wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Hopefully it's not too early to discuss, but many of the AFDs in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley are mentioning the potential for next Sunday and the following Monday for a storm ejecting out of the Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Btw, if this storm flames out, I promise to not start any future winter storm threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Don't worry. The new standard seems to be 10 days out or earlier. You're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Its on all the models; if anyone wants to complain about you starting this thread they're wasting their time, so I think this thread is certainly appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Don't worry. The new standard seems to be 10 days out or earlier. You're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I don't see the big deal on starting threads 7 days out. I think we all know the variability of possible outcomes of storms this far out. Afraid this storm will head too far north. Looks like the late week storm could bring the block back in time to not allow this storm to cut too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Western lakes cutter on the latest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 GFS still has a CAD signature on the eastern side of the storm, although it's weaker this run than the last 2 or 3. Way too early to write this one off. And even by chance it ends up rain, there are a couple of weather makers on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Good thing the GGEM has a warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Good thing the GGEM has a warm bias What does the GGEM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Be nice if we could elongate that RNA toward the East a bit more, and have a SE ridge that is just strong enough to make the storm track perfect for this area. Hopefully not an overpowering SE Ridge that it forces us into the warm sector.. This would be a more traditional "La Nina" like -PNA/SE ridge pattern, rather then the odd occurence of -NAO/+PNA/-ENSO we have seen much of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 What does the GGEM show? Southerly flow of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Nice Reload/Pooling of Cold Air in the Arctic/NW Canada, could come into play during March... the +AO isn't necessarily a bad thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 GFS would take care of anything left this torch missed. Looks interesting after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Models are going to be flipping and flopping like a salmon out of water over the next few days. 0z EURO/6z GFS back to a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I fully expect to get rained on at this point, but, we'll keep watching. Whatever the outcome, it looks to be interesting beyond that. Wondering if we might finish up Feb with some nicer weather, and wind up with a colder March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 12Z GFS looks to have the low going through Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Looks REAL close here...very wet (GFS), but looks to be right around freezing....Going to be one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Looks like a classic winter to spring transition pattern setting up. Smart money says the dominant baroclinic zone sets up northwest or here and i can live with that as long as things get active. Wouldn't mind a nice soaker with this storm to wash away some of the salt and grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 apparently the Euro is currently progging the low to track across Northern Illinois, and is a bit faster than the GFS. I would say book it! The Euro is out of range, as are most other models, but I would still bank on it staying pretty consistent overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I think this storm with the Highs to the northeast and northwest would be your classic ice storm setup, this is the type of storm where you don't take the 850mb temps to equal warm that the surface, as the low level flow preceding the storm would be out of the NE to E with cold air being funneled in from Ontario and Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is south of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 As would be expected mnweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I think this storm with the Highs to the northeast and northwest would be your classic ice storm setup, this is the type of storm where you don't take the 850mb temps to equal warm that the surface, as the low level flow preceding the storm would be out of the NE to E with cold air being funneled in from Ontario and Quebec Yeah if we can get the storm not to track over our heads. never seen a east or NE wind with a track over me. Suppose it could start as a brief wintry event but then flip to rain as modeled on the euro.. Week out yet anyways lol.. It could end up being nothing, a nice track between LAF and Indy or even cut west of La crosse. My money would be on nothing or a cutter west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 This looks like primarily a rain maker for Illinois and eastern Iowa, but the WAA precip may provide some wintry weather depending on how quick the surface can warm up. It's been awhile since MSP and LaCrosse had a good snow, so they're about due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 As would be expected mnweather Why? Is that a bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I am no expert but it seems that way in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Duh, 18 UTC at present is making me nervous regarding serious icing for next Monday here in Michiana...heck, anywhere along the I-80 corridor in IL and IN it seems. Glad it's a week away at least. This storm looks to be moisture laden rather than starved if models sniff out parameters correctly. For real eye candy, however, look at the 18 UTC 324 hr. An absolute bomb for the Midwest and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 GFS ensembles may not be able to help us sort out some of the run to run continuity problems the OP GFS is having. 18z ensembles are much colder than the 12z ensembles, and have maintained little continuity themselves. It's good though that they all seem to be showing a storm. At this point in time, that's most of the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Duh, 18 UTC at present is making me nervous regarding serious icing for next Monday here in Michiana...heck, anywhere along the I-80 corridor in IL and IN it seems. Glad it's a week away at least. This storm looks to be moisture laden rather than starved if models sniff out parameters correctly. For real eye candy, however, look at the 18 UTC 324 hr. An absolute bomb for the Midwest and Great Lakes. That 324 hour monster is very nice. I think it has been on a couple runs now. lol. P005 is nice on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.