Pet Peeve: "North and West of 287"

[RU848789]

For awhile, I used to hear some pros in the media say X (e.g., the heavier snow) will occur "north and west of the intersection of 287 and 80." This is perfectly fine, as that's N/W of a particular point. However, recently I've heard numerous pros talking about X occurring "north and west of 287" (or even just "north of 287"). 287 is a very convoluted interstate beltway that runs from about Edison, NJ (a mile from my house) westward to Somerville, then NNE-ward to about Parsippany (where it hits 80) and then Mahwah, and then it goes ESE across the Hudson and ends past White Plains. Saying north and west of 287 is meaningless if you don't pick a specific point. Technically, I'm north and west of the intersection of 287 and the NJ TPK, by about a mile. I know they mean north and west of 287/80 (or sometimes simply north of 287, which means north of the northernmost part of 287 in the Hudson Valley), but I'm sure there are casual listeners living in Central Jersey who think they're talking about near them. This is almost as bad as using the unqualified "inland from NYC" which could mean Newark, Dover or Chicago. Educated listeners know that that usually means Dover, roughly, but I'm sure there are people in Fort Lee thinking they're "inland of NYC." I know it takes a few extra seconds to clarify the information being transmitted, but c'mon, at least stop with the nonsensical geography. Rant over.

[masomenos]

287 is a good boundary imo. It separates the elevated interior from the less snowy NJ coastal plain and lower Hudson Valley very well.

[masomenos]

This sums it up pretty well:

287 runs just about perfectly along the transition zone to the snowier inland climo.

[Guest Pamela]

It is not a well known fact that the county of Westchester has been divided by state climatologists...the southern part is a member of the NY state "coastal" climate zone...which includes NYC and L.I.... while the northern part of the county is in the "Hudson Valley" zone...which includes Albany. The actual dividing line is, I believe just a bit to the north of 287....at the so called Westchester "waistline" where the county is at its narrowest...and CT edges furthest west. However, using 287 as a dividing line in not a bad idea...as I've headed north up 684 after riding west along 287, you can tell you are quickly entering a more elevated and colder region.....

[Guest Pamela]

This sums it up pretty well:

287 runs just about perfectly along the transition zone to the snowier inland climo.

I'm not crazy for the snowfall map...southern Westchester, southern Rockland, southern Fairfield, and much of Bergen County average more than 25 - 30 inches of snow per year...maybe up to 10" more...especially in Rockland County.

[masomenos]

I'm not crazy for the snowfall map...southern Westchester, southern Rockland, southern Fairfield, and much of Bergen County average more than 25 - 30 inches of snow per year...maybe up to 10" more...especially in Rockland County.

I think they used the 70-00 30 year average, so there are a lot of bad years in that sample to skew the average, but the gradient is pretty much spot on.

[nzucker]

It is not a well known fact that the county of Westchester has been divided by state climatologists...the southern part is a member of the NY state "coastal" climate zone...which includes NYC and L.I.... while the northern part of the county is in the "Hudson Valley" zone...which includes Albany. The actual dividing line is, I believe just a bit to the north of 287....at the so called Westchester "waistline" where the county is at its narrowest...and CT edges furthest west. However, using 287 as a dividing line in not a bad idea...as I've headed north up 684 after riding west along 287, you can tell you are quickly entering a more elevated and colder region.....

684 and the Taconic do develop some nice elevation farther north...HPN is at 400' above sea level, and the highest elevations in Northern Westchester are near 900'. However, with the surfeit of coastals the last two winters, Southern Westchester has been doing just as well, or better, than places further north. I measured 68" last year and 69.5" this year, and I know someone from Ossining who said he's had quite a bit less because of all the I-95 storms we've seen. I personally love my spot since I get crushed in big coastals and 350' elevation is more than most people have in Southern Westchester and produces a nice gradient with the warmer NYC urban areas. Even if the pattern is bad, we tend to start as snow on at least some of the SWFEs/cutters.

I'm not crazy for the snowfall map...southern Westchester, southern Rockland, southern Fairfield, and much of Bergen County average more than 25 - 30 inches of snow per year...maybe up to 10" more...especially in Rockland County.

