Snow_Miser Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 This thread is for the 4/1/11-4/2/11 Nor'Easter and should not be confused with the storm 2 days prior. The 18Z DGEX also came in pretty snowy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Nice discussion going on here, I'm hooked. This week will be a nail-biter for both systems, but a strong low off the coast will bring snows even to the City with the pattern in place and a High to our northeast, and the Wednesday storm will, if it happens, come off the cold air we've been having since Friday. Guess this one will be the most highly regarded storm. Such a conducive pattern in place for big snows indeed, but nail-biting and unlikely scenarios as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z gfs - the positive is atleast its not cutting to our west and giving us a massive rainstorm. The potential looks pretty good imo, and i think the chances are dwindling to see a cutter here due to that first lead off wave suppressing heights enough to get the second storm off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00Z GGEM is a rainstorm for the second storm for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 0z GEFS is more amplified than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z UKMET Still showing quite a potent system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 00z UKMET Wow, that's probably a ridiculous hit for the Poconos. 960mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Euro weak and ots, trough is too broad to get anything going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Hoping for something but reality says this has much chance of producing a big snow event here as the Mets making the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The 00Z ECMWF can best be described as a congo line of potential disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Regardless of what the scores says, the UKMO is a pathetic model for east coast storms. It was way too cold and too far north last week with the precip and with all the big storms this year it was miserable. These bombs its throwing out are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wow, that's probably a ridiculous hit for the Poconos. 960mb? 969mb over Northern NJ. But I think for a the potential for a powerful Nor'easter has diminished somewhat. With shortwave pattern look more progressive on the other models : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 So much is riding on what happens with the first wave. It's impossible to determine what will happen till the first event is resolved. Either way, the fact that the UKMET, a progressive model is showing such a solution raised an eyebrow. I think strong and inland is more likely than weak and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 'Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I swear to god the DGEX never fails to show a kick ass solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The 300mb is telling you that if the shortwave energy can consolidate enough there will be a pretty big storm near that exit region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 upper air patterns look pretty good and have been looking good....at this point its all we can ask for really. details can be and will be fined tuned as the midweek system unfolds. deff an exciting way to leave this winter behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Here's the 06z DGEX snowfall accumulation map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 someone bless the DGEX with holy water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 120hr analogs are honking - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL and so are the 96hr analogs wow http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL 72hr also has some threats in it regarding the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yo John....whats your season total up to? how much do you need to break all time record? i mean, an F2 tornado and Cat2 hurricane before the year is over and you can pretty much book the Apocalypse now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 CMC looks like a big hit at 120hrs for the interior. Heavy QPF over the area but probably rain at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It looks like the SREF's are hinting at a miller b set up where the primary rides through the MW and a secondary pops near the coast beyond its time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 As bluewave stated it's very late in their range, but the ARW members of the SREF are really liking this system at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 As bluewave stated it's very late in their range, but the ARW members of the SREF are really liking this system at 87 hrs they were hitting the first "storm" yesterday too at that time frame. SREFS are just too unreliable at that range. Probably better if they were only run to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 they were hitting the first "storm" yesterday too at that time frame. SREFS are just too unreliable at that range. Probably better if they were only run to 48 hours. They can be a good tool if you use them the right way. At this range, much of it is a toss up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 78 hr NAM has a nice look aloft, might be a bit too disorganized to bring the system up the coast..but it's a nice looking upper air chart with the shortwave diving into the trough to interact with the shortwave that's trailing along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 78 hr NAM has a nice look aloft, might be a bit too disorganized to bring the system up the coast..but it's a nice looking upper air chart with the shortwave diving into the trough to interact with the shortwave that's trailing along the gulf coast. agree. hr 84 continues with the shortwave diving into north TX / OK to the base of the trough. heights rising along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The ARW SREF members are way out of sync with nearly all other SREF members. The coastal low they show Thu afternoon is actually initiated by the first shortwave, which most other models show impacting only the lower mid-Atlantic. They slow down and amplify that shortwave so much that it takes on a negative tilt and begins to phase with the trailing shortwave (the one that most other models use to develop the Fri storm). You can see this if you look at the 500 mb pattern shown for Wed evening by the ARW SREF members (top row) vs. the other SREF members. Notice how much slower ARW members 1, 2, 4 and 5 are with the shortwave - they place it over IN/OH while nearly all other SREF members have it over western PA/NY at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 As of 78h on the 12Z GFS the 500hPa trough seems a bit sharper and deeper and the shortwave over Oklahoma is stronger as well as the energy over North Dakota is much further south and west than the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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