been awful lately with the timing and exactly how the blocking pattern/wave patterns transition. That said it is amazing models these days can even prog such things. The global ensemble guidance breaks down fast by 96 hrs in association with the high frequency/low amplitude wave features associated with the extension of the E. Asian Pac Jet. Unfortunately there will never be a day those features can accurately be modeled beyond 96 hours. I should have been more careful in stating what I did--but I certainly am not booking anything. The GFS is close to cutting off as well but is by far the most optimistic with the leading IPV max out of the plains and subsequent advection patterns. All models are sucking big right now with the small features--and this is including the ensembles. I am pretty confident with the large scale features through 96 or so--then the small scale features and feedback effects rapidly begin to rear their ugly heads.

[kab2791]

Significant south shifts in the GFS/GGEM today.

[goknights]

South shift and less cold sector precip??

[prinsburg_wx]

0z ggem shifted north from 12z...hrs 132 & 144

[prinsburg_wx]

12z ggem paints this area with over 1.25 qpf and even the lame gfs over .75...it's a concern with the current flooding and lots of snow yet to melt and additional heavy precip that it's going to cause alot more problems around here.

120 & 132 12z ggem

[cmichweather]

I let my pro accuweather trial expire, any one have the ecmwf qpf output for far and bwp?

[prinsburg_wx]

I let my pro accuweather trial expire, any one have the ecmwf qpf output for far and bwp?

BWP

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.7    -2.3    1010      89      95    0.17     551     543    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.4    -2.3    1007      94      97    0.29     549     544    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.2    -4.0    1008      95      99    0.25     547     541    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.9    -4.1    1011      95      98    0.17     546     537    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.1    -3.7    1014      91      96    0.04     545     533    

FAR

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.2    -2.2    1010      89      86    0.03     549     541    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.9    -3.4    1009      96      99    0.25     547     540    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.9    -3.9    1010      94     100    0.30     545     537    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.8    -3.5    1013      98     100    0.13     545     534    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -1.4    -3.3    1016      88      89    0.02     543     531    

[cmichweather]

BWP

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.7    -2.3    1010      89      95    0.17 	551 	543    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.4    -2.3    1007      94      97    0.29 	549 	544    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.2    -4.0    1008      95      99    0.25 	547 	541    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.9    -4.1    1011      95      98    0.17 	546 	537    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.1    -3.7    1014      91      96    0.04 	545 	533    

FAR

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.2    -2.2    1010      89      86    0.03 	549 	541    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.9    -3.4    1009      96      99    0.25 	547 	540    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.9    -3.9    1010      94 	100    0.30 	545 	537    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.8    -3.5    1013      98 	100    0.13 	545 	534    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -1.4    -3.3    1016      88      89    0.02 	543 	531    

Thanks

[snowstormcanuck]

EURO much warmer with this system than the GFS/GEM. Full latitude trough really pumps up the southeast ridge, while the latter two models seem to keep the storm a little more compact and progressive.

[prinsburg_wx]

I know the JMA is crap but am posting this image for enjoyment only as i can't remember the last time i've seen a strong deep L coming out of KS to WI track.

[TheWeatherPimp]

GFS and Euro pretty ominous about a significant rain/flooding threat for portions of the Lower Ohio/Tenn Valley areas next week. Obviously the GFS could be suffering from some convective feedback, but the Euro paints a similar scenario.

[baroclinic_instability]

GFS and Euro pretty ominous about a significant rain/flooding threat for portions of the Lower Ohio/Tenn Valley areas next week. Obviously the GFS could be suffering from some convective feedback, but the Euro paints a similar scenario.

It looks very wet. This is one of the cases where the persistent S flow and very rich moisture flow could easily yield extreme QPF numbers the models pump out.

[TheWeatherPimp]

It looks very wet. This is one of the cases where the persistent S flow and very rich moisture flow could easily yield extreme QPF numbers the models pump out.

12z EURO QPF is showing 3-4" across much of the Ohio Valley

[baroclinic_instability]

12z EURO QPF is showing 3-4" across much of the Ohio Valley

Yeah the flood prone areas are definitely watching this one close all the way from ND through MN into the OV/upper MS valley. The GFS/Euro ops have been much more amplfied and slower with a more positive tilt type upper longwave pattern with the southern stream hanging back in the Rockies. The ensembles initially were not nearly as amplified--but they have also trended a tad less progressive. We will see--the big details in the overall track with this storm are actually dependent upon high frequency variability associated with the IPV max at the base of the Pacific trough that none of the models will be able to handle well and no pattern recognition will help much with. Should the more amplified/slow solution develop--this is going to be a wet storm as well as a potentially large severe outbreak east of the MS river if the trough ejects at the right time with some wintery weather on the northern edge. Spring weather at its craziest no doubt.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Yeah the flood prone areas are definitely watching this one close all the way from ND through MN into the OV/upper MS valley. The GFS/Euro ops have been much more amplfied and slower with a more positive tilt type upper longwave pattern with the southern stream hanging back in the Rockies. The ensembles initially were not nearly as amplified--but they have also trended a tad less progressive. We will see--the big details in the overall track with this storm are actually dependent upon high frequency variability associated with the IPV max at the base of the Pacific trough that none of the models will be able to handle well and no pattern recognition will help much with. Should the more amplified/slow solution develop--this is going to be a wet storm as well as a potentially large severe outbreak east of the MS river if the trough ejects at the right time with some wintery weather on the northern edge. Spring weather at its craziest no doubt.

Thanks for your insight! Hope you are enjoying the new job/location!

[prinsburg_wx]

euro mean at 120...sure would like to see some of those members...anyone know where i can shell out to get those?

[Harry]

euro mean at 120...sure would like to see some of those members...anyone know where i can shell out to get those?

Gonna be costly. SV has the spag plots with all the members but they just give a idea about pressure. Then ofcourse have the ensemble mean at 6hr intervals with QPF etc. FWIW the ensemble mean has about .75 in your area. The ensembles are pretty widespread with tracks from across the northern Plains/Upper MW into the lakes to aas far south and east as central/Southern Plains to Ohio Valley/E.GL-se Canada/Toronto/The NE. The mean takes it e/ene from there to near Detroit into Canada.