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2011 - Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm Thread


Kmlwx

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Bethesda sometimes has a pretty messed up perception of the world lol. Guess he hasn't met some of the older folks on here that can have a plenty good time. His life is clearly over and not fun anymore after his 21st birthday. No more good times. :arrowhead:

Personally, I thought it was a reference to 2012 and all of that. You can't just indulge in that stuff though, there is so much more....

Sorry, back on topic!

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If there are tornadoes today, I'm betting it would be along the line of storms moving up from VA... decent SFC wind convergence along the occluded front there, with a tongue of instability getting pulled in with the moisture. Other cells may pop up, but I would imagine that it would be much more difficult for them to gain rotation if they weren't positioned near the front. There is another subtle SFC wind convergence zone further north, but it's considerably weaker and in more stable air.

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If there are tornadoes today, I'm betting it would be along the line of storms moving up from VA... decent SFC wind convergence along the occluded front there, with a tongue of instability getting pulled in with the moisture. Other cells may pop up, but I would imagine that it would be much more difficult for them to gain rotation if they weren't positioned near the front. There is another subtle SFC wind convergence zone further north, but it's considerably weaker and in more stable air.

I 'like' the stuff south of that, developing in the sunnier air on the north side of the upper low. Seems that stuff would have a better shot to be briefly discrete etc.

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Updated LWX AFD as of 1045 AM

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IS MORE OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND

SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS IN THE MIX AS THE DAY

PROGRESSES. WHAT LITTLE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER

THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL HELP LINES OF WEAK CONVECTION TO BECOME

STRONGER LATER THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY INTO THE EVE. THE ENVIRONMENT

IS A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL PROFILE - NEARLY SATURATED TO THE

TROPOPAUSE. THESE LINES OF STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR

NOT ONLY EMBEDDED HIGH RAIN RATES AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BUT

A LOW TORNADO THREAT...AS WELL AS LOW HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND

THREATS AS WELL.

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anything discrete down south would have a hard time gaining rotation with such little shear. It would be more of a wind/hail threat than anything. I don't think there's much chance of a discrete supercell, more line-segments that may spin-up a brief tornado on the end of a bow or right along the front. And even then they'd most likely be ragged and rain-wrapped. Not much good for chasing.

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anything discrete down south would have a hard time gaining rotation with such little shear. It would be more of a wind/hail threat than anything. I don't think there's much chance of a discrete supercell, more line-segments that may spin-up a brief tornado on the end of a bow or right along the front. And even then they'd most likely be ragged and rain-wrapped. Not much good for chasing.

Pretty much my thoughts as well, which is why I'm not clamoring to get out chasing today. Of course, that will change if something pops-up locally :) Watching circulation try to form up on the northern end of the lines will be an interesting change of pace.

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anything discrete down south would have a hard time gaining rotation with such little shear. It would be more of a wind/hail threat than anything. I don't think there's much chance of a discrete supercell, more line-segments that may spin-up a brief tornado on the end of a bow or right along the front. And even then they'd most likely be ragged and rain-wrapped. Not much good for chasing.

yeah i suppose. i guess im thinking more it would be something that popped there and moved north to intersect the zone mentioned. i've only watched this all with one eye anyway... i was hoping to take a weather vacation right now.

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mcd0796.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1014 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN VA...SRN MD AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171514Z - 171715Z

STRONGER AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE

AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AMBIENT

VORTICITY ATTENDANT TO THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING NNWWD FROM CENTRAL NC

AND SURFACE VORTICITY FOCUSED INVOF TWO WARM FRONTS OVER VA...A LOW

PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL NC /40 SSW GSO/ WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING

SLOWLY NWD. ONE WARM FRONT EXTENDED NNEWD FROM THIS LOW INTO WRN VA

/NEAR SHD/ AND THEN THROUGH SERN PA TO ALONG/S OF LONG ISLAND. A

SECOND WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY /PER VISIBLE IMAGERY

AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ EXTENDED NEWD INTO CENTRAL VA AND THEN

STRETCHED SEWD TO JUST N OF ORF. SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF THE

SECOND WARM FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S

TO AROUND 70...EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING THE WEAK CAP THAT WAS PRESENT

ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SUPPORTING CU DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE

IMAGERY. DESPITE THE DIABATIC HEATING...MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES

/6-6.5 C PER KM/ ARE TENDING TO INHIBIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE

RATES AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH MORE

PERSISTENT STORMS TODAY.

AT 15Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS

MOVING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL VA WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG THE

SECONDARY WARM FRONT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TSTMS WERE ALSO

TRACKING NWD THROUGH NERN NC WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY ATTENDANT TO

STRONGER DCVA WITH A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE NERN

PERIPHERY OF THE NC CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL

INCREASE AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS SPREAD ACROSS VA/NRN NC

SUPPORTING PRIMARILY MULTICELLS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO

PRECLUDE GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST

A WW IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 05/17/2011

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 35147612 35957762 36187967 36248036 36738061 38117936

38717844 38917760 38697667 38357631 37607579 36277581

35147612

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

322 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE

SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE

STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF

STAFFORD TO 6 MILES WEST OF STAFFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

STAFFORD...

TRIANGLE...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

334 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NELSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF

HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM

WAS LOCATED NEAR SCHUYLER...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF BENT CREEK...

AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SCHUYLER...

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