Yeah this is a horrible map....has Dobbs Ferry in 25-30" whereas the co-op which has been operational since 1947 has averaged 36". Living away from the developed downtown and at 350', I figure I probably average 38-39" a year. I'm willing to bet that the highest ridges in Northern Westchester see 45-50" per year especially in stretches where coastal storms are prominent. Putnam along the Taconic also probably averages quite a bit.

[masomenos]

684 and the Taconic do develop some nice elevation farther north...HPN is at 400' above sea level, and the highest elevations in Northern Westchester are near 900'. However, with the surfeit of coastals the last two winters, Southern Westchester has been doing just as well, or better, than places further north. I measured 68" last year and 69.5" this year, and I know someone from Ossining who said he's had quite a bit less because of all the I-95 storms we've seen. I personally love my spot since I get crushed in big coastals and 350' elevation is more than most people have in Southern Westchester and produces a nice gradient with the warmer NYC urban areas. Even if the pattern is bad, we tend to start as snow on at least some of the SWFEs/cutters.

Yeah this is a horrible map....has Dobbs Ferry in 25-30" whereas the co-op which has been operational since 1947 has averaged 36". Living away from the developed downtown and at 350', I figure I probably average 38-39" a year. I'm willing to bet that the highest ridges in Northern Westchester see 45-50" per year especially in stretches where coastal storms are prominent. Putnam along the Taconic also probably averages quite a bit.

Wouldn't say it's horrible...it uses the standard 30 year average.

The COOP long term averages match up pretty well too.

[snywx]

I'm not crazy for the snowfall map...southern Westchester, southern Rockland, southern Fairfield, and much of Bergen County average more than 25 - 30 inches of snow per year...maybe up to 10" more...especially in Rockland County.

That map needs serious updating... Doesnt take into consideration of the Hudson Highlands along the Southeastern part of O.C which avg 50". Middle part of the county & along the Hudson avg 45" or so and up by me in the NW section of the county avg >50".

[snywx]

684 and the Taconic do develop some nice elevation farther north...HPN is at 400' above sea level, and the highest elevations in Northern Westchester are near 900'. However, with the surfeit of coastals the last two winters, Southern Westchester has been doing just as well, or better, than places further north. I measured 68" last year and 69.5" this year, and I know someone from Ossining who said he's had quite a bit less because of all the I-95 storms we've seen. I personally love my spot since I get crushed in big coastals and 350' elevation is more than most people have in Southern Westchester and produces a nice gradient with the warmer NYC urban areas. Even if the pattern is bad, we tend to start as snow on at least some of the SWFEs/cutters.

Yeah this is a horrible map....has Dobbs Ferry in 25-30" whereas the co-op which has been operational since 1947 has averaged 36". Living away from the developed downtown and at 350', I figure I probably average 38-39" a year. I'm willing to bet that the highest ridges in Northern Westchester see 45-50" per year especially in stretches where coastal storms are prominent. Putnam along the Taconic also probably averages quite a bit.

Really? For lower Westchester thats pretty amazing..

[nzucker]

That map needs serious updating... Doesnt take into consideration of the Hudson Highlands along the Southeastern part of O.C which avg 50". Middle part of the county & along the Hudson avg 45" or so and up by me in the NW section of the county avg >50".

The problem is that the Hudson Valley region is quite rugged so there's bound to be a lot of broadbrushing. For example, someone in downtown Yonkers at 50' elevation right next to the Hudson River isn't going to average nearly as much as my place at 350' in a wooded area in Dobbs Ferry, yet we're only a few miles apart and it's impossible to draw that distinction on a map of this nature. It gets even more complicated up by your area and in Putnam County where elevations range from near 1300' to almost nothing. Also, this area has a lot of decadal variation so the average really depends on what time period you look at. If you do the late 50s to late 60s, you're going to get a snowy picture. If you do the last 70s to late 80s, not so much.

Really? For lower Westchester thats pretty amazing..

It's not really that amazing if you consider that Central Park's historical average is near 28"/year. It would make sense that inland suburbs with minor elevation could average 10" more per year than Central Park, a station surrounded by water at only 100' in an urban heat island and 25 miles farther south. The Dobbs Ferry co-op has averaged 36" per season since its beginnings in 1947; it also averaged about 40" per season from 47-48 through 69-70 during that historic stretch, and I'm about 150-200' higher and removed from the downtown concrete jungle, so I'd figure adding 2" or so per year is pretty fair. I obviously don't know exactly how much my house averages, but here's an approximation of what we've had in the last ten winters, which have obviously been good ones.

01-02: 10"

02-03: 55"

03-04: 50"

04-05: 50"

05-06: 40"

06-07: 15"

07-08: 20"

08-09: 45"

09-10: 70"

10-11: 70"

Estimated average since 01-02: 42.5"

This is a mix of my own and parents' reasonably precise measurements from the past three years and co-op data from 02-03 through 07-08 when I wasn't measuring, adding on a couple inches for my house to account for the fact that I know I performed better in some marginal events like XMAS 2002 where I measured 11". I think you're underestimating how the big coastals have absolutely crushed this area....here are some high confidence totals from the last few years for the bigger events (some of which weren't Nor'easters but overrunning events), in order of greatest to least...obviously we've been extraordinarily lucky in recent times but you don't need that many of these events to raise the seasonal average by a lot:

2/25/10: 26"

2/12/06: 20"

1/12/11: 14.5"

1/27/11: 14"

12/26/10: 13"

2/10/10: 12.5"

3/2/09: 10"

12/19/09: 8"

12/19:08: 8"

2/21/11: 8"

2/16/10: 6.5"

2/22/08: 6"

[Guest Pamela]

It's not really that amazing if you consider that Central Park's historical average is near 28"/year. It would make sense that inland suburbs with minor elevation could average 10" more per year than Central Park, a station surrounded by water at only 100' in an urban heat island and 25 miles farther south. The Dobbs Ferry co-op has averaged 36" per season since its beginnings in 1947; it also averaged about 40" per season from 47-48 through 69-70 during that historic stretch, and I'm about 150-200' higher and removed from the downtown concrete jungle, so I'd figure adding 2" or so per year is pretty fair. I obviously don't know exactly how much my house averages, but here's an approximation of what we've had in the last ten winters, which have obviously been good ones.

01-02: 10"

02-03: 55"

03-04: 50"

04-05: 50"

05-06: 40"

06-07: 15"

07-08: 20"

08-09: 45"

09-10: 70"

10-11: 70"

Estimated average since 01-02: 42.5"

This is a mix of my own and parents' reasonably precise measurements from the past three years and co-op data from 02-03 through 07-08 when I wasn't measuring, adding on a couple inches for my house to account for the fact that I know I performed better in some marginal events like XMAS 2002 where I measured 11". I think you're underestimating how the big coastals have absolutely crushed this area....here are some high confidence totals from the last few years for the bigger events (some of which weren't Nor'easters but overrunning events), in order of greatest to least...obviously we've been extraordinarily lucky in recent times but you don't need that many of these events to raise the seasonal average by a lot:

2/25/10: 26"

2/12/06: 20"

1/12/11: 14.5"

1/27/11: 14"

12/26/10: 13"

2/10/10: 12.5"

3/2/09: 10"

12/19/09: 8"

12/19:08: 8"

2/21/11: 8"

2/16/10: 6.5"

2/22/08: 6"

The last 11 years are beyond crazy....Upton has averaged 43.8" of snow per year since 2000-01 winter...around 13" above average...an insane departure from normal for that many years sampled.

[Diego]

Really? For lower Westchester thats pretty amazing..

38 to 39 may be a little bit high, but may not be that far off of what a long term average would have been over the past 140 years if reasonably accurate statistics were available (35 inches would be my estimate), taking into account a slight upward spike of a couple to maybe several inches due to his elevation (when compared to the near sea level location of the village of Dobbs Ferry), and the snowy decade from 2000/01 to and including this season.

[snywx]

The problem is that the Hudson Valley region is quite rugged so there's bound to be a lot of broadbrushing. For example, someone in downtown Yonkers at 50' elevation right next to the Hudson River isn't going to average nearly as much as my place at 350' in a wooded area in Dobbs Ferry, yet we're only a few miles apart and it's impossible to draw that distinction on a map of this nature. It gets even more complicated up by your area and in Putnam County where elevations range from near 1300' to almost nothing. Also, this area has a lot of decadal variation so the average really depends on what time period you look at. If you do the late 50s to late 60s, you're going to get a snowy picture. If you do the last 70s to late 80s, not so much.

It's not really that amazing if you consider that Central Park's historical average is near 28"/year. It would make sense that inland suburbs with minor elevation could average 10" more per year than Central Park, a station surrounded by water at only 100' in an urban heat island and 25 miles farther south. The Dobbs Ferry co-op has averaged 36" per season since its beginnings in 1947; it also averaged about 40" per season from 47-48 through 69-70 during that historic stretch, and I'm about 150-200' higher and removed from the downtown concrete jungle, so I'd figure adding 2" or so per year is pretty fair. I obviously don't know exactly how much my house averages, but here's an approximation of what we've had in the last ten winters, which have obviously been good ones.

01-02: 10"

02-03: 55"

03-04: 50"

04-05: 50"

05-06: 40"

06-07: 15"

07-08: 20"

08-09: 45"

09-10: 70"

10-11: 70"

Estimated average since 01-02: 42.5"

Yrs I highlighted in your comment are pretty impressive for that area.. My 9 yr avg ( including this yr) is 66.2"

[snywx]

38 to 39 may be a little bit high, but may not be that far off of what a long term average would have been over the past 140 years if reasonably accurate statistics were available (35 inches would be my estimate), taking into account a slight upward spike of a couple to maybe several inches due to his elevation (when compared to the near sea level location of the village of Dobbs Ferry), and the snowy decade from 2000/01 to and including this season.

I agree.. 30-35" would of been my guess for that area

[snywx]

The last 11 years are beyond crazy....Upton has averaged 43.8" of snow per year since 2000-01 winter...around 13" above average...an insane departure from normal for that many years sampled.

I would think E LI would avg more than lower Westchester..

[winterwarlock]

and the thread was diverting off the topic. RU#s you are from NJ, its not a good place to be over here. The Philly board is the place to hang out

[nzucker]

Yrs I highlighted in your comment are pretty impressive for that area.. My 9 yr avg ( including this yr) is 66.2"

That's a very impressive number but you're in a great spot with nearly 1000' of elevation and well NW of NYC. I doubt your snowfall average is at all representative of downtown Middletown, which probably averages around 45" per year although we've all had a fortunate streak in recent times. When I drive Route 17 to get to the Poconos where my parents have a vacation home, I generally notice that there isn't too much increase on Route 17 from the I-87 interchange at Harriman until you ascend the Catskill Escarpment and get to around Exit 114; the snowfall rapidly escalates when you hit that massive hill before Monticello. You can also see clear changes in forest mix as you ascend the Catskills as I notice far more birch and pine at that elevation than in the Hudson Valley; it's a very interesting transition both for nature lovers and weather lovers, and I consider myself both. You probably gain about 20" snowfall per year from Middletown to Monticello though I don't know the exact numbers.

Yes, the three 50" winters in a row were great and now back-to-back near 70" winters is just absurd. 02-03 and 03-04 are among my favorite winters here: we got around 15" in PDII and had extremely sustained cold in January/February 2003; we also did well in the December 2003 storm and then had a brutal stretch of cold with numerous juicy clippers, each one dropping 2-4", in January 2004. I remember waiting for rides outside the HS in 02-03, just brutal, and not being able to take a shortcut through the local golf course while walking home because the snow depth was too much to handle, even in boots, a problem I'd never experienced in middle school as the only good storm was December 2000 which was over the holidays. 09-10 had the February blitz with 48" here that month, and this winter has had decent events in all months but obviously January stands out with over 40"...I was worried I wouldn't pass last year which would be tragic considering how much more of a real winter this has been, but thankfully the 2.5" yesterday assuaged my concerns, seasonal total now at 69.5"...

I agree.. 30-35" would of been my guess for that area

I think places like downtown Yonkers and those communities immediately along the LI Sound in Westchester are probably in the 30-35" range. You start getting into the NYC urban heat island pretty heavily as you drive south into Yonkers, literally goes from forested suburbs with ample nature preserves (like the one with the 400' hills behind my house) and open spaces to a concrete jungle within a few minutes. I also think places in the SE part of the County generally mix a lot more on marginal SW flow events with easterly surface winds, especially early in the season, due to the influence of LI Sound. I can remember some sharp gradients setting up in Westchester in January 2009, especially 1/28 SW flow event, and those areas seem to be on the losing side generally. You can ask SnowLover11....interestingly, this year has been the exact opposite with heavy banding hitting SE Westchester during the Boxing Day Blizzard and the 1/27 Nor'easter, events in which I received rather pedestrian totals. He has had about 75" this year to my 70", whereas I had 68" to his mid 50s total in Winter 09-10.

I would think E LI would avg more than lower Westchester..

No, definitely not. The highest totals on LI are in the central North Shore, but they only average around 30", the highest hilltops at 300' might squeeze out like 32". Snowfall rapidly declines as you move towards the Twin Forks due to the excessive maritime influence. Of course LI did better in suppressed Miller B winters like 04-05, where they had around 70" and I had 50", but that's the exception and not the rule. I believe every place in Westchester averages at least as much as the snowiest spot on LI, and way more than the eastern parts of LI which are probably around 25"/year. Just think about it....Westchester has more latitude, many more spots with higher elevations including 400' hills in Southern Westchester and 900' hills in Northern Westchester, and it generally has less urban development than LI does in its areas which could average a decent amount of snowfall (ie not the Twin Forks/East End which is rural but too maritime in climate). There's just been a ridiculous gradient in a lot of overrunning events: JFK/LI South Shore had 2" in 12/19/08 whereas I had 8", South Shore had almost nothing in 1/28/09 whereas Dobbs Ferry had 5", LI/NYC had about 3" in 2/21 this year whereas I had 8", South Shore of LI had almost no accumulation in 1/18 this year whereas I had 1.5", etc. Sticking out into the Atlantic is just not an advantage in most storms, especially since our area's climate implies many marginal snowfalls each winter where a few degrees can make a large difference.

[nzucker]

38 to 39 may be a little bit high, but may not be that far off of what a long term average would have been over the past 140 years if reasonably accurate statistics were available (35 inches would be my estimate), taking into account a slight upward spike of a couple to maybe several inches due to his elevation (when compared to the near sea level location of the village of Dobbs Ferry), and the snowy decade from 2000/01 to and including this season.

I'm talking about the period from 1947-present where Dobbs Ferry co-op has averaged 35-36", and I think adding 2-3" is appropriate here. That gets us to 38-39". I don't see why people find this unusual as Central Park averages nearly 30" and they do terribly compared to here.

[bmc10]

287 is an awesome reference point for Bergen County. I live just NW of 287 in the higher terrain of Bergen. The line is usually a good reference point when determining snowfall, especially in marginal events. Take yesterday for example. I had 3 inches of snow, if you crossed 287 into the next town over, Wyckoff, snow was minimal, and one more town over (Hawthorne) there was no snow practically. For Bergen 287 is a good point because areas west of it average over 500ft, which in situations like yesterday can make all the difference. I average about 40-45 inches of snow a year, areas to my east see significantly less. It is a big dividing line, at least for Bergen.

[snywx]

That's a very impressive number but you're in a great spot with nearly 1000' of elevation and well NW of NYC. I doubt your snowfall average is at all representative of downtown Middletown, which probably averages around 45" per year although we've all had a fortunate streak in recent times. When I drive Route 17 to get to the Poconos where my parents have a vacation home, I generally notice that there isn't too much increase on Route 17 from the I-87 interchange at Harriman until you ascend the Catskill Escarpment and get to around Exit 114; the snowfall rapidly escalates when you hit that massive hill before Monticello. You can also see clear changes in forest mix as you ascend the Catskills as I notice far more birch and pine at that elevation than in the Hudson Valley; it's a very interesting transition both for nature lovers and weather lovers, and I consider myself both. You probably gain about 20" snowfall per year from Middletown to Monticello though I don't know the exact numbers.

Well 66.2" isnt even close to my 30 yr avg..lol Im more in the area of 50-55". Downtown Middletown averages about 50"... And yes once you pass exit 120 ( Middletown) on Rt 17 you notice dramatic changes in both scenery & climate. Elevation just past Wurtsboro increases dramatically and so do snowfall averages. 20" per yr is about right from Middletown ( 600') to Monticello ( 1500') and thats only about a 20 min drive. I would think they avg in the range of 70-75"..

[Dark Energy]

My pet peeve as William has said b4 is when tv weather readers say colder N and W. What about the pine barrens of LI???? It gets cold there too!!

[Guest Pamela]

I would think E LI would avg more than lower Westchester..

Nope, have to basically agree with NZ's response. Even the snowiest spots on L.I. (the hilly towns on the North Shore) average at best 32 - 33 inches per year. Most of southern Westchester averages at least 35"...most of northern Westchester at least 40"...with the higher spots closer to 45". And far eastern L.I. (the Twin Forks) generally average just 24" - 28" per year.

The absolute snowiest spot on Long Island may be the summit of Jaynes Hill in Huntington (elevation 401 feet). It is in West Hills County Park and I used to take measurements up there. Incomplete evidence suggets the average is 35" right at the top...

The absolute snowiest spot on Long Island might be a fraction snowier than the absolute least snowiest spot in Westchester...but that's about it.

As I mentioned before...over the last 11 years, parts of central L.I. have been on an unreal run...averaging around 43" per year during the period....probably more than parts of Westchester and parts of N. Jersey as well. However this is not reflective of the long term pattern...as Westchester is generally the snowier locale over the long haul.

[Guest Pamela]

My pet peeve as William has said b4 is when tv weather readers say colder N and W. What about the pine barrens of LI???? It gets cold there too!!

Yep..have to agree. Best example might be the morning of Jan 22, 1961...Upton dropped to -23 F while NYC was generally above zero...

http://www.bnl.gov/w...01-jantemp.html

[NJwinter23]

I drive up 287 and then up rt. 206 every day, and plenty of times this winter during snow/mixed events...**** hit the fan several times (at least in terms of roadway conditions as soon as I got to the I-78 intersection and/or just off the highway heading northwest on 206. this recent storm was a perfect example

[phlwx]

My pet peeve as William has said b4 is when tv weather readers say colder N and W. What about the pine barrens of LI???? It gets cold there too!!

Unless a TV station gets into forecasting lows for most every town on a map (the LA stations do this quite a bit because of the microclimate issue being much more dominant out there than on the East Coast) you're going to see the gloss over and broad brush application of forecasting take shape.

Example of an LA station forecast:

[Rainshadow]

38 to 39 may be a little bit high, but may not be that far off of what a long term average would have been over the past 140 years if reasonably accurate statistics were available (35 inches would be my estimate), taking into account a slight upward spike of a couple to maybe several inches due to his elevation (when compared to the near sea level location of the village of Dobbs Ferry), and the snowy decade from 2000/01 to and including this season.

Lived either in the North Bronx and/or Yonkers for 30 some odd years and this does appear about right. Too much topography to catch every nook and cranny in that map. Even though we only lived in Yorktown for three years, on many occasions I remember seeing the difference going from the Croton Harmon Station (near sea level) to our home at about 600 feet. Before this decade, the generic expression was rain changed to snow upon passing north of the Hawthorne Interchange.

[BxEngine]

Good discussion guys....why winterwarlock is still allowed to muck up the forum is beyond me though.

[gravitylover]

I'm willing to bet that the highest ridges in Northern Westchester see 45-50" per year especially in stretches where coastal storms are prominent. Putnam along the Taconic also probably averages quite a bit.

I'm about 1000 feet north of the border into Putnam and since I moved into this house in '96 my average is closer to 60" than 50". Elevation helps and my E/NE exposure also helps me to keep snowing a bit after the main precip body has pulled through. I drive up the Sprain/Taconic everyday and the breaks are Scarsdale/Bronxville then again as you go over 287 and once more as you pass 202 in Yorktown. Each of these zones has a distinctly different general weather pattern.

[Parsley]

My pet peeve as William has said b4 is when tv weather readers say colder N and W. What about the pine barrens of LI???? It gets cold there too!!

Yes, central and interior portions of eastern LI have always gotten the shaft on nighttime lows, but some would argue, "who (or what population) actually lives in the Pine Barrens region"? Not many people, so its more of an afterthought to most media forecasters.

With that said, the under-forecasting of nighttime lows by media across Suffolk County has always irked me. I notice when I visit home that the Metro Weather (channel 61 or 62?) always seems to mention the "colder" Pine Barrens, so atleast they have a clue